2414 38th St · Lubbock, TX 79412

$145,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,733 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1956 7,950 sqft lot $84/sqft · 16% above area Est $125k · 16% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.4/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This charming four-bedroom, one and a half bath home is full of character and ready to welcome its next owners. With two spacious living areas, it offers plenty of room for entertaining guests or simply relaxing with family. Located near Texas Tech University, it's a great choice for those who want convenient access to campus and all the surrounding amenities. Inside, you'll find fresh paint throughout and updated carpeting that gives the home a clean, modern feel. The layout provides a comfortable blend of privacy and open space, ideal for both everyday living and special gatherings. The seller is currently putting the finishing touches on the backyard fence and exterior trim, adding even

Key facts

• Updated carpeting
• Backyard fence
• 7,950 sq ft lot

Tags

• TWO SPACIOUS LIVING AREAS
• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO CAMPUS
• FRESH PAINT THROUGHOUT
• UPDATED CARPETING
• BACKYARD FENCE
• WELL MAINTAINED HOUSE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Covered driveway; Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected and available; Natural gas connected and available; Phone available
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property, updated/remodeled
• Construction: Masonite exterior; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Composition roof; Built on a 0.18-acre lot
• Exterior features: Private yard; Patio; Fenced backyard; Paved city street access (public maintained road)

Interior

• Kitchen: Disposal; Dishwasher; Gas range; Gas water heater
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Electric cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Bookcases; Ceiling fans; His and hers closets; Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry room with washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $43 ($518/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $133k (8.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $133k (8.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Brown El Gr Pk To 01 (188 students, 94% FRL); Slaton Middle (math 13% / reading 16%, grade F, #1,583 of 1,662 statewide, top 96%, 355 students, 96% FRL); Coronado H S (math 34% / reading 38%, grade F, #930 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 1,960 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 85% FRL vs 60% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 25% at this address vs 38% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Lubbock ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 110 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($49k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 7% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $133,302 (8.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.28%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $125,220
• List price: $145,000
• Delta: 15.80%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.87% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-19,546
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-8,464
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79412

• Home prices YoY: -15.3%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,333 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$189 /mo · $2,269/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$280
• Net cashflow: $43

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,278

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $125	-5% $84	+0% $43	+5% $2	+10% $-39
Rent	-10% $-62	-5% $-10	+0% $43	+5% $96	+10% $148
Rate	-1.0pp $116	-0.5pp $80	base $43	+0.5pp $6	+1.0pp $-33

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2506 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1053	$1,550	$1.47	22d	1	0.08mi
2403 38th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1786	$1,700	$0.95	44d	1	0.09mi
2508 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	1495	$1,700	$1.14	44d	1	0.09mi
2408 35th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1072	$995	$0.93	22d	1	0.19mi
2217 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1284	$1,109	$0.86	14d	1	0.26mi
2215 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1578	$1,450	$0.92	44d	1	0.27mi
2609 41st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1469	$1,550	$1.06	22d	1	0.30mi
2601 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1894	$1,800	$0.95	22d	1	0.32mi
2712 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1136	$1,300	$1.14	44d	1	0.34mi
2400 44th St Lubbock, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$1,225	$1.21	14d	23	0.40mi
2801 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1446	$2,700	$1.87	44d	1	0.42mi
2108 38th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1124	$900	$0.80	44d	1	0.43mi
2211 33rd St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1293	$1,200	$0.93	44d	1	0.44mi
2430 31st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1592	$1,450	$0.91	44d	1	0.45mi
2611 44th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,395	$1.16	44d	1	0.47mi
2614 31st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1549	$1,650	$1.07	44d	1	0.50mi
2420 30th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1092	$1,100	$1.01	22d	1	0.51mi
2416 30th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1746	$1,425	$0.82	22d	1	0.52mi
2518 30th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1558	$1,750	$1.12	22d	1	0.53mi
2613 30th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1472	$1,500	$1.02	44d	1	0.53mi
2119 32nd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1055	$950	$0.90	44d	1	0.56mi
2103 33rd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1075	$700	$0.65	14d	1	0.57mi
2823 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1105	$950	$0.86	44d	1	0.58mi
2812 43rd St Unit 6 Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1104	$700	$0.63	44d	1	0.58mi
2812 43rd St Unit 7 Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1104	$750	$0.68	22d	1	0.58mi
2316 47th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1285	$1,400	$1.09	22d	1	0.58mi
2815 43rd St Unit 11 Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1085	$800	$0.74	22d	1	0.62mi
2106 32nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1398	$695	$0.50	22d	1	0.63mi
2106 32nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1398	$925	$0.66	44d	1	0.63mi
1919 34th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1463	$1,100	$0.75	14d	1	0.63mi
2319 28th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	2146	$1,650	$0.77	22d	1	0.63mi
2220 29th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	2032	$1,300	$0.64	44d	1	0.65mi
2003 32nd St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1228	$1,150	$0.94	44d	1	0.67mi
3007 32nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1353	$1,325	$0.98	22d	1	0.67mi
3019 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1573	$1,500	$0.95	14d	1	0.70mi
3108 39th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1504	$1,295	$0.86	22d	1	0.70mi
3019 42nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1053	$1,250	$1.19	22d	1	0.70mi
2404 27th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1250	$1,349	$1.08	44d	1	0.71mi
3101 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1250	$999	$0.80	44d	1	0.72mi
1920 44th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1391	$795	$0.57	22d	1	0.72mi

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $145,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $145,000 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $145,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $145,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $145,000 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $145,000 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,000 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 20 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $145,000 Active 19 DOM
17. 2026-05-15
    status Pending 888-char remark
18. 2026-05-04
    listed $135,000 Active 888-char remark
19. 2025-10-12
    historical $1,295
20. 2025-09-23
    price $135,000
21. 2025-09-22
    price $1,295
22. 2025-09-09
    price $1,350
23. 2025-08-28
    price $1,475
24. 2025-08-26
    price $144,900
25. 2025-08-14
    price $1,575
26. 2025-08-02
    listed $1,700
27. 2025-07-09
    price $149,900
28. 2022-01-01
    price $1,050
29. 2002-12-18
    soldstatus
30. 1983-04-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,269 · $189/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,654 · $221/mo
• Expected delta: +$384/yr (+$32/mo · 16.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,996
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$2,269
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,280
• − Management: −$1,280
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable loss: −$1,898
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$456
• After-tax cash flow: $973/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 15,018
• Household income: $48,878
• Rent vs Own: 51.2% rent · 48.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 676.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 61% Two or more races 25% White 25% Black 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 32% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -33.95%
• Current HPI: 188.4033
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.87%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+13709.5% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Relisted — LARMLS
• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $145,000 LARMLS
• 2026-05-15 Pending — LARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Listed $135,000 LARMLS
• 2025-10-12 Rental Removed $1,295 APPFOLIO
• 2025-09-23 Price Changed $135,000 LARMLS
• 2025-09-22 Price Changed $1,295 APPFOLIO
• 2025-09-09 Price Changed $1,350 APPFOLIO
• 2025-08-28 Price Changed $1,475 APPFOLIO
• 2025-08-26 Price Changed $144,900 LARMLS
• 2025-08-14 Price Changed $1,575 APPFOLIO
• 2025-08-02 Listed for Rent $1,700 APPFOLIO
• 2025-07-09 Price Changed $149,900 LARMLS
• 2022-01-01 Price Changed $1,050 RENT.
• 2002-12-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1983-04-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,269 · -13.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.