3114 Blakely Ct · Heartland, TX 75114

$170,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 139 Days on market

Built 2022 5,184 sqft lot Est $248k · 31% under $50/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 5,184 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 2022

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property listed as Real Estate Owned (REO)
• Financial info: Acceptable financing: Cash, Conventional, FHA, USDA Loan; No second mortgage listed
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA with annual fee; HOA management: Wildcat Ranch; HOA covers management fees; Annual association fee of 600

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage facing front
• Security: Security features listed as unknown/other
• Utilities: Asphalt access; Cable available; Located in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; One story; Preowned home built in 2022; Not attached to another property; Subdivision: Wildcat Ranch Ph 3
• Construction: Brick, wood and other construction materials; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Interior lot; Grassed vegetation; Easements present

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Disposal; Pantry
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms, all on the main level; Primary bedroom on the main level with walk-in closet; Additional bedrooms on the main level with walk-in closets
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms, both on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Natural gas heating; Other type of cooling
• Interior features: Cable TV available; Pantry; Walk-in closets; One living area; One dining area; Room count of 8; One level
• Laundry & utility: Full-size washer/dryer area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-67 ($-806/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $158k (7.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.6% in Heartland — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Crandall ISD (rural): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #351 of 826 in TX (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Nola Kathryn Wilson El (math 40% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,313 of 4,322 statewide, top 31%, 596 students, 59% FRL); Crandall Middle (math 38% / reading 42%, grade F, #646 of 1,662 statewide, top 40%, 983 students, 60% FRL); Crandall H S (math 33% / reading 53%, grade F, #713 of 1,632 statewide, top 44%, 1,707 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 41% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 802 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $32k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.5% of price.

Recommended offer $149,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.69%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $247,500
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2376 Great Belt Blvd	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,450 (-3%)	1mo	$220,000	$152	73
3713 Pronghorn Ln	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,390 (-7%)	1mo	$219,000	$158	71
3664 Mildren Bnd	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,451 (-3%)	1mo	$239,999	$165	66
2071 Wildcat Trl	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,480 (-1%)	1mo	$244,900	$165	66
3331 Watterson Way	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,416 (-6%)	1mo	$230,000	$162	62
2529 Talus Run	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,396 (-7%)	1mo	$267,240	$191	60
2933 Hearts Trl	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,411 (-6%)	0mo	$204,999	$145	59
2909 Hearts Trl	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,411 (-6%)	0mo	$237,859	$169	57
2810 Bakers Bnd	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,335 (-11%)	0mo	$275,740	$207	57
6022 Midsummer Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,335 (-11%)	1mo	$259,740	$195	53
3634 Mildren Bnd	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,660 (+11%)	1mo	$255,000	$154	52
6311 Streamside Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,336 (-11%)	1mo	$263,740	$197	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-31,504
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-31,642
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75114

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Active inventory: 802
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,997 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$632 /mo · $7,589/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $-67

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,082

Max offer price $158,142

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $29	-5% $-19	+0% $-67	+5% $-115	+10% $-163
Rent	-10% $-225	-5% $-146	+0% $-67	+5% $12	+10% $91
Rate	-1.0pp $18	-0.5pp $-24	base $-67	+0.5pp $-111	+1.0pp $-156

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2991 Wallace Wells Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,895	$1.50	45d	1	0.21mi
2973 Wallace Wells Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,665	$1.16	45d	1	0.22mi
2127 Ocelot St Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1383	$2,200	$1.59	45d	1	0.23mi
2117 Ocelot St Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$1,875	$1.27	45d	1	0.23mi
2960 Wallace Wells Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$2,000	$1.39	45d	1	0.24mi
3007 Wallace Wells Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,950	$1.35	45d	1	0.24mi
2961 Wallace Wells Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,855	$1.47	3d	1	0.25mi
3121 Helix Bay Dr Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,675	$1.16	45d	1	0.28mi
3104 Helix Bay Dr Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,675	$1.32	26d	1	0.31mi
3324 Price Trl Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,995	$1.54	18d	1	0.32mi
3103 Helix Bay Dr Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,729	$1.20	4d	1	0.32mi
3315 Beckwith Way Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,685	$1.17	45d	1	0.32mi
3101 Helix Bay Dr Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,745	$1.38	26d	1	0.33mi
3352 Beckwith Way Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,750	$1.38	0d	1	0.34mi
2043 Serval Ln Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1544	$2,100	$1.36	45d	1	0.38mi
4152 Silverstein St Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,925	$1.52	26d	1	0.39mi
2505 Milne Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,500	$1.72	20d	1	0.40mi
4171 Silverstein St Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,900	$1.45	14d	1	0.46mi
2603 Khaju Grv Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,699	$1.34	4d	1	0.51mi
2294 Great Belt Blvd Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,815	$1.43	26d	1	0.52mi
2306 Great Belt Blvd Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,695	$1.34	45d	1	0.52mi
2504 Cornado Way Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,799	$1.25	45d	1	0.52mi
2302 Great Belt Blvd Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,650	$1.30	4d	1	0.52mi
2511 Cornado Way Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,799	$1.45	26d	1	0.54mi
2311 Alcantara Ave Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1220	$1,740	$1.43	0d	1	0.56mi
2908 Hearts Trl Crandall, TX	3.0	3.0	1266	$1,750	$1.38	45d	1	0.74mi
4624 Verdin St Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1390	$1,950	$1.40	0d	1	0.80mi
1930 Wild Orchard Ln Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,865	$1.32	45d	1	0.81mi
1507 Trick Riding Way Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1850	$1,900	$1.03	0d	1	0.85mi
1507 Trick Riding Way Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1850	$1,900	$1.03	26d	1	0.85mi
1209 Kings Pl Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1356	$1,975	$1.46	3d	1	0.87mi
1609 Duke Dr Crandall, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1614	$2,242	$1.39	0d	1	0.91mi
1799 Courage Crk Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,800	$1.43	45d	1	0.96mi
1793 Courage Crk Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,769	$1.06	0d	1	0.97mi
1789 Courage Crk Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,739	$1.04	4d	1	0.97mi
2624 Bartlett St Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	26d	1	1.02mi
2510 Flight Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,845	$1.11	26d	1	1.05mi
2513 Flight Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	26d	1	1.05mi
2739 Bronte Blvd Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	26d	1	1.08mi
2521 Flight Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	26d	1	1.09mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-02
   price $170,000
3. 2026-03-30
   status Active
4. 2026-02-13
   historical Active Option Contract
5. 2026-01-24
   price $180,000
6. 2025-12-25
   price $190,000
7. 2025-11-15
   listed $202,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,589 · $632/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,589 · $632/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,964
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$7,589
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,917
• − Management: −$1,917
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable loss: −$3,377
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$811
• After-tax cash flow: $5/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crandall ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815510
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $70,076
• Composite: 35.57/100
• National rank: #4901
• State rank: #351 of 826 in TX

Livability — Heartland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• City population: 9,333
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,333
• Household income: $88,013
• Rent vs Own: 12.7% rent · 87.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 33.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 27% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.61%
• Current HPI: 196.4773
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-16.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $170,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-30 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-02-13 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-01-24 Price Changed $180,000 NTREIS
• 2025-12-25 Price Changed $190,000 NTREIS
• 2025-11-15 Listed $202,500 NTREIS

Property tax history

+82.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,589 · -3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.