1824 Hay St · Shelton, WA 98584

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1973 6,098 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.8/30.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious home on a desirable corner lot! This well-laid-out doublewide offers 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, and 1,440 sq ft of comfortable living space, featuring a cozy pellet stove plus an efficient mini-split heat pump for year-round heating and cooling. The primary suite includes an ensuite bath and a generously sized closet, creating a private retreat. Outside, enjoy a fully fenced yard, carport, workshop, and raised garden beds—perfect for hobbies, storage, or cultivating your own garden. Conveniently located near Hwy 3, just 20 minutes from Olympia, this property offers both accessibility and opportunity. Bring your vision and make it your own—sold AS-IS.

Key facts

• Ensuite bath
• Doublewide
• Mini-split heat pump

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• DOUBLEWIDE
• PELLET STOVE
• MINI-SPLIT HEAT PUMP
• ENSUITE BATH
• GENEROUSLY SIZED CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Cash offers only (listing terms)

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport (1 covered space, 1 carport space)
• Security: Partially fenced
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer connected; Electric power; Internet service (Comcast/CentryLink); Power provided by PUD 3
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide) on its own land; One story; Main-level entry
• Construction: Metal/vinyl construction materials; Composition roof; Tie-down foundation; Manufactured house (double wide)
• Exterior features: Partially fenced yard; Outbuildings; Corner lot; Garden space; Metal/vinyl exterior

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Stove/Range; Kitchen with eating space
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on main level)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 three-quarter bathroom; 2 showers; 1 bathtub
• Heating & cooling: Ductless heating; Cooling available
• Interior features: Dining room; Fireplace (pellet stove)
• Laundry & utility: Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $480 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $170k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 3.1% in Shelton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#203 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, amenities A-; Watch: employment D+, crime F, commute F.
• Shelton School District (town): math 31% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #237 of 291 in WA (top 81%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bordeaux Elementary School (504 students, 68% FRL).
• Market conditions: 439 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 299 units permitted in Mason County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mason County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $175k implies a 119% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $169,750 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.76%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $466,560
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
309 W University Ave	0.21mi	3/2.5	1,333 (-7%)	13mo	$452,000	$339	65
520 Fairmount Ave	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,280 (-11%)	22mo	$329,000	$257	44
250 SE Arcadia Rd	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,620 (+12%)	17mo	$525,000	$324	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $2,205
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $41,205
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98584

• Active inventory: 439
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,025 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$129 /mo · $1,549/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $480

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,417

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $579	-5% $530	+0% $480	+5% $431	+10% $381
Rent	-10% $320	-5% $400	+0% $480	+5% $560	+10% $640
Rate	-1.0pp $568	-0.5pp $525	base $480	+0.5pp $435	+1.0pp $389

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $175,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $175,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $175,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $175,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    statusdays on market $175,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-05-04
    status Pending
15. 2026-04-16
    listed $175,000 Active
16. 2005-08-02
    soldstatus $80,000
17. 2005-08-02
    soldstatus $80,000
18. 2005-04-18
    listed $87,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,549 · $129/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,715 · $143/mo
• Expected delta: +$166/yr (+$14/mo · 10.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,303
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$1,549
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,944
• − Management: −$1,944
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $3,097
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$743
• After-tax cash flow: $5,020/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shelton School District
• NCES district ID: 5307900
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $45,467
• Composite: 34.1/100
• National rank: #10288
• State rank: #237 of 291 in WA

Livability — Shelton

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #203
• US rank: #5586

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living A- Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shelton, WA
• County: Mason County · 40,606 people
• City population: 40,606
• Metro: Shelton, WA
• Population (ZIP): 40,606
• Household income: $78,610
• Rent vs Own: 20.2% rent · 79.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 687.0

Population outlook (Mason County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,005 people
• By 2030: 58,567 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 54,735 · -8.8%
• By 2050: 51,470 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 46,276 · -22.9%
• By 2100: 39,883 · -33.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 11% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Mason

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.2% · R 49.7% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.7pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: R+3.9 2016: R+6.0 2012: D+6.9 2008: D+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -232.42%
• Current HPI: 199.0698
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Shelton, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+101.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Listed $175,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-08-02 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2005-08-02 Sold (MLS) $80,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-04-18 Listed $87,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,549 · -0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.