928 Arbor Springs Cir · Grovetown, GA 30813

$250,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,422 sqft · Other public records · 9 Days on market

Built 2010 9,583 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Home is under contract

Key facts

• Brand new roof
• Covered rear patio
• Functional layout

Tags

• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• COVERED REAR PATIO
• BACKYARD SPACE
• BRAND NEW ROOF
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• BAR SEATING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property located in Arbor Springs subdivision; Road frontage on city street and state road; Zoned R

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; 4 total parking spaces (4-car garage)
• Utilities: Public water; Underground utilities; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story, entry level on first floor; Brick and vinyl siding exterior; Shingle roof
• Construction: Built on a slab foundation
• Exterior features: Front porch; Rear porch; Back yard fencing; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen (appliances not listed)
• Bedrooms: 7 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Heat pump and electric heating; Fireplace(s)
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-50 ($-595/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $241k (3.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (18.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (18.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.6% in Grovetown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#57 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Columbia County (suburban): math 49% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #13 of 174 in GA (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Cedar Ridge Elementary School (math 45% / reading 44%, grade F, #336 of 1,228 statewide, top 29%, 1,150 students, 42% FRL); Grovetown Middle School (math 25% / reading 38%, grade F, #234 of 470 statewide, top 50%, 1,080 students, 49% FRL); Grovetown High School (math 15% / reading 25%, grade F, #232 of 424 statewide, top 56%, 2,236 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 26% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 32% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Columbia County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 724 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,213 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Columbia County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $203,580 (18.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.85%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.15% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-47,404
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-60,110
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30813

• Home prices YoY: -29.2%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 724
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,036 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$243 /mo · $2,913/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $-50

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,099

Max offer price $241,234

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $92	-5% $21	+0% $-50	+5% $-120	+10% $-191
Rent	-10% $-210	-5% $-130	+0% $-50	+5% $31	+10% $111
Rate	-1.0pp $76	-0.5pp $14	base $-50	+0.5pp $-114	+1.0pp $-180

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
937 Arbor Springs Cir Grovetown, GA	4.0	2.0	1438	$1,950	$1.36	24d	1	0.14mi
937 Arbor Springs Cir Grovetown, GA	4.0	2.0	1438	$2,000	$1.39	44d	1	0.14mi
301 Hazelnut Dr Grovetown, GA	3.0	2.0	1572	$1,500	$0.95	24d	1	0.33mi
301 Hazelnut Dr Grovetown, GA	3.0	2.0	1572	$1,500	$0.95	44d	1	0.33mi
2057 Lake Forest Dr Grovetown, GA	4.0	2.0	1737	$1,825	$1.05	14d	1	0.68mi
302 Dorn St Grovetown, GA	4.0	3.0	1698	$1,960	$1.15	44d	1	0.74mi
445 Northrop Pl Grovetown, GA	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,535	$1.18	24d	1	0.74mi
345 Washington St Grovetown, GA	3.0	2.0	1455	$1,961	$1.35	21d	1	0.90mi
134 Barbara St Grovetown, GA	4.0	2.5	1701	$1,820	$1.07	44d	1	0.93mi
444 Madison St Grovetown, GA	3.0	2.0	1546	$1,750	$1.13	44d	1	0.94mi
444 Madison St Grovetown, GA	3.0	2.0	1546	$1,700	$1.10	21d	1	0.94mi
4023 Rosedale Pl Grovetown, GA	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,935	$1.38	14d	1	1.02mi
4041 Rosedale Pl #1 Grovetown, GA	3.0	2.0	1516	$1,800	$1.19	44d	1	1.10mi
4041 Rosedale Pl #1 Grovetown, GA	3.0	2.0	1516	$1,800	$1.19	24d	1	1.10mi
1000 Station Dr Grovetown, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1226	$2,435	$1.99	14d	26	1.10mi
945 Cannock St Grovetown, GA	4.0	2.0	1786	$2,000	$1.12	24d	1	1.11mi
1010 Salford Pl Grovetown, GA	3.0	2.0	1527	$1,800	$1.18	21d	1	1.15mi
135 Brighton Landing Dr Grovetown, GA	3.0	2.0	1588	$1,925	$1.21	24d	1	1.36mi
5107 Heathbrook Dr Grovetown, GA	3.0	2.0	1570	$1,900	$1.21	21d	1	1.36mi
5112 Heathbrook Dr Grovetown, GA	3.0	2.5	1844	$2,000	$1.08	24d	1	1.40mi
701 Benelli Ct Unit 00 740 Grovetown, GA	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,750	$1.17	44d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-05-18
   listed $250,000 Active
2. 2024-01-19
   soldstatus $231,000
3. 2024-01-16
   soldstatus $231,000 22-char remark

   Show marketing remark (22 chars)

   Home is under contract

4. 2024-01-16
   soldstatus $231,000 22-char remark

   Show marketing remark (22 chars)

   Home is under contract

5. 2023-12-15
   listed $231,000 22-char remark

   Show marketing remark (22 chars)

   Home is under contract

6. 2023-12-15
   listed $231,000 22-char remark

   Show marketing remark (22 chars)

   Home is under contract

7. 2017-09-08
   soldstatus $145,500
8. 2017-09-01
   soldstatus $145,500
9. 2017-09-01
   soldstatus $145,500
10. 2017-08-16
    listed $149,900
11. 2017-08-16
    listed $149,900
12. 2010-07-29
    soldstatus $149,900
13. 2010-07-29
    soldstatus $149,900
14. 2010-01-25
    listed $144,900
15. 2010-01-25
    listed $144,900
16. 2009-11-24
    soldstatus $29,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,913 · $243/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,913 · $243/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 65% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,430
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$2,913
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,954
• − Management: −$1,954
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$4,918
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,180
• After-tax cash flow: $585/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia County
• NCES district ID: 1301410
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $69,358
• Composite: 45.04/100
• National rank: #2695
• State rank: #13 of 174 in GA

Livability — Grovetown

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #5433

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Grovetown, GA
• County: Columbia County · 154,184 people
• City population: 52,466
• Metro: Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC
• Population (ZIP): 52,466
• Household income: $86,923
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 960.0

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 189,073 people
• By 2030: 212,277 · +12.3%
• By 2040: 259,480 · +37.2%
• By 2050: 306,991 · +62.4%
• By 2075: 421,213 · +122.8%
• By 2100: 496,722 · +162.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Black 29% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% German/W. Germanic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.6) · D 36.8% · R 62.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +17.0pp toward D · 2008: -42.7pp · 2024: -25.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.6 2020: R+25.8 2016: R+37.7 2012: R+43.0 2008: R+42.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -96.24%
• Current HPI: 233.821
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.15%
• Metro: Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+736.1% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $250,000 Hive MLS
• 2024-01-19 Sold (Public Records) $231,000 Public Records
• 2024-01-16 Sold (MLS) $231,000 Hive MLS
• 2024-01-16 Sold (MLS) $231,000 Hive MLS
• 2023-12-15 Listed $231,000 Hive MLS
• 2023-12-15 Listed $231,000 Hive MLS
• 2017-09-08 Sold (Public Records) $145,500 Public Records
• 2017-09-01 Sold (MLS) $145,500 Hive MLS
• 2017-09-01 Sold (MLS) $145,500 Hive MLS
• 2017-08-16 Listed $149,900 Hive MLS
• 2017-08-16 Listed $149,900 Hive MLS
• 2010-07-29 Sold (MLS) $149,900 Hive MLS
• 2010-07-29 Sold (MLS) $149,900 Hive MLS
• 2010-01-25 Listed $144,900 Hive MLS
• 2010-01-25 Listed $144,900 Hive MLS
• 2009-11-24 Sold (Public Records) $29,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,913 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.