187 Vaughn Rd · Hudson Falls, NY 12839

$99,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,274 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1900 1.60 ac lot $78/sqft · 71% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.4/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome To 187 Vaughn Rd! This Parcel Features: -1.6 Acres Property Needs Rehab. Cash. As Is. Assignment Of Contract.

Key facts

• 1.6 acre lot
• Built 1900
• Listed 54 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $260 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 3.9% in Hudson Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#481 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A-; Watch: schools C-, crime D, employment D.
• Hudson Falls Central School District (suburban): math 39% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #486 of 590 in NY (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 106 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Washington County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 25% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $96,903 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.16%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $345,672
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: -71.10%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
29 Lori Ave	0.35mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-2%)	13mo	$265,000	$212	65
87 Vaughn Rd	0.46mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,230 (-4%)	6mo	$279,000	$227	62
13 Alexander Way	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,260 (-1%)	7mo	$340,000	$270	54
23 Quarry Circle Way	0.68mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,260 (-1%)	9mo	$317,000	$252	50
2 Alexander Way	0.67mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,260 (-1%)	10mo	$340,000	$270	50
4 Luke Ln	0.63mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+13%)	0mo	$395,000	$274	39
12 Alexander Ln	0.61mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,244 (-2%)	23mo	$350,152	$281	39
8 Alexander Way	0.63mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,120 (-12%)	12mo	$315,000	$281	32
6 Devine Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,176 (-8%)	20mo	$308,000	$262	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.54×
• Total profit: $71,088
• Equity at exit: $89,998

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.1%
• Equity multiple: 8.03×
• Total profit: $196,529
• Equity at exit: $194,084

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12839

• Home prices YoY: 8.5%
• Active inventory: 58
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,386 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$269 /mo · $3,232/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$291
• Net cashflow: $260

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,057

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $317	-5% $288	+0% $260	+5% $232	+10% $204
Rent	-10% $151	-5% $205	+0% $260	+5% $315	+10% $370
Rate	-1.0pp $310	-0.5pp $286	base $260	+0.5pp $234	+1.0pp $208

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $99,900 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 52 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 51 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 49 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,900 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,900 Active 44 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 43 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $99,900 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,900 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,900 Active 37 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,900 Active 36 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 35 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 34 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 33 DOM
17. 2026-05-15
    status Active 126-char remark

    Show marketing remark (126 chars)

    Welcome To 187 Vaughn Rd! This Parcel Features: -1.6 Acres Property Needs Rehab. Cash. As Is. Assignment Of Contract.

18. 2026-05-15
    price $99,900 126-char remark

    Show marketing remark (126 chars)

    Welcome To 187 Vaughn Rd! This Parcel Features: -1.6 Acres Property Needs Rehab. Cash. As Is. Assignment Of Contract.

19. 2025-09-29
    status Pending 126-char remark

    Show marketing remark (126 chars)

    Welcome To 187 Vaughn Rd! This Parcel Features: -1.6 Acres Property Needs Rehab. Cash. As Is. Assignment Of Contract.

20. 2025-09-12
    listed $79,900 Active 126-char remark

    Show marketing remark (126 chars)

    Welcome To 187 Vaughn Rd! This Parcel Features: -1.6 Acres Property Needs Rehab. Cash. As Is. Assignment Of Contract.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,232 · $269/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,232 · $269/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,633
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$3,232
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,331
• − Management: −$1,331
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $1,738
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$417
• After-tax cash flow: $2,705/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hudson Falls Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3614970
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,019
• Composite: 36.57/100
• National rank: #4635
• State rank: #486 of 590 in NY

Livability — Hudson Falls

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #481
• US rank: #8482

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime D Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 13,618

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,576 people
• By 2030: 57,618 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 52,751 · -11.5%
• By 2050: 47,514 · -20.2%
• By 2075: 35,690 · -40.1%
• By 2100: 24,807 · -58.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Slovak 5% Estonian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.2) · D 39.4% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.0pp toward R · 2008: 0.8pp · 2024: -21.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.2 2020: R+15.6 2016: R+20.2 2012: D+1.6 2008: D+0.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 25.92%
• Current HPI: 331.6315
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+25.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Relisted — Global MLS
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $99,900 Global MLS
• 2025-09-29 Pending — Global MLS
• 2025-09-12 Listed $79,900 Global MLS

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,232 · +13.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.