5218 Penfield Ln · Houston, TX 77021

$120,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,090 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 137 Days on market

Built 1950 6,324 sqft lot $110/sqft · 41% below area Est $204k · 41% under ↓ 40% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great Location Inside the Loop. House is minutes to the railway I45 & 610 Loop. Very close to University of Houston. close to Medical Center, close to Downtown.

Key facts

• Close to downtown
• 6,324 sq ft lot
• Built 1950

Tags

• GREAT LOCATION INSIDE THE LOOP
• MINUTES TO THE RAILWAY
• CLOSE TO UNIVERSITY OF HOUSTON
• CLOSE TO MEDICAL CENTER
• CLOSE TO DOWNTOWN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $159 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 467 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($46k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 137 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 137 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.04%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $203,772
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: -41.11%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5107 Dickens Rd	0.23mi	3/1.0	1,064 (-2%)	10mo	$159,000	$149	77
5063 Nassau Rd	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,092 (+0%)	10mo	$222,900	$204	75
5034 Nassau Rd	0.32mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,049 (-4%)	13mo	$100,000	$95	62
5234 Browncroft St	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,096 (+1%)	12mo	$199,800	$182	61
5311 Dewberry St	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,092 (+0%)	14mo	$149,999	$137	59
5303 Dewberry St	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,050 (-4%)	11mo	$130,000	$124	55
5023 Nassau Rd	0.36mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,001 (-8%)	14mo	$125,000	$125	53
6112 Pineway Blvd	0.51mi	3/1.0	1,233 (+13%)	5mo	$175,000	$142	50
6111 Cavanaugh St	0.67mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,136 (+4%)	8mo	$144,900	$128	50
6018 Beekman Rd	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,202 (+10%)	9mo	$242,000	$201	47
5822 Grace Ln	0.70mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,178 (+8%)	5mo	$90,000	$76	45
5342 Dewberry St	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,250 (+15%)	13mo	$224,000	$179	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-10,418
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-428
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77021

• Home prices YoY: -23.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 467
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,461 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$249 /mo · $2,993/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$307
• Net cashflow: $159

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,260

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5610 Royal Palms St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$950	$1.06	24d	1	0.24mi
5101 Martin Luther King Blvd Unit MO54 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,210	$0.92	12d	1	0.30mi
5154 Griggs Rd Unit CAVE Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,420	$1.07	3d	1	0.36mi
5116 Griggs Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1131	$1,316	$1.16	43d	1	0.40mi
5520 Griggs Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,241	$0.94	43d	1	0.41mi
5520 Griggs Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,241	$0.94	22d	1	0.41mi
5514 Griggs Rd Unit 2047 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,225	$0.93	11d	1	0.42mi
5514 Griggs Rd Unit 2047 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,214	$0.92	3d	1	0.42mi
4977 Martin Luther King Blvd Houston, TX	4.0	4.0	1396	$870	$0.62	24d	1	0.43mi
5514 Griggs Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,210	$0.92	43d	1	0.48mi
5514 Griggs Rd Unit 2187 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,182	$0.89	3d	1	0.49mi
5514 Griggs Rd Unit 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,190	$0.90	7d	1	0.49mi
5514 Griggs Rd Unit 2162 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,190	$0.90	5d	1	0.49mi
5514 Griggs Rd Unit 5571 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,214	$0.92	11d	1	0.49mi
5924 Schroeder Rd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$895	$0.99	43d	1	0.64mi
5924 Schroeder Rd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$895	$0.99	22d	1	0.64mi
5918 Schroeder Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	850	$1,000	$1.18	43d	1	0.64mi
5123 Dewberry St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1391	$2,400	$1.73	43d	1	0.65mi
4722 Old Spanish Trl Unit B301 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1027	$1,695	$1.65	44d	1	0.73mi
5835 Southmont St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,700	$1.42	43d	1	1.00mi
4465 N MacGregor Way Houston, TX	4.0	4.0	1366	$940	$0.69	24d	1	1.03mi
6528 Weston St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1484	$2,200	$1.48	43d	1	1.09mi
2801 Carrolton St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	650	$899	$1.38	1d	4	1.10mi
2801 Carrolton St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	650	$849	$1.31	43d	2	1.10mi
6532 Weston St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1484	$2,200	$1.48	18d	1	1.10mi
5537 Bataan Rd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	880	$1,300	$1.48	43d	1	1.12mi
5813 England St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1473	$2,195	$1.49	4d	1	1.23mi
3852 Telephone Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	911	$1,640	$1.80	2d	19	1.26mi
2606 Beatty St Unit 224 Houston, TX	2.0	1.5	700	$950	$1.36	24d	1	1.34mi
2606 Beatty St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	700	$950	$1.36	24d	1	1.35mi
3810 Weslow St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	924	$1,449	$1.57	43d	1	1.35mi
3810 Weslow St Unit B Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	924	$1,149	$1.24	7d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 137 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 136 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 135 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 134 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 132 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $120,000 Active 128 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 127 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $120,000 Active 126 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $120,000 Active 123 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 120 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 119 DOM
12. 2026-04-12
    price $120,000 165-char remark

    Show marketing remark (165 chars)

    Great Location Inside the Loop. House is minutes to the railway I45 & 610 Loop. Very close to University of Houston. close to Medical Center, close to Downtown.

13. 2026-02-01
    listed $145,000 Active 165-char remark

    Show marketing remark (165 chars)

    Great Location Inside the Loop. House is minutes to the railway I45 & 610 Loop. Very close to University of Houston. close to Medical Center, close to Downtown.

14. 2025-12-01
    historical
15. 2025-06-03
    price $165,000
16. 2025-03-04
    listed $180,000 Active
17. 2024-06-04
    historical
18. 2024-05-10
    price $175,000
19. 2024-05-03
    price $180,000
20. 2024-04-26
    price $185,000
21. 2024-04-23
    price $190,000
22. 2024-04-18
    price $195,000
23. 2024-04-12
    listed $200,000 Active
24. 2011-05-05
    soldstatus
25. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,993 · $249/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,993 · $249/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 95% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,529
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$2,993
• − Insurance: −$1,398
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,402
• − Management: −$1,402
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $121
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$29
• After-tax cash flow: $1,876/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 26,153
• Household income: $45,574
• Rent vs Own: 58.2% rent · 41.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2532.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 62% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 12% White 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 19% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.22%
• Current HPI: 230.2869
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.17%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-40.0% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-12 Price Changed $120,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-01 Listed $145,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-06-03 Price Changed $165,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-04 Listed $180,000 HARMLS
• 2024-06-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-05-10 Price Changed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2024-05-03 Price Changed $180,000 HARMLS
• 2024-04-26 Price Changed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2024-04-23 Price Changed $190,000 HARMLS
• 2024-04-18 Price Changed $195,000 HARMLS
• 2024-04-12 Listed $200,000 HARMLS
• 2011-05-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,993 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.