132 Oakleaf Dr · Jordan, NY 13166

$139,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · SingleFamily · 50 Days on market

Built 2023

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.3/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

AMAZING BRAND NEW HOME in PREMIER COMMUNITY. Opportunity for Homeownership with SO MANY UPGRADES * Lender Financing Programs may be available for Buyers with credit score 630+ with as little as 5% down payment = own for similar cost of renting or less if the STAR rebate is considered * Lot rent of $465 INCLUDES REAL ESTATE TAXES on the home * Great Open Floorplan with 6’ Open Porch and UPGRADES * 2 Bedroom/2 Bathroom * Stainless Steel Appliance Package-includes Gas stove, Refrigerator, Dishwasher, Microwave over the Stove * Upgraded Kitchen and Bathroom Cabinets * Large Kitchen Island * Numerous Upgrades some of which include Ceramic Tile Fiberglass Master Shower, Upgraded Carpeting in Living Room and Bedrooms, Architectural Shingle Roof, Upgraded Insulation, Farmer’s Kitchen Sink, OSB under Vinyl Siding, Upgraded Interior Molding, Cable Jacks in Living Room and Bedrooms, 40 Gal Hot Water Tank * LED Lighting and Living Room Ceiling Fan, and on and on. 25lb Dog limit and 2 pet limit in Park. Will Have Brand New Asphalt Driveway and Hydroseeded Lawn. Sale Price includes NYS Sales Tax on Home. Home can NOT be removed from Shadybrook Estates. 630 Minimum Credit Score without exception.

Key facts

• Upgraded carpeting
• 6 foot open porch
• Gas stove

Tags

• 6 FOOT OPEN PORCH
• GAS STOVE
• FARMHOUSE SINK
• UPGRADED CARPETING
• ARCHITECTURAL SHINGLE ROOF
• UPGRADED INSULATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $334 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $139k).
• Recommended offer: $135k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 1.1% in Jordan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#581 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Jordan-Elbridge Central School District (rural): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #277 of 590 in NY (top 47%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 161 units permitted in Cayuga County in 2024 (65 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($961 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Cayuga County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($135k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $110k; 26% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $134,830 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.34%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.49×
• Total profit: $97,028
• Equity at exit: $125,222

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.92×
• Total profit: $269,148
• Equity at exit: $270,046

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13166

• Home prices YoY: 5.8%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,723 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$174 /mo · $2,085/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $334

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,300

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $430	-5% $382	+0% $334	+5% $286	+10% $238
Rent	-10% $198	-5% $266	+0% $334	+5% $402	+10% $470
Rate	-1.0pp $404	-0.5pp $369	base $334	+0.5pp $298	+1.0pp $261

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-03-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-30
   listed $139,000 Active
3. 2023-09-26
   soldstatus $109,995 Closed Sale or Rented 1227-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1227 chars)

   AMAZING BRAND NEW HOME in PREMIER COMMUNITY. Opportunity for Homeownership with SO MANY UPGRADES * Lender Financing Programs may be available for Buyers with credit score 630+ with as little as 5% down payment = own for similar cost of renting or less if the STAR rebate is considered * Lot rent of $465 INCLUDES REAL ESTATE TAXES on the home * Great Open Floorplan with 6’ Open Porch and UPGRADES * 2 Bedroom/2 Bathroom * Stainless Steel Appliance Package-includes Gas stove, Refrigerator, Dishwasher, Microwave over the Stove * Upgraded Kitchen and Bathroom Cabinets * Large Kitchen Island * Numerous Upgrades some of which include Ceramic Tile Fiberglass Master Shower, Upgraded Carpeting in Living Room and Bedrooms, Architectural Shingle Roof, Upgraded Insulation, Farmer’s Kitchen Sink, OSB under Vinyl Siding, Upgraded Interior Molding, Cable Jacks in Living Room and Bedrooms, 40 Gal Hot Water Tank * LED Lighting and Living Room Ceiling Fan, and on and on. 25lb Dog limit and 2 pet limit in Park. Will Have Brand New Asphalt Driveway and Hydroseeded Lawn. Sale Price includes NYS Sales Tax on Home. Home can NOT be removed from Shadybrook Estates. 630 Minimum Credit Score without exception.

4. 2023-09-10
   status Pending Sale 1227-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1227 chars)

   AMAZING BRAND NEW HOME in PREMIER COMMUNITY. Opportunity for Homeownership with SO MANY UPGRADES * Lender Financing Programs may be available for Buyers with credit score 630+ with as little as 5% down payment = own for similar cost of renting or less if the STAR rebate is considered * Lot rent of $465 INCLUDES REAL ESTATE TAXES on the home * Great Open Floorplan with 6’ Open Porch and UPGRADES * 2 Bedroom/2 Bathroom * Stainless Steel Appliance Package-includes Gas stove, Refrigerator, Dishwasher, Microwave over the Stove * Upgraded Kitchen and Bathroom Cabinets * Large Kitchen Island * Numerous Upgrades some of which include Ceramic Tile Fiberglass Master Shower, Upgraded Carpeting in Living Room and Bedrooms, Architectural Shingle Roof, Upgraded Insulation, Farmer’s Kitchen Sink, OSB under Vinyl Siding, Upgraded Interior Molding, Cable Jacks in Living Room and Bedrooms, 40 Gal Hot Water Tank * LED Lighting and Living Room Ceiling Fan, and on and on. 25lb Dog limit and 2 pet limit in Park. Will Have Brand New Asphalt Driveway and Hydroseeded Lawn. Sale Price includes NYS Sales Tax on Home. Home can NOT be removed from Shadybrook Estates. 630 Minimum Credit Score without exception.

5. 2023-09-03
   listed $109,995 Active 1227-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1227 chars)

   AMAZING BRAND NEW HOME in PREMIER COMMUNITY. Opportunity for Homeownership with SO MANY UPGRADES * Lender Financing Programs may be available for Buyers with credit score 630+ with as little as 5% down payment = own for similar cost of renting or less if the STAR rebate is considered * Lot rent of $465 INCLUDES REAL ESTATE TAXES on the home * Great Open Floorplan with 6’ Open Porch and UPGRADES * 2 Bedroom/2 Bathroom * Stainless Steel Appliance Package-includes Gas stove, Refrigerator, Dishwasher, Microwave over the Stove * Upgraded Kitchen and Bathroom Cabinets * Large Kitchen Island * Numerous Upgrades some of which include Ceramic Tile Fiberglass Master Shower, Upgraded Carpeting in Living Room and Bedrooms, Architectural Shingle Roof, Upgraded Insulation, Farmer’s Kitchen Sink, OSB under Vinyl Siding, Upgraded Interior Molding, Cable Jacks in Living Room and Bedrooms, 40 Gal Hot Water Tank * LED Lighting and Living Room Ceiling Fan, and on and on. 25lb Dog limit and 2 pet limit in Park. Will Have Brand New Asphalt Driveway and Hydroseeded Lawn. Sale Price includes NYS Sales Tax on Home. Home can NOT be removed from Shadybrook Estates. 630 Minimum Credit Score without exception.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,671
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$2,085
• − Insurance: −$1,492
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,654
• − Management: −$1,654
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable income: $1,956
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$469
• After-tax cash flow: $3,536/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jordan-Elbridge Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3615990
• Math proficiency: 57% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $55,408
• Composite: 49.11/100
• National rank: #2049
• State rank: #277 of 590 in NY

Livability — Jordan

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #581
• US rank: #10506

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,667

Population outlook (Cayuga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 74,820 people
• By 2030: 72,402 · -3.2%
• By 2040: 66,917 · -10.6%
• By 2050: 61,007 · -18.5%
• By 2075: 48,047 · -35.8%
• By 2100: 34,512 · -53.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Iranian 5% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cayuga

• 2024 margin: R (+13.0) · D 43.5% · R 56.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.5pp · 2024: -13.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.0 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.2 2012: D+10.8 2008: D+8.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.93%
• Current HPI: 347.8499
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+26.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-21 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-01-30 Listed $139,000 CNYIS
• 2023-09-26 Sold (MLS) $109,995 UNYREIS
• 2023-09-10 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2023-09-03 Listed $109,995 UNYREIS