Lancia's Riverdale II Plan · Fort Wayne, IN 46818

$273,400

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,149 sqft · SingleFamily · 398 Days on market

Excellent condition $45/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Cash flow +5.5/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

THIS IS A SAMPLE PLAN - THIS IS NOT A HOME FOR SALE. Lancia's Riverdale II has a very open first floor with all bedrooms upstairs. Large walk-in Pantry has wood shelving. Kitchen island with breakfast bar overlooks Nook and large Great Room. Office or Bonus Room off Foyer with french doors. Laundry room upstairs. Large Owner Suite Bedroom 1 has walk-in closet, dual sink vanity, and 5' shower.

Key facts

• Laundry room
• Owner suite
• Kitchen island

Tags

• WALK-IN PANTRY
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• BREAKFAST BAR
• OFFICE OR BONUS ROOM
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• OWNER SUITE

🏗️ New construction. The $273,400 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $387,690.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $273k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-822 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $269k (1.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $241k (11.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $241k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#6 in IN, #676 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+.
• Northwest Allen County Schools (rural): math 51% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #25 of 301 in IN (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Arcola School (math 72% / reading 62%, grade B+, #55 of 994 statewide, top 6%, 216 students, 33% FRL); Carroll Middle School (math 39% / reading 55%, grade D+, #65 of 330 statewide, top 21%, 994 students, 29% FRL); Carroll High School (math 59% / reading 86%, grade B+, #10 of 369 statewide, top 3%, 2,554 students, 21% FRL) — zoned schools average 28% FRL vs 11% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.6%/yr); 463 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 110d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,861 units permitted in Allen County in 2024 (576 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Allen County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 398 days — a 12% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $240,592 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 398 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.09%
• DSCR: 0.60
• GRM: 13.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $387,690
• List price: $273,400
• Delta: -29.48%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12204 Bozzio Rd	0.30mi	4/2.5	2,155 (+0%)	4mo	$382,000	$177	82
5307 Tranquilo Way	0.24mi	4/2.5	2,053 (-4%)	3mo	$316,800	$154	79
4819 Windrow Way	0.40mi	4/2.5	2,244 (+4%)	4mo	$379,900	$169	71
5098 Sickle Cv	0.37mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,271 (+6%)	0mo	$396,400	$175	68
4468 Katfur Ct	0.36mi	4/2.5	2,346 (+9%)	1mo	$334,475	$143	67
5390 Fair Creek Run	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,315 (+8%)	4mo	$513,400	$222	65
13244 Watling Path	0.55mi	4/2.5	2,279 (+6%)	1mo	$485,345	$213	64
5529 Rio Azul Cv	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,996 (-7%)	0mo	$463,285	$232	62
5502 Rio Azul Cv	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,996 (-7%)	3mo	$454,900	$228	60
5265 Tranquilo Way	0.24mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,415 (+12%)	2mo	$322,025	$133	60
5463 Rio Azul Cv	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,953 (-9%)	2mo	$457,400	$234	59
5445 Rio Azul Cv	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,854 (-14%)	2mo	$440,000	$237	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.64% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-103,350
• Equity at exit: $57,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-104,005
• Equity at exit: $33,520

Cash invested: $108,553 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 78 active · 52 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.9 mo (13%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $371,900 ($175/sqft)
• Median days on market: 380 d
• This list price: 14% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +2.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 46818

• Rents YoY: 7.6%
• Active inventory: 463
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,408 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,033
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$485 /mo · $5,815/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$45
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$506
• Net cashflow: $-822

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,448

Max offer price $268,735

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-554	-5% $-688	+0% $-822	+5% $-956	+10% $-1,090
Rent	-10% $-1,012	-5% $-917	+0% $-822	+5% $-727	+10% $-632
Rate	-1.0pp $-627	-0.5pp $-723	base $-822	+0.5pp $-923	+1.0pp $-1,025

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $96,923
• Closing costs: $11,631
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5045 Portney Pl Fort Wayne, IN	4.0	2.5	2226	$2,300	$1.03	139d	1	0.12mi
4722 Whittlebury Dr Fort Wayne, IN	4.0	2.0	1650	$1,999	$1.21	109d	1	0.30mi
3619 Boulder Pass Fort Wayne, IN	3.0	2.0	1549	$1,895	$1.22	5d	1	1.00mi
3115 Carroll Rd Fort Wayne, IN	3.0	2.0–2.5	1334	$2,148	$1.61	0d	4	1.39mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $273,400 Active 398 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $273,400 Active 397 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $273,400 Active 396 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $273,400 Active 395 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $273,400 Active 394 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $273,400 Active 392 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $273,400 Active 391 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $273,400 Active 390 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $273,400 Active 389 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $273,400 Active 388 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $273,400 Active 387 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $273,400 Active 386 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $273,400 Active 385 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $273,400 Active 379 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $273,400 Active 378 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $273,400 Active 377 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $273,400 Active 374 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $273,400 Active 373 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $273,400 Active 372 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $273,400 Active 371 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $273,400 Active 370 DOM
22. 2026-08-26
    days on market $273,400 Active 369 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $273,400 Active 368 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $273,400 Active 367 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $273,400 Active 366 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $273,400 Active 365 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $273,400 Active 364 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $273,400 Active 363 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $273,400 Active 362 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $273,400 Active 361 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $273,400 Active 360 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $273,400 Active 359 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $273,400 Active 358 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $273,400 Active 357 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $273,400 Active 356 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $273,400 Active 355 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $273,400 Active 354 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $273,400 Active 353 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $273,400 Active 352 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $273,400 Active 351 DOM
41. 2026-08-07
    days on market $273,400 Active 350 DOM
42. 2026-08-06
    days on market $273,400 Active 349 DOM
43. 2026-08-05
    days on market $273,400 Active 348 DOM
44. 2026-08-04
    days on market $273,400 Active 347 DOM
45. 2026-08-03
    days on market $273,400 Active 346 DOM
46. 2026-07-31
    days on market $273,400 Active 343 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $273,400 Active 342 DOM
48. 2026-07-29
    days on market $273,400 Active 341 DOM
49. 2026-07-27
    days on market $273,400 Active 339 DOM
50. 2026-07-25
    days on market $273,400 Active 337 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,894
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,717
• − Property taxes: −$5,815
• − Insurance: −$1,938
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,311
• − Management: −$2,311
• − HOA: −$540
• − Depreciation: −$11,278
• Taxable loss: −$17,018
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,084
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,781/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a great opportunity for a potential buyer or investor looking for a move-in-ready property with high resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replacing carpet with hardwood flooring — Hardwood flooring is more durable and adds value ↑
• Both Upgrading kitchen appliances — Modern appliances improve functionality and appeal ↑
• Both Upgrading bathroom fixtures — Updated fixtures enhance functionality and aesthetics ↑

C Composite school gradezoned avg 62/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Arcola School B+ IN #55/994 Nat'l #4,366/41,679 Middle Carroll Middle School D+ IN #65/330 Nat'l #4,159/14,009 High Carroll High School B+ IN #10/369 Nat'l #1,843/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northwest Allen County Schools
• NCES district ID: 1808250
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $78,952
• Composite: 49.26/100
• National rank: #2027
• State rank: #25 of 301 in IN

A Composite livability gradescore 84/100

Livability — Fort Wayne

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #676

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Allen County · 394,020 people
• City population: 326,813
• Metro: Fort Wayne, IN
• Population (ZIP): 21,954
• Household income: $81,066
• Rent vs Own: 15.6% rent · 84.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Allen County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 394,020 people
• By 2030: 405,128 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 423,476 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 435,137 · +10.4%
• By 2075: 450,293 · +14.3%
• By 2100: 424,101 · +7.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam, Philippines
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Allen

• 2024 margin: R (+12.5) · D 42.9% · R 55.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.1pp toward R · 2008: -4.3pp · 2024: -12.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+12.5 2020: R+11.2 2016: R+19.6 2012: R+16.8 2008: R+4.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -217.71%
• Current HPI: 228.1539
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.64%
• Metro: Fort Wayne, IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

+2.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $268,600 Zillow
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $263,300 Zillow
• 2025-08-22 Listed $261,400 Zillow