2421 Shamrock Rd · Skaneateles, NY 13152

$269,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,817 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1910 2.22 ac lot $149/sqft · 57% below area ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.9/10.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 2421 Shamrock Road! This is the first time in almost 50 years this property has been available! What started as a one room schoolhouse was renovated into a single-family home many years ago. This corner lot cape cod features just over two acres of stunning land, including a ravine and beautiful wooded surroundings offering privacy and true rural living. The home provides three bedrooms on the main floor with two bonus rooms on the second floor. There is a formal dining room which leads into a gorgeous, oversized living room with fireplace; great for entertaining! Eat in kitchen with pellet stove and full bath on the main floor. Both refrigerators are in working order and convey w

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Two acres of land
• Eat in kitchen

Tags

• CORNER LOT CAPE COD
• TWO ACRES OF LAND
• RAVINE AND WOODED SURROUNDINGS
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• OVERSIZED LIVING ROOM
• EAT IN KITCHEN

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Cable available; Electricity connected; High-speed internet available; Septic tank; Well water
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Wood siding; Block foundation; Existing construction
• Exterior features: Gravel driveway; Owned propane tank; Leased propane tank; Corner, rectangular rural lot (504 x 200)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating with forced air
• Interior features: Separate/formal dining room; Eat-in kitchen; Convertible bedroom; Main-level primary suite
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Washer; Dryer; Propane water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $185 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (7.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $250k (7.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 2.0% in Skaneateles — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#148 in NY, #2,279 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Skaneateles Central School District (town): math 78% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #65 of 590 in NY (top 11%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 69 active listings in the ZIP; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $250,229 (7.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.93%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $622,552
• List price: $269,900
• Delta: -54.24%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2515 Shamrock Rd	0.28mi	3/1.0	1,870 (+3%)	0mo	$443,000	$237	82

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-31,975
• Equity at exit: $40,243

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-12,721
• Equity at exit: $23,336

Cash invested: $75,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13152

• Home prices YoY: -16.5%
• Active inventory: 69
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,502 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax from tax record: −$264 /mo · $3,171/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $185

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,268

Max offer price $269,900

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,475
• Closing costs: $8,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $269,900 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,900 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,900 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   price $269,900 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $284,900 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $284,900 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $284,900 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $284,900 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $284,900 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $284,900 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $284,900 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $284,900 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $284,900 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $284,900 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $284,900 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-11
    listed $284,900 Active 944-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,171 · $264/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,866 · $322/mo
• Expected delta: +$695/yr (+$58/mo · 21.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,027
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,119
• − Property taxes: −$3,171
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,402
• − Management: −$2,402
• − Depreciation: −$7,852
• Taxable loss: −$2,267
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$544
• After-tax cash flow: $2,761/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Skaneateles Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3626940
• Math proficiency: 78% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $81,561
• Composite: 68.61/100
• National rank: #340
• State rank: #65 of 590 in NY

Livability — Skaneateles

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #148
• US rank: #2279

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,548

Population outlook (Onondaga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 467,894 people
• By 2030: 463,381 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 447,697 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 426,399 · -8.9%
• By 2075: 373,661 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 307,967 · -34.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% German/W. Germanic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Onondaga

• 2024 margin: D (+17.3) · D 58.6% · R 41.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: 20.3pp · 2024: 17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.3 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+12.8 2012: D+21.1 2008: D+20.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.82%
• Current HPI: 424.2545
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-5.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $269,900 CNYIS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $284,900 CNYIS

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,171 · -4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.