971 County Road 2657 · Huxley, TX 75973

$99,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 780 sqft · Manufactured public records · 87 Days on market

Built 1980 0.34 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Appreciation +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

REDUCED MOTIVATED SELLER!!! Have Your Place Near the Lake! Remodeled 3/2 manufactured home with add on covered porches. Kitchen has new gas cook top, oven and dishwasher. Building on slab for storage or workshop and extra lot for garden or other uses. Ready for occupancy. Cash or Conventional only.

Key facts

• New oven
• New gas cook top
• New dishwasher

Tags

• REMODELED MANUFACTURED HOME
• ADD ON COVERED PORCHES
• NEW GAS COOK TOP
• NEW OVEN
• NEW DISHWASHER
• BUILDING ON SLAB

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $130 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $93k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#863 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Joaquin ISD (rural): math 52% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #202 of 826 in TX (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.1%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shelby County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($93k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $93,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.62%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.07% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-3,867
• Equity at exit: $18,897

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $10,815
• Equity at exit: $15,835

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75973

• Home prices YoY: -1.3%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,040 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$131 /mo · $1,573/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$218
• Net cashflow: $130

Break-even live

Break-even rent $875

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $186	-5% $158	+0% $130	+5% $102	+10% $74
Rent	-10% $48	-5% $89	+0% $130	+5% $171	+10% $212
Rate	-1.0pp $180	-0.5pp $155	base $130	+0.5pp $104	+1.0pp $78

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-03-16
   price $99,000 304-char remark

   Show marketing remark (304 chars)

   REDUCED MOTIVATED SELLER!!! Have Your Place Near the Lake! Remodeled 3/2 manufactured home with add on covered porches. Kitchen has new gas cook top, oven and dishwasher. Building on slab for storage or workshop and extra lot for garden or other uses. Ready for occupancy. Cash or Conventional only.

2. 2024-06-27
   historical
3. 2024-04-02
   listed
4. 2024-02-29
   soldstatus
5. 2024-02-13
   listed $107,500 Active 304-char remark

   Show marketing remark (304 chars)

   REDUCED MOTIVATED SELLER!!! Have Your Place Near the Lake! Remodeled 3/2 manufactured home with add on covered porches. Kitchen has new gas cook top, oven and dishwasher. Building on slab for storage or workshop and extra lot for garden or other uses. Ready for occupancy. Cash or Conventional only.

6. 2024-01-05
   historical
7. 2023-09-03
   listed
8. 2023-08-30
   historical
9. 2022-12-12
   historical
10. 2022-07-01
    soldstatus
11. 2020-02-06
    historical
12. 2019-09-06
    listed $86,000
13. 2016-01-12
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,573 · $131/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,812 · $151/mo
• Expected delta: +$239/yr (+$20/mo · 15.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,476
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$1,573
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$998
• − Management: −$998
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable loss: −$14
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3
• After-tax cash flow: $1,561/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Joaquin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824810
• Math proficiency: 52% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,025
• Composite: 41.32/100
• National rank: #3508
• State rank: #202 of 826 in TX

Livability — Huxley

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #863
• US rank: #15570

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,564

Population outlook (Shelby County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 25,199 people
• By 2030: 24,986 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 24,646 · -2.2%
• By 2050: 24,144 · -4.2%
• By 2075: 22,328 · -11.4%
• By 2100: 18,734 · -25.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 16% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Scottish 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Shelby

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.6) · D 17.5% · R 82.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.3pp toward R · 2008: -44.3pp · 2024: -64.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.6 2020: R+58.6 2016: R+59.7 2012: R+49.1 2008: R+44.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.07%
• Current HPI: 154.4854
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+15.1% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $99,000 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2024-06-27 Rental Removed — BUILDIUM
• 2024-04-02 Listed for Rent — BUILDIUM
• 2024-02-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-02-13 Listed $107,500 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2024-01-05 Rental Removed — BUILDIUM
• 2023-09-03 Listed for Rent — BUILDIUM
• 2023-08-30 Rental Removed — BUILDIUM
• 2022-12-12 Rental Removed — BUILDIUM
• 2022-07-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-02-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-09-06 Listed $86,000 HARMLS
• 2016-01-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+11.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,573 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.