1154 Country Club Ln · Crystal Lake, FL 33801

$130,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 102 Days on market

Built 1977 10,820 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.3/30.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A never ending day at the lake. .. This home has been beautifully kept.

Key facts

• Dining and shopping
• Country club ln
• Peaceful lake

Tags

• PEACEFUL LAKE
• SKYVIEW LAKE
• COUNTRY CLUB LN
• DINING AND SHOPPING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in a PUD zoning; Lot dimensions approximately 50 x 216 feet (about 0.25 acre)
• HOA & community: No HOA/association indicated

Exterior

• Parking: Has a 1-space carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home (residential); Single-story; Faces east; Entry on one level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation
• Exterior features: Lakefront property on Skyview Lake with lake access and lake views; Other exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: No central heating listed; Mini-split cooling unit(s)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: No laundry hook-ups listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $237 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#620 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Clarence Boswell Elementary School (math 45% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,491 of 2,144 statewide, top 70%, 636 students, 62% FRL); Crystal Lake Middle School (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #497 of 571 statewide, top 88%, 949 students, 71% FRL); Tenoroc High School (math 12% / reading 25%, grade F, #568 of 667 statewide, top 85%, 1,127 students, 63% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 256 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $130k implies a 136% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,300 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.83%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-8,724
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $916
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33801

• Home prices YoY: -15.9%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 256
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,460 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$180 /mo · $2,165/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$307
• Net cashflow: $237

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,160

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $311	-5% $274	+0% $237	+5% $201	+10% $164
Rent	-10% $122	-5% $180	+0% $237	+5% $295	+10% $353
Rate	-1.0pp $303	-0.5pp $270	base $237	+0.5pp $204	+1.0pp $169

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2929 Nine Iron Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$875	$1.03	4d	1	0.23mi
1505 Goodyear Ave Unit 17 Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	792	$950	$1.20	25d	1	0.33mi
2839 8 Iron Dr Unit 2841 Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.5	900	$1,397	$1.55	25d	1	0.34mi
2830 Skyview Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,175	$1.38	25d	1	0.35mi
1323 Tom Watson Rd Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,350	$1.69	25d	1	0.42mi
1803 Venus St Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1259	$1,645	$1.31	4d	1	0.62mi
521 Skyline Dr E Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1260	$2,300	$1.83	4d	1	0.76mi
2524 Kiwanis Ave Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.5	1468	$1,670	$1.14	13d	1	0.84mi
3306 Peachtree Hill Rd Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	742	$1,195	$1.61	16d	1	0.92mi
3061 Crystal Hills Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	720	$1,400	$1.94	25d	1	0.93mi
2402 Kiwanis Ave Unit 1258725P Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.0	1194	$3,262	$2.73	16d	1	0.94mi
3321 Peachtree Hill Rd Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	960	$1,475	$1.54	16d	1	0.95mi
3245 E Main St Unit 2 Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	700	$1,250	$1.79	16d	1	0.96mi
3245 E Main St Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	25d	1	0.96mi
1922 Crystal Grove Dr #1922 Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1014	$1,547	$1.53	25d	1	1.16mi
1969 Crystal Grove Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	576	$1,415	$2.46	4d	8	1.20mi
2184 Colonial Ave Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1123	$1,645	$1.46	25d	1	1.24mi
2919 Maine Ave Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.0	1134	$1,275	$1.12	15d	1	1.30mi
2023 Tennyson St Unit 2025 Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	884	$1,095	$1.24	25d	1	1.40mi
1233 Honeytree Ln E Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1355	$2,250	$1.66	4d	1	1.41mi
510 Longfellow Blvd Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1315	$1,825	$1.39	4d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $130,000 Active 102 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $130,000 Active 99 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $130,000 Active 98 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $130,000 Active 97 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,000 Active 96 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $130,000 Active 94 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $130,000 Active 91 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $130,000 Active 90 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $130,000 Active 89 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $130,000 Active 88 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $130,000 Active 85 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $130,000 Active 84 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $130,000 Active 83 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $130,000 Active 82 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $130,000 Active 81 DOM
16. 2026-03-11
    listed $130,000 Active
17. 2026-03-09
    soldstatus $55,000
18. 2005-12-08
    soldstatus $68,000
19. 2004-09-22
    soldstatus $58,000
20. 2004-09-16
    soldstatus $58,000 71-char remark

    Show marketing remark (71 chars)

    A never ending day at the lake. .. This home has been beautifully kept.

21. 2004-08-14
    historical 71-char remark

    Show marketing remark (71 chars)

    A never ending day at the lake. .. This home has been beautifully kept.

22. 2004-07-09
    listed $59,500 71-char remark

    Show marketing remark (71 chars)

    A never ending day at the lake. .. This home has been beautifully kept.

23. 2000-10-19
    soldstatus $45,000
24. 1999-07-13
    soldstatus $45,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,165 · $180/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,165 · $180/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,524
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$2,165
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,402
• − Management: −$1,402
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $842
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$202
• After-tax cash flow: $2,647/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Crystal Lake

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #620
• US rank: #12023

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Crystal Lake, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 33,460
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,394
• Household income: $53,061
• Rent vs Own: 51.3% rent · 48.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1291.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 16% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 14% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.91%
• Current HPI: 373.7159
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.05%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+185.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Listed $130,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-09 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2005-12-08 Sold (Public Records) $68,000 Public Records
• 2004-09-22 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records
• 2004-09-16 Sold (MLS) $58,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-08-14 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-07-09 Listed $59,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-10-19 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 1999-07-13 Sold (Public Records) $45,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+32.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,165 · +7.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.