6399 Raley Rd · Hill 'n Dale, FL 34602

$242,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,093 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 2018 7,200 sqft lot Est $222k · 9% over ↓ 45% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• ARV discount +3.4/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The stunning Palm by LGI Homes is located within the family-friendly community of Hill ‘N Dale. This new, one-story home features an open floor plan, 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths complete with over $10,000 in upgrades including energy-efficient appliances, spacious kitchen countertops, beautiful wood cabinets, brushed nickel hardware and an attached garage. The Palm consists of a master suite complete with a spacious walk-in closet, as well as a utility room and front yard landscaping. In addition, Hill ‘N Dale offers residents numerous amenities including a playground, a basketball court, a multipurpose sports field, a gazebo and a covered picnic area.

Key facts

• Bright open layout
• Spacious pantry
• Bar-top seating

Tags

• BRIGHT OPEN LAYOUT
• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHEN
• FULL APPLIANCE PACKAGE
• SPACIOUS PANTRY
• BAR-TOP SEATING
• DEDICATED DINING AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $242k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $32 ($387/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (9.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (9.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 5.3% in Hill 'n Dale — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Hernando (suburban): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #38 of 73 in FL (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Eastside Elementary School (math 37% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,709 of 2,144 statewide, top 81%, 737 students, 73% FRL); D. S. Parrott Middle School (math 40% / reading 40%, grade F, #368 of 571 statewide, top 65%, 835 students, 67% FRL); Hernando High School (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #275 of 667 statewide, top 42%, 1,299 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: 187 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,505 units permitted in Hernando County in 2024 (318 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hernando County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $218,315 (9.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.57%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $221,879
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6399 Raley Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,091 (-0%)	1mo	$237,000	$217	99
26412 MC Allister St	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,093 (0%)	3mo	$250,000	$229	94
27009 Anthony Ave	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,093 (0%)	4mo	$239,999	$220	91
26359 Eahnestock St	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,091 (-0%)	0mo	$210,000	$192	84
26411 Bertram Rd	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,000 (-8%)	8mo	$155,000	$155	72
27119 Simona Ave	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,107 (+1%)	9mo	$225,000	$203	70
27083 Roper Rd	0.29mi	3/1.5	1,000 (-8%)	4mo	$190,000	$190	67
27176 Wakefield Dr	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,141 (+4%)	2mo	$208,000	$182	64
27168 Fernery Ave	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,000 (-8%)	1mo	$190,000	$190	63
27200 Fernery Ave	0.53mi	3/1.5	1,000 (-8%)	3mo	$212,000	$212	56
26369 Eahnestock St	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,236 (+13%)	8mo	$252,500	$204	56
6155 Sumter Dr	0.58mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,042 (-5%)	1mo	$127,000	$122	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-37,115
• Equity at exit: $36,083

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-29,491
• Equity at exit: $20,924

Cash invested: $67,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34602

• Home prices YoY: -21.1%
• Active inventory: 187
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,183 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,269
• Tax from tax record: −$323 /mo · $3,870/yr
• Insurance: −$101
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $32

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,142

Max offer price $242,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $169	-5% $101	+0% $32	+5% $-36	+10% $-105
Rent	-10% $-140	-5% $-54	+0% $32	+5% $118	+10% $205
Rate	-1.0pp $154	-0.5pp $94	base $32	+0.5pp $-30	+1.0pp $-94

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,500
• Closing costs: $7,260
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
27008 Anthony Ave Brooksville, FL	3.0	2.0	1043	$1,795	$1.72	26d	1	0.14mi
6367 Enterprise Dr Unit 1234457P Brooksville, FL	3.0	2.0	1119	$3,367	$3.01	1d	1	0.22mi
27108 Simona Ave Brooksville, FL	3.0	1.0	1092	$1,700	$1.56	26d	1	0.35mi
27103 Frampton Ave Brooksville, FL	2.0	2.0	1176	$1,700	$1.45	26d	1	0.37mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-15
   listed $242,000 Active
3. 2026-04-06
   soldstatus $222,571
4. 2019-02-08
   soldstatus $165,900 672-char remark

   Show marketing remark (672 chars)

   The stunning Palm by LGI Homes is located within the family-friendly community of Hill ‘N Dale. This new, one-story home features an open floor plan, 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths complete with over $10,000 in upgrades including energy-efficient appliances, spacious kitchen countertops, beautiful wood cabinets, brushed nickel hardware and an attached garage. The Palm consists of a master suite complete with a spacious walk-in closet, as well as a utility room and front yard landscaping. In addition, Hill ‘N Dale offers residents numerous amenities including a playground, a basketball court, a multipurpose sports field, a gazebo and a covered picnic area.

5. 2018-11-09
   listed $166,900 672-char remark

   Show marketing remark (672 chars)

   The stunning Palm by LGI Homes is located within the family-friendly community of Hill ‘N Dale. This new, one-story home features an open floor plan, 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths complete with over $10,000 in upgrades including energy-efficient appliances, spacious kitchen countertops, beautiful wood cabinets, brushed nickel hardware and an attached garage. The Palm consists of a master suite complete with a spacious walk-in closet, as well as a utility room and front yard landscaping. In addition, Hill ‘N Dale offers residents numerous amenities including a playground, a basketball court, a multipurpose sports field, a gazebo and a covered picnic area.

6. 2017-11-03
   soldstatus $309,000
7. 2017-09-28
   soldstatus $21,300
8. 2017-02-17
   soldstatus $12,500
9. 2010-11-16
   soldstatus $4,500
10. 2010-10-07
    historical
11. 2010-04-09
    listed $5,000
12. 2005-12-29
    soldstatus $106,700
13. 2000-08-24
    soldstatus $374,000
14. 1996-07-15
    soldstatus $438,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,870 · $323/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,870 · $323/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,198
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,556
• − Property taxes: −$3,870
• − Insurance: −$1,210
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,096
• − Management: −$2,096
• − Depreciation: −$7,040
• Taxable loss: −$3,670
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$881
• After-tax cash flow: $1,268/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hernando
• NCES district ID: 1200810
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,985
• Composite: 42.03/100
• National rank: #3329
• State rank: #38 of 73 in FL

Livability — Hill 'n Dale

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hill 'n Dale, FL
• Population (ZIP): 10,391

Population outlook (Hernando County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 189,218 people
• By 2030: 194,367 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 203,398 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 209,589 · +10.8%
• By 2075: 218,452 · +15.4%
• By 2100: 205,923 · +8.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 14% Black 11% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Dominican Republic, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Hernando

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.0) · D 31.1% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.5pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -37.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.0 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+29.0 2012: R+8.5 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.28%
• Current HPI: 282.3728
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-44.8% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Listed $242,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-06 Sold (Public Records) $222,571 Public Records
• 2019-02-08 Sold (MLS) $165,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-11-09 Listed $166,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-11-03 Sold (Public Records) $309,000 Public Records
• 2017-09-28 Sold (Public Records) $21,300 Public Records
• 2017-02-17 Sold (Public Records) $12,500 Public Records
• 2010-11-16 Sold (Public Records) $4,500 Public Records
• 2010-10-07 Listing Removed — HCAR
• 2010-04-09 Listed $5,000 HCAR
• 2005-12-29 Sold (Public Records) $106,700 Public Records
• 2000-08-24 Sold (Public Records) $374,000 Public Records
• 1996-07-15 Sold (Public Records) $438,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+33.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,870 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.