74711 Dillon Rd #308 · Sky Valley, CA 92241

$115,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 167 Days on market

Built 1976 Fair condition 2,500 sqft lot $80/sqft · 10% below area Est $128k · 10% under ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.1/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This 2 bedroom 2 bath turn key furnished manufactured home is located on a corner lot in beautiful, family friendly Sky Valley Resort just steps from the pool. Enjoy 2 outdoor living spaces and mountain views, fruit trees, extra large primary bedroom and primary bathroom, 2 living rooms, tile flooring and a beautiful fireplace in the main living room, and a spacious dining area, Enjoy the rare and natural mineral water in the pools and spas, Cafe, Chapel, tennis, Pickle Ball, Farmers Market, the Wild West wash, grassy knolls and duck filled ponds, open Desert hiking and more. Also enjoy the warm Winters, blue skies, the new Acrisure Arena, golf tournaments, tennis tournaments, art festivals

Key facts

• Primary bathroom
• Tile flooring
• Fruit trees

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• OUTDOOR LIVING SPACES
• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• FRUIT TREES
• PRIMARY BATHROOM
• TILE FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $735 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.0% vs local median 9.6% in Sky Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,041 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Palm Springs Unified (suburban): math 21% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #328 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 216 active listings in the ZIP; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 167 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 167 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.68% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.41%
• DSCR: 2.22
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $128,077
• List price: $115,000
• Delta: -10.21%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
74711 Dillon Rd #635	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,490 (+4%)	2mo	$130,000	$87	92
74711 Dillon Rd #389	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,512 (+5%)	9mo	$158,000	$104	84
74711 Dillon Rd #545	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	9mo	$105,000	$78	82
74711 Dillon Rd #507	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	3mo	$147,500	$118	69
74711 Dillon Rd #385	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	16mo	$85,000	$63	69
74711 Dillon Rd #552	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (+9%)	9mo	$116,000	$74	67
74711 Dillon Rd #614	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	6mo	$70,000	$56	67
74711 Dillon Rd #544	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,603 (+11%)	12mo	$130,000	$81	66
74711 Dillon #373	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	14mo	$120,000	$96	60
74711 Dillon Rd #611	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,628 (+13%)	17mo	$105,000	$64	58
74711 Dillon Rd #513	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (-13%)	18mo	$81,920	$66	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $28,236
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.64×
• Total profit: $85,023
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92241

• Home prices YoY: -22.8%
• Active inventory: 216
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,937 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$144 /mo · $1,725/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $735

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,006

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 167 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 166 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 165 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 164 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 162 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 161 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 158 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $115,000 Active 157 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $115,000 Active 156 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $115,000 Active 153 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 152 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 151 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 150 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 149 DOM
15. 2026-01-01
    historical
16. 2025-06-01
    historical
17. 2025-01-03
    listed $115,000 Active
18. 2025-01-03
    listed $123,000 Active
19. 2025-01-03
    listed $115,000 Active
20. 2025-01-01
    historical
21. 2024-08-18
    listed $129,000 Active
22. 2024-08-05
    historical
23. 2024-02-04
    listed $150,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,244
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,725
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,859
• − Management: −$1,859
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $7,437
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,785
• After-tax cash flow: $7,041/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home requires moderate renovations to update the kitchen and bathroom, and paint the exterior. It has average condition and could benefit from a fresh paint job to improve curb appeal.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate kitchen cabinets — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate bathroom fixtures — outdated and in need of replacement
• Minor interior walls — paint peeling

Value-add opportunities

• Resale update kitchen cabinets and fixtures — modernizing the kitchen would appeal to buyers
• Resale update bathroom fixtures — modernizing the bathroom would appeal to buyers
• Both paint exterior — improving curb appeal would attract both buyers and renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
bathroom fixtures · outdated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
interior walls · paint peeling	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$6,500–33,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale update kitchen cabinets and fixtures — modernizing the kitchen would appeal to buyers ↑
• Resale update bathroom fixtures — modernizing the bathroom would appeal to buyers ↑
• Both paint exterior — improving curb appeal would attract both buyers and renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palm Springs Unified
• NCES district ID: 0629550
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $43,638
• Composite: 26.76/100
• National rank: #7131
• State rank: #328 of 517 in CA

Livability — Sky Valley

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1041
• US rank: #25108

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B- Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sky Valley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 8,624

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 46% Two or more races 16% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 38% Chinese 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.23%
• Current HPI: 400.5663
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-23.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-01 Listing Removed — GPSMLS
• 2025-06-01 Listing Removed — GPSMLS
• 2025-01-03 Listed $115,000 GPSMLS
• 2025-01-03 Listed $123,000 GPSMLS
• 2025-01-03 Listed $115,000 GPSMLS
• 2025-01-01 Listing Removed — GPSMLS
• 2024-08-18 Listed $129,000 GPSMLS
• 2024-08-05 Listing Removed — GPSMLS
• 2024-02-04 Listed $150,000 GPSMLS