191 Palmetto Ridge Rd · Nocatee, FL 32095

$264,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,308 sqft · Land · 62 Days on market

Built 2026 5,000 sqft lot $116/mo HOA · 6% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come see how the Springfield townhome plan lives so much larger than its square footage! This beautiful plan features approximately 1,308 square feet, with 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms. The open concept layout includes a spacious kitchen and cozy living room. The abundance of natural light coming through the sliding doors makes this home come alive with natural light. The main suite has a spacious bathroom with vanity and walk in closet. The Springfield offers future homeowners an excellent new construction home with energy-efficient features in neighborhoods across North Florida!

Key facts

• $116 HOA
• Built 2026
• Listed 62 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Universal property ID US-12109-N-0743211070-R-N; Permit number 0743211070
• Financial info: Total annual fees $1,400; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA managed by Priority Community Management; Association fees required (Quarterly fee: $350; Monthly equivalent shown as $116.67); Pets allowed

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Residential townhouse; Under construction (projected completion May 6, 2026); Two stories; North-facing
• Construction: Cement siding and frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; New construction; Builder: DR Horton (model: Springfield); Builder license CBC058997; Built on approximately 0.04 acres
• Exterior features: Asphalt road access; Irrigation equipment

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full baths; 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-127 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $242k (8.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (26.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (26.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 2.5% in Nocatee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#425 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 456 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($136k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($249k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $195,282 (26.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.06%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-53,513
• Equity at exit: $39,511

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-66,888
• Equity at exit: $22,911

Cash invested: $74,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32095

• Home prices YoY: -18.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 456
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,953 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $649/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$116
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $-127

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,114

Max offer price $242,480

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,248
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
171 Palmetto Ridge Rd Saint Augustine, FL	2.0	2.5	1108	$1,700	$1.53	23d	1	0.02mi
163 Palmetto Ridge Rd Saint Augustine, FL	2.0	2.5	1109	$1,700	$1.53	23d	1	0.03mi
161 Palmetto Ridge Rd St Augustine, FL	2.0	2.5	1109	$1,700	$1.53	23d	1	0.03mi
46 Wading Ibis Rd Saint Augustine, FL	3.0	2.5	1308	$1,900	$1.45	23d	1	0.07mi
35 Hidden Meadows Rd Saint Augustine, FL	3.0	2.5	1308	$1,850	$1.41	13d	1	0.08mi
164 Sage Branch St Saint Augustine, FL	3.0	2.5	1308	$1,650	$1.26	3d	1	0.09mi
164 Sage Branch St Saint Augustine, FL	3.0	2.5	1308	$1,650	$1.26	17d	1	0.09mi
51 Palmetto Ridge Rd Saint Augustine, FL	2.0	2.5	1109	$1,750	$1.58	23d	1	0.11mi
235 Sage Branch St Saint Augustine, FL	3.0	2.5	1308	$1,650	$1.26	23d	1	0.14mi
400 La Travesia Flora #203 Saint Augustine, FL	2.0	2.0	1237	$1,900	$1.54	23d	1	1.24mi
180 Calle El Jardin #201 Saint Augustine, FL	3.0	2.0	1383	$1,975	$1.43	3d	1	1.26mi
110 Calle El Jardin #203 Saint Augustine, FL	2.0	2.0	1278	$2,400	$1.88	14d	1	1.42mi
405 Island View Cir St Augustine, FL	3.0	2.0	1443	$2,495	$1.73	23d	1	1.45mi
132 Marsh Island Cir Saint Augustine, FL	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,695	$2.00	23d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $116 · $1,392/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (584 chars)

   Come see how the Springfield townhome plan lives so much larger than its square footage! This beautiful plan features approximately 1,308 square feet, with 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms. The open concept layout includes a spacious kitchen and cozy living room. The abundance of natural light coming through the sliding doors makes this home come alive with natural light. The main suite has a spacious bathroom with vanity and walk in closet. The Springfield offers future homeowners an excellent new construction home with energy-efficient features in neighborhoods across North Florida!

2. 2026-04-20
   status Pending 584-char remark

   Show marketing remark (584 chars)

   Come see how the Springfield townhome plan lives so much larger than its square footage! This beautiful plan features approximately 1,308 square feet, with 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms. The open concept layout includes a spacious kitchen and cozy living room. The abundance of natural light coming through the sliding doors makes this home come alive with natural light. The main suite has a spacious bathroom with vanity and walk in closet. The Springfield offers future homeowners an excellent new construction home with energy-efficient features in neighborhoods across North Florida!

3. 2026-04-09
   price $264,990

   Show marketing remark (584 chars)

   Come see how the Springfield townhome plan lives so much larger than its square footage! This beautiful plan features approximately 1,308 square feet, with 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms. The open concept layout includes a spacious kitchen and cozy living room. The abundance of natural light coming through the sliding doors makes this home come alive with natural light. The main suite has a spacious bathroom with vanity and walk in closet. The Springfield offers future homeowners an excellent new construction home with energy-efficient features in neighborhoods across North Florida!

4. 2026-04-09
   price $264,990 584-char remark

   Show marketing remark (584 chars)

   Come see how the Springfield townhome plan lives so much larger than its square footage! This beautiful plan features approximately 1,308 square feet, with 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms. The open concept layout includes a spacious kitchen and cozy living room. The abundance of natural light coming through the sliding doors makes this home come alive with natural light. The main suite has a spacious bathroom with vanity and walk in closet. The Springfield offers future homeowners an excellent new construction home with energy-efficient features in neighborhoods across North Florida!

5. 2026-02-17
   listed $269,990 Active

   Show marketing remark (584 chars)

   Come see how the Springfield townhome plan lives so much larger than its square footage! This beautiful plan features approximately 1,308 square feet, with 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms. The open concept layout includes a spacious kitchen and cozy living room. The abundance of natural light coming through the sliding doors makes this home come alive with natural light. The main suite has a spacious bathroom with vanity and walk in closet. The Springfield offers future homeowners an excellent new construction home with energy-efficient features in neighborhoods across North Florida!

6. 2026-02-17
   listed $269,990 Active 584-char remark

   Show marketing remark (584 chars)

   Come see how the Springfield townhome plan lives so much larger than its square footage! This beautiful plan features approximately 1,308 square feet, with 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms. The open concept layout includes a spacious kitchen and cozy living room. The abundance of natural light coming through the sliding doors makes this home come alive with natural light. The main suite has a spacious bathroom with vanity and walk in closet. The Springfield offers future homeowners an excellent new construction home with energy-efficient features in neighborhoods across North Florida!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $649 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,199 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,550/yr (+$129/mo · 238.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,434
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$649
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,875
• − Management: −$1,875
• − HOA: −$1,392
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$6,234
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,496
• After-tax cash flow: $-33/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Johns
• NCES district ID: 1201740
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,842
• Composite: 64.31/100
• National rank: #556
• State rank: #2 of 73 in FL

Livability — Nocatee

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #425
• US rank: #7550

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Johns County · 301,599 people
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,399
• Household income: $136,038
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 101.0

Population outlook (St. Johns County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 303,941 people
• By 2030: 342,590 · +12.7%
• By 2040: 417,328 · +37.3%
• By 2050: 487,011 · +60.2%
• By 2075: 635,395 · +109.1%
• By 2100: 717,469 · +136.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 6% Two or more races 5% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Cuban 3% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Johns

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.9% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: -31.6pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+33.4 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+31.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.44%
• Current HPI: 246.0743
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.77%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-1.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-20 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $264,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $264,990 realMLS
• 2026-02-17 Listed $269,990 realMLS
• 2026-02-17 Listed $269,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+28.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $649 · +28.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.