1620 County Road 616 · Venus, TX 76084

$140,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,032 sqft · Manufactured public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1990 0.80 ac lot $136/sqft · 34% below area Est $213k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Great opportunity to own this mid-renovation Mobile Home situated on . 80 acres! 3 Bedrooms, 2 Baths. Utilities on site! Come see today!. ..

Key facts

• Mobile home
• Utilities on site
• 0.80 acres

Tags

• MOBILE HOME
• 0.80 ACRES
• UTILITIES ON SITE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property classified as residential (mobile home)
• Financial info: Listing accepts Cash, Conventional, or Other financing; Special taxing entities: No
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking (open)
• Security: Audio and video surveillance present
• Utilities: Utilities: See remarks / Other; No municipal utility district
• Home design: Residential mobile home; Single-story
• Construction: Built in 1990
• Exterior features: Approximately 0.8-acre lot; Lot described as .5 to <1 Acre; Will not subdivide; Use navigation for directions

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the main level; Other appliances included
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level); Primary bedroom on the main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (main level)
• Interior features: One-level layout; 9 total rooms; 1 living area; 1 dining area; Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on the main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $567 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 3.0% in Venus — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#356 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Venus ISD (town): math 25% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #646 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Venus El (math 27% / reading 30%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 658 students, 82% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 60% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 428 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($968 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (7.3% local appreciation)).
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (7.3% appreciation + 2.4% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,800 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.34%
• DSCR: 1.77
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $213,000
• List price: $140,000
• Delta: -34.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

7.32% appreciation · 2.39% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.21×
• Total profit: $86,584
• Equity at exit: $99,963

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.67×
• Total profit: $222,111
• Equity at exit: $192,614

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76084

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 428
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,963 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$192 /mo · $2,305/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $567

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,246

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $646	-5% $606	+0% $567	+5% $527	+10% $487
Rent	-10% $411	-5% $489	+0% $567	+5% $644	+10% $722
Rate	-1.0pp $637	-0.5pp $602	base $567	+0.5pp $530	+1.0pp $493

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $140,000 Pending 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $140,000 Active Option Contract 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $140,000 Active Option Contract 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $140,000 Active Option Contract 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $140,000 Active Option Contract 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $140,000 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   days on market $140,000 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $140,000 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $140,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $140,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-04-17
    listed $140,000 Active 138-char remark
13. 1995-07-13
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,305 · $192/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,562 · $214/mo
• Expected delta: +$257/yr (+$21/mo · 11.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,562
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$2,305
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,885
• − Management: −$1,885
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $4,872
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,169
• After-tax cash flow: $5,629/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Venus ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844010
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,394
• Composite: 24.97/100
• National rank: #7563
• State rank: #646 of 826 in TX

Livability — Venus

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #356
• US rank: #7724

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Johnson County · 147,987 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,097
• Household income: $102,115
• Rent vs Own: 12.2% rent · 87.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 70.0

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 24% Black 11% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 18% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.32%
• Current HPI: 355.74
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.39%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-06-08 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $140,000 NTREIS
• 1995-07-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+15.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,305 · +26.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.