2815 Willows Rd #116 · Ilwaco, WA 98644

$379,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,183 sqft · Condo · 91 Days on market

Built 2005 $321/sqft · at area comps Est $384k · at est. $435/mo HOA · 15% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +8.1/15.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Appreciation +7.3/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

Million Dollar view at a fraction of the cost. This ground floor condo unit is 2 bed 2 full bath with a view from the primary suite. There is a one car detached assigned garage in this building that is 90 feet above sea level. Come and clam dig or fish or vacation in this seaside community and enjoy the freshest air on the planet. The HOA is very healthy and has a large portion of owner occupied units. Price reduced for someone looking for the best beach condo on the peninsula! Lovely interior furnishings are included in the sale.

Key facts

• Ground floor condo
• Seaside community
• Owner occupied units

Tags

• GROUND FLOOR CONDO
• SEASIDE COMMUNITY
• OWNER OCCUPIED UNITS
• INTERIOR FURNISHINGS INCLUDED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $380k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-457 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $299k (21.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $296k (22.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $296k (22.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#205 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Ocean Beach School District (rural): math 34% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #212 of 291 in WA (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Long Beach Elementary School (221 students, 80% FRL); Hilltop Elementary School (236 students, 70% FRL); Ilwaco High School (296 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 56% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 90 units permitted in Pacific County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (4.6% local appreciation)).
• Pacific County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($345k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $239k; list at $380k implies a 59% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $295,868 (22.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.16%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $384,323
• List price: $379,500
• Delta: -1.25%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

4.59% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $49,698
• Equity at exit: $205,695

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.70×
• Total profit: $180,136
• Equity at exit: $347,492

Cash invested: $106,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98644

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 25
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,959 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,990
• Tax from tax record: −$211 /mo · $2,536/yr
• Insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$435
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$621
• Net cashflow: $-457

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,537

Max offer price $298,729

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-242	-5% $-350	+0% $-457	+5% $-565	+10% $-672
Rent	-10% $-691	-5% $-574	+0% $-457	+5% $-340	+10% $-223
Rate	-1.0pp $-266	-0.5pp $-361	base $-457	+0.5pp $-556	+1.0pp $-656

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $94,875
• Closing costs: $11,385
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $435 · $5,220/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $379,500 Active 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $379,500 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $379,500 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $379,500 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $379,500 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $379,500 Active 85 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $379,500 Active 84 DOM
8. 2026-06-15
   days on market $379,500 Active 83 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $379,500 Active 82 DOM
10. 2026-06-12
    days on market $379,500 Active 81 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $379,500 Active 78 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $379,500 Active 77 DOM
13. 2026-06-08
    days on market $379,500 Active 76 DOM
14. 2026-06-07
    days on market $379,500 Active 75 DOM
15. 2026-06-03
    days on market $379,500 Active 72 DOM
16. 2026-06-02
    days on market $379,500 Active 71 DOM
17. 2026-06-01
    days on market $379,500 Active 70 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $379,500 Active 69 DOM
19. 2026-03-23
    status Active
20. 2026-03-22
    status Active
21. 2025-09-21
    listed $379,500 Active
22. 2017-03-30
    soldstatus $239,000 Sold
23. 2017-03-30
    soldstatus $205,433
24. 2017-03-13
    status Pending
25. 2017-03-04
    price $249,000
26. 2017-03-04
    listed $229,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,536 · $211/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,719 · $310/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,183/yr (+$99/mo · 46.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥72°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,504
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,258
• − Property taxes: −$2,536
• − Insurance: −$1,898
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,840
• − Management: −$2,840
• − HOA: −$5,220
• − Depreciation: −$11,040
• Taxable loss: −$12,128
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,911
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,576/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ocean Beach School District
• NCES district ID: 5306060
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $38,549
• Composite: 37.37/100
• National rank: #8929
• State rank: #212 of 291 in WA

Livability — Ilwaco

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #205
• US rank: #5623

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 686

Population outlook (Pacific County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,636 people
• By 2030: 20,137 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 19,041 · -7.7%
• By 2050: 18,504 · -10.3%
• By 2075: 17,403 · -15.7%
• By 2100: 16,241 · -21.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 6% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 7% Italian 6% Iranian 5%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 12% French/Haitian/Cajun 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Pacific

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 49.4% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.4pp toward R · 2008: 14.1pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: R+1.1 2016: R+6.9 2012: D+11.4 2008: D+14.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.59%
• Current HPI: 254.3311
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+65.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-22 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-21 Listed $379,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-03-30 Sold (Public Records) $205,433 Public Records
• 2017-03-30 Sold (MLS) $239,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-03-13 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-03-04 Price Changed $249,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-03-04 Listed $229,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,536 · +0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.