16618 Fairman Dr · Cut and Shoot, TX 77303

$146,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 106 Days on market

Built 2020 Fair condition 10,550 sqft lot $159/sqft · 13% above area Est $130k · 13% over $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.0/30.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• ARV discount +1.6/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

beautiful home with 3 bedrooms, two bathrooms, built on 2020, sitting on a big lot, no back neighbors, home is in great condition.

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• Built 2020
• Listed 105 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $147k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $289 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $147k).
• Recommended offer: $134k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 4.8% in Cut and Shoot — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,326 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 714 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($134k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $133,679 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.42%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $129,900
• List price: $146,900
• Delta: 13.09%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-10,107
• Equity at exit: $21,903

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-3,259
• Equity at exit: $12,701

Cash invested: $41,132 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77303

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 714
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,602 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$770
• Tax from tax record: −$128 /mo · $1,536/yr
• Insurance: −$61
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $289

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,236

Max offer price $146,900

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,725
• Closing costs: $4,407
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $146,900 Active 106 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $146,900 Active 105 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $146,900 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $146,900 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $146,900 Active 101 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $146,900 Active 97 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $146,900 Active 96 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $146,900 Active 95 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $146,900 Active 92 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $146,900 Active 91 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $146,900 Active 90 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $146,900 Active 89 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $146,900 Active 88 DOM
14. 2026-05-03
    price $146,900 130-char remark

    Show marketing remark (130 chars)

    beautiful home with 3 bedrooms, two bathrooms, built on 2020, sitting on a big lot, no back neighbors, home is in great condition.

15. 2026-03-04
    listed $149,900 Active 130-char remark

    Show marketing remark (130 chars)

    beautiful home with 3 bedrooms, two bathrooms, built on 2020, sitting on a big lot, no back neighbors, home is in great condition.

16. 2026-01-22
    soldstatus Closed 577-char remark

    Show marketing remark (577 chars)

    Built in 2020, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers modern design and endless potential. The open layout creates a bright and welcoming feel, making the most of every space. Sitting on a large lot with no back neighbors, the property provides privacy and room to grow — perfect for outdoor living, gardening, or future expansion. This home is an excellent option for first-time buyers, investors, or those seeking a low-maintenance lifestyle. Conveniently located near Conroe, Lake Conroe, and with easy access to I-45, you’ll enjoy both privacy and accessibility.

17. 2026-01-15
    status Pending 577-char remark

    Show marketing remark (577 chars)

    Built in 2020, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers modern design and endless potential. The open layout creates a bright and welcoming feel, making the most of every space. Sitting on a large lot with no back neighbors, the property provides privacy and room to grow — perfect for outdoor living, gardening, or future expansion. This home is an excellent option for first-time buyers, investors, or those seeking a low-maintenance lifestyle. Conveniently located near Conroe, Lake Conroe, and with easy access to I-45, you’ll enjoy both privacy and accessibility.

18. 2026-01-07
    status Pending 577-char remark

    Show marketing remark (577 chars)

    Built in 2020, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers modern design and endless potential. The open layout creates a bright and welcoming feel, making the most of every space. Sitting on a large lot with no back neighbors, the property provides privacy and room to grow — perfect for outdoor living, gardening, or future expansion. This home is an excellent option for first-time buyers, investors, or those seeking a low-maintenance lifestyle. Conveniently located near Conroe, Lake Conroe, and with easy access to I-45, you’ll enjoy both privacy and accessibility.

19. 2025-08-30
    listed $145,000 Active 577-char remark

    Show marketing remark (577 chars)

    Built in 2020, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers modern design and endless potential. The open layout creates a bright and welcoming feel, making the most of every space. Sitting on a large lot with no back neighbors, the property provides privacy and room to grow — perfect for outdoor living, gardening, or future expansion. This home is an excellent option for first-time buyers, investors, or those seeking a low-maintenance lifestyle. Conveniently located near Conroe, Lake Conroe, and with easy access to I-45, you’ll enjoy both privacy and accessibility.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,536 · $128/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,688 · $224/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,152/yr (+$96/mo · 75.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,220
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,229
• − Property taxes: −$1,536
• − Insurance: −$734
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,538
• − Management: −$1,538
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$4,273
• Taxable income: $1,168
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$280
• After-tax cash flow: $3,185/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

This mobile home is in fair condition with cosmetic updates needed to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor porch railings — slight wear
• Minor porch steps — slight wear

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Resale trim exterior siding — improves home's appearance and value
• Resale prune bushes — enhances curb appeal and property maintenance

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
porch railings · slight wear	Minor	$500–3,000
porch steps · slight wear	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Resale trim exterior siding — improves home's appearance and value ↑
• Resale prune bushes — enhances curb appeal and property maintenance ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cut and Shoot

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1326
• US rank: #22835

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,854
• Household income: $75,348
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 464.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 31%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.71%
• Current HPI: 269.5367
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.31%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Price Changed $146,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-04 Listed $149,900 HARMLS
• 2026-01-22 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2026-01-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-01-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-08-30 Listed $145,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,536 · -16.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.