2836 Fulop · Lake Isabella, CA 93240

$135,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 900 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 123 Days on market

Built 1965 6,990 sqft lot $150/sqft · 22% below area Est $172k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This charming 2 bed, 1 bath home sits on a quiet Lake Isabella street and delivers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience. Enjoy a spacious 2 car garage for all your toys, tools, or weekend adventure gear. The layout feels open and inviting with easy living flow throughout. Just minutes from the lake, shopping, dining, and year round outdoor fun. This property makes an ideal full time home, vacation getaway, or investment opportunity. A great find in a great location come see the potential and make it yours.

Key facts

• 6,990 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1965

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $316 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 7.4% in Lake Isabella — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#999 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A, cost of living B+; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Kernville Union Elementary (rural): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #1,128 of 1,400 in CA (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 135 active listings in the ZIP; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (5.5% local appreciation)).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $135k implies a 350% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 11→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.03%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $172,208
• List price: $135,000
• Delta: -21.61%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2612 Flower St	0.22mi	2/1.0	926 (+3%)	18mo	$186,800	$202	70
2013 Kem	0.45mi	2/1.0	926 (+3%)	8mo	$115,000	$124	67
2817 Steensen St	0.11mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,026 (+14%)	21mo	$130,000	$127	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.55% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.47×
• Total profit: $55,489
• Equity at exit: $81,059

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.93×
• Total profit: $148,416
• Equity at exit: $143,817

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93240

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,450 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $780/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $316

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,050

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $393	-5% $354	+0% $316	+5% $278	+10% $240
Rent	-10% $202	-5% $259	+0% $316	+5% $373	+10% $431
Rate	-1.0pp $384	-0.5pp $350	base $316	+0.5pp $281	+1.0pp $246

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $135,000 Active 123 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   price $135,000 Active 120 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 120 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 119 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 118 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 117 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $150,000 Active 115 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 114 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $150,000 Active 112 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $150,000 Active 111 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $150,000 Active 110 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $150,000 Active 109 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $150,000 Active 106 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $150,000 Active 105 DOM
15. 2026-06-03
    days on market $150,000 Active 104 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 103 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 102 DOM
18. 2026-05-04
    status Active 520-char remark

    Show marketing remark (520 chars)

    This charming 2 bed, 1 bath home sits on a quiet Lake Isabella street and delivers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience. Enjoy a spacious 2 car garage for all your toys, tools, or weekend adventure gear. The layout feels open and inviting with easy living flow throughout. Just minutes from the lake, shopping, dining, and year round outdoor fun. This property makes an ideal full time home, vacation getaway, or investment opportunity. A great find in a great location come see the potential and make it yours.

19. 2026-04-21
    status Pending 520-char remark

    Show marketing remark (520 chars)

    This charming 2 bed, 1 bath home sits on a quiet Lake Isabella street and delivers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience. Enjoy a spacious 2 car garage for all your toys, tools, or weekend adventure gear. The layout feels open and inviting with easy living flow throughout. Just minutes from the lake, shopping, dining, and year round outdoor fun. This property makes an ideal full time home, vacation getaway, or investment opportunity. A great find in a great location come see the potential and make it yours.

20. 2026-02-18
    listed $150,000 Active 519-char remark

    Show marketing remark (519 chars)

    This charming 2 bed, 1 bath home sits on a quiet Lake Isabella street and delivers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience. Enjoy a spacious 2 car garage for all your toys, tools, or weekend adventure gear. The layout feels open and inviting with easy living flow throughout. Just minutes from the lake, shopping, dining, and year round outdoor fun. This property makes an ideal full time home, vacation getaway, or investment opportunity. A great find in a great location come see the potential and make it yours.

21. 2026-02-09
    listed $150,000 Active 520-char remark

    Show marketing remark (520 chars)

    This charming 2 bed, 1 bath home sits on a quiet Lake Isabella street and delivers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience. Enjoy a spacious 2 car garage for all your toys, tools, or weekend adventure gear. The layout feels open and inviting with easy living flow throughout. Just minutes from the lake, shopping, dining, and year round outdoor fun. This property makes an ideal full time home, vacation getaway, or investment opportunity. A great find in a great location come see the potential and make it yours.

22. 1993-03-01
    soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $780 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,026 · $86/mo
• Expected delta: +$246/yr (+$20/mo · 31.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 11 d/yr ≥100°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 24 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,397
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$780
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,392
• − Management: −$1,392
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $1,669
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$401
• After-tax cash flow: $3,393/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kernville Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0619590
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $29,896
• Composite: 25.91/100
• National rank: #12766
• State rank: #1128 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Lake Isabella

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #999
• US rank: #24814

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Isabella, CA
• City population: 5,622
• Population (ZIP): 5,622

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 5% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Portuguese 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Korean 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.55%
• Current HPI: 341.2481
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+400.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Relisted — SSMLS
• 2026-04-21 Pending — SSMLS
• 2026-02-18 Listed $150,000 CRMLS
• 2026-02-09 Listed $150,000 SSMLS
• 1993-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $780 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.