1040 Nys Rt 29 · Victory, NY 12871

$375,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,296 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1860 2.48 ac lot $163/sqft · 35% below area Est $575k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Cash flow +3.1/30.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming circa-1860 Colonial filled with warmth, history, and timeless character, lovingly maintained and ready for its next chapter. Set on over 2 picturesque acres along scenic Fish Creek, this special property offers a rare blend of peaceful privacy and natural beauty, perfect for swimming, kayaking, or simply enjoying the view. Inside, the home welcomes you with a flexible, inviting layout featuring spacious rooms, abundant natural light, and thoughtful built-ins throughout. With 3 bedrooms and 2 baths, the home offers both comfort and functionality. The eat-in kitchen is both functional and stylish with granite countertops and newer appliances, while updated baths add modern convenienc

Key facts

• Scenic fish creek
• Thoughtful built-ins
• Picturesque acres

Tags

• PICTURESQUE ACRES
• SCENIC FISH CREEK
• FLEXIBLE INVITING LAYOUT
• ABUNDANT NATURAL LIGHT
• THOUGHTFUL BUILT-INS
• EAT-IN KITCHEN

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Paved parking for 8 vehicles
• Utilities: Generator for electric service; Septic tank
• Home design: Single family residence; Facing riverfront
• Construction: Wood siding; Stone foundation; Metal and slate roof; Built living area of 2,296
• Exterior features: Deck; Partial fencing; Driveway - paved; Shed(s); Riverfront on Fish Creek; Cleared and landscaped lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second level; Two additional bedrooms on second level
• Flooring: Tile; Hardwood; Laminate
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (one on first level, one on second level)
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings; Built-in features; 3 fireplaces; Sump pump in unfinished basement; Total of 10 rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer/Dryer included; Laundry closet on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $375k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $163k (56.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (55.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $163k (56.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#865 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Schuylerville Central School District (rural): math 58% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #201 of 590 in NY (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Schuylerville Elementary School (math 60% / reading 66%, grade B, #669 of 2,108 statewide, top 32%, 597 students, 36% FRL); Schuylerville High School (math 92% / reading 70%, grade A, #495 of 1,100 statewide, top 46%, 482 students, 29% FRL).
• Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; 1,132 units permitted in Saratoga County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $40k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $38k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Saratoga County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$64k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1860 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $163,364 (56.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1860 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.45% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.69%
• DSCR: 0.39
• GRM: 18.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $574,917
• List price: $375,000
• Delta: -34.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.22×
• Total profit: $127,918
• Equity at exit: $337,830

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.16×
• Total profit: $436,672
• Equity at exit: $728,543

Cash invested: $105,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12871

• Home prices YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 32
• Price-to-rent: 18.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,682 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax from tax record: −$404 /mo · $4,848/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $-1,198

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,199

Max offer price $163,364

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-986	-5% $-1,092	+0% $-1,198	+5% $-1,304	+10% $-1,410
Rent	-10% $-1,331	-5% $-1,264	+0% $-1,198	+5% $-1,132	+10% $-1,065
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,009	-0.5pp $-1,103	base $-1,198	+0.5pp $-1,295	+1.0pp $-1,394

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,750
• Closing costs: $11,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending 1311-char remark
2. 2026-04-30
   listed $375,000 Active 1311-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,848 · $404/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,593 · $466/mo
• Expected delta: +$745/yr (+$62/mo · 15.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,184
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,006
• − Property taxes: −$4,848
• − Insurance: −$1,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,615
• − Management: −$1,615
• − Depreciation: −$10,909
• Taxable loss: −$21,684
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,204
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,172/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Schuylerville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3626160
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $69,011
• Composite: 53.71/100
• National rank: #1423
• State rank: #201 of 590 in NY

Livability — Victory

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #865
• US rank: #16653

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 567
• Population (ZIP): 3,997

Population outlook (Saratoga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 238,889 people
• By 2030: 243,681 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 249,118 · +4.3%
• By 2050: 248,638 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 241,675 · +1.2%
• By 2100: 213,150 · -10.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 9% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Saratoga

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.9% · R 49.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.6pp toward R · 2008: 3.4pp · 2024: 1.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.8 2020: D+5.4 2016: R+4.4 2012: D+2.1 2008: D+3.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.21%
• Current HPI: 320.1965
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — Global MLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $375,000 Global MLS

Property tax history

+10.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,848 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.