411 Oak Tree Dr · Point Blank, TX 77364

$65,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · Manufactured public records · 164 Days on market

Built 2007 0.34 ac lot $61/sqft · 72% below area Est $109k · 40% under ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.8/10.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Perfect Tiny home in a very private setting. This cute little home is in great condition, new built front and back porch. Washer and dryer positioned on back porch. Woods to the left, back and front of the home. Public boat ramp 5 minutes away. Come see this adorable place. Just perfect.

Key facts

• 0.34 acre lot
• Built 2007
• Listed 163 days

Tags

• NEW BUILT FRONT AND BACK PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $352 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($962 rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $57k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.8% vs local median 2.7% in Point Blank — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,477 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime D, schools F.
• Coldspring-Oakhurst CISD (rural): math 18% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #732 of 826 in TX (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 197 active listings in the ZIP; 575 units permitted in San Jacinto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $250 of equity ($449 loan paydown + $-199 appreciation (-0.3% local appreciation)).
• San Jacinto County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-0.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 97% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $57,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.21%
• DSCR: 2.03
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $108,553
• List price: $65,000
• Delta: -40.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.31% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.08×
• Total profit: $19,580
• Equity at exit: $17,885

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.93×
• Total profit: $53,368
• Equity at exit: $20,725

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77364

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 197
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $962 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $476/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$202
• Net cashflow: $352

Break-even live

Break-even rent $516

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $65,000 Active 164 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $65,000 Active 163 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $65,000 Active 162 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $65,000 Active 161 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 160 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $65,000 Active 158 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $65,000 Active 157 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $65,000 Active 155 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $65,000 Active 154 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $65,000 Active 153 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $65,000 Active 152 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $65,000 Active 148 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $65,000 Active 147 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $65,000 Active 146 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $65,000 Active 145 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $65,000 Active 144 DOM
17. 2026-01-06
    listed $65,000 Active 288-char remark

    Show marketing remark (288 chars)

    Perfect Tiny home in a very private setting. This cute little home is in great condition, new built front and back porch. Washer and dryer positioned on back porch. Woods to the left, back and front of the home. Public boat ramp 5 minutes away. Come see this adorable place. Just perfect.

18. 2025-12-31
    historical
19. 2025-09-24
    price $70,000
20. 2025-09-09
    listed $75,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $476 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,190 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: +$713/yr (+$59/mo · 149.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 97% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,540
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$476
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$923
• − Management: −$923
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $3,360
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$806
• After-tax cash flow: $3,418/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Coldspring-Oakhurst CISD
• NCES district ID: 4814520
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,916
• Composite: 20.07/100
• National rank: #8653
• State rank: #732 of 826 in TX

Livability — Point Blank

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1477
• US rank: #25299

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Point Blank, TX
• Population (ZIP): 1,835

Population outlook (San Jacinto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,069 people
• By 2030: 29,750 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 30,714 · +5.7%
• By 2050: 31,010 · +6.7%
• By 2075: 31,616 · +8.8%
• By 2100: 29,874 · +2.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 13% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Italian 4% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Jacinto

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.3) · D 17.0% · R 82.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.0pp toward R · 2008: -38.3pp · 2024: -65.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.3 2020: R+61.9 2016: R+58.4 2012: R+48.9 2008: R+38.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.31%
• Current HPI: 193.4748
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-06 Listed $65,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-24 Price Changed $70,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-09 Listed $75,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+13.1%/yr

Latest (2019): $476 · +26.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.