812 15th St · Orange, TX 77630

$60,000

2 bd · 0.5 ba · 1,164 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1925 Est $78k · 23% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits with this older 2- bedroom home featuring a versatile bonus room that could easily serve as a third bedroom, office, playroom, or flex space. Conveniently located close to town, this property offers easy access to shopping, dining, schools, and everyday amenities. With solid potential and plenty of character, it's ready for an investor or handy buyer to bring their vision and creativity to life. Whether you're looking for your next rental property, flip project, or a home to personalize and make your own, this property offers a great chance to add value and create something special. Come see the possibilities this home has to offer!

Key facts

• Close to town
• Bonus room
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• BONUS ROOM
• CLOSE TO TOWN
• EASY ACCESS TO SHOPPING
• EASY ACCESS TO DINING
• EASY ACCESS TO SCHOOLS
• EASY ACCESS TO AMENITIES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Residential single-family home; Located in the Sheldon subdivision
• Exterior features: Metal roof; Public-maintained road access

Interior

• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Ceiling fan(s); Window unit(s)
• Interior features: Laminate flooring; Ceiling fans; Window air conditioning units

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/0.5-bath single-family listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $448 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $59k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.6% vs local median 3.8% in Orange — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#286 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D+, schools D-.
• West Orange-Cove CISD (suburban): math 17% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #784 of 826 in TX (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.7%/yr); 339 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 235 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($415 loan paydown + $606 appreciation (1.0% local appreciation)).
• Orange County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (1.0% appreciation + 5.7% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($59k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $59,100 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.73%
• DSCR: 2.63
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $77,988
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
909 W Curtis Ave	0.51mi	2/1.5	1,224 (+5%)	5mo	$105,000	$86	59
4 Childers Dr	0.71mi	2/1.0	1,127 (-3%)	5mo	$75,000	$67	55
906 6th St	0.62mi	2/1.0	1,074 (-8%)	9mo	$25,000	$23	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.01% appreciation · 5.71% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.98×
• Total profit: $33,208
• Equity at exit: $20,514

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.49×
• Total profit: $92,267
• Equity at exit: $27,285

Cash invested: $16,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77630

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Rents YoY: 5.7%
• Active inventory: 339
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,232 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$315
• Tax from tax record: −$120 /mo · $1,435/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $448

Break-even live

Break-even rent $665

Max offer price $60,000

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $482	-5% $465	+0% $448	+5% $431	+10% $414
Rent	-10% $350	-5% $399	+0% $448	+5% $496	+10% $545
Rate	-1.0pp $478	-0.5pp $463	base $448	+0.5pp $432	+1.0pp $416

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,000
• Closing costs: $1,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1604 W Cherry Ave Orange, TX	1.0	1.0	850	$1,240	$1.46	44d	1	0.02mi
1010 N 16th St Orange, TX	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,500	$1.36	44d	1	0.15mi
1500 Link Ave Orange, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	1082	$1,050	$0.97	14d	1	0.64mi
605 4th St Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	800	$800	$1.00	14d	1	0.76mi
605 N 4th St Unit A Orange, TX	2.0	1.0	860	$900	$1.05	14d	1	0.76mi
210 Florence St Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1064	$1,425	$1.34	44d	1	0.79mi
206 Florence St Orange, TX	2.0	1.0	1216	$1,425	$1.17	44d	1	0.80mi
406 Dayton St West Orange, TX	2.0	1.0	1350	$1,200	$0.89	44d	1	0.83mi
205 Gloria St West Orange, TX	3.0	2.0	1225	$1,300	$1.06	44d	1	0.89mi
1120 28th St Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1308	$1,500	$1.15	44d	1	0.97mi
310 S Farragut Ave Orange, TX	2.0	1.0	725	$1,150	$1.59	44d	1	1.05mi
3000 MacArthur Dr Orange, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	791	$1,142	$1.44	14d	12	1.07mi
2318 Pacific St Orange, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$800	$1.00	14d	1	1.09mi
9 W Eads Ave Orange, TX	3.0	2.0	1255	$1,400	$1.12	44d	1	1.14mi
1030 Clairmont Dr Orange, TX	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,850	$1.35	22d	1	1.21mi
2208 Monterrey Dr Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1132	$1,200	$1.06	44d	1	1.24mi
2801 W Sunset Dr Orange, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1113	$1,088	$0.98	14d	27	1.25mi
2309 7th St Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1036	$995	$0.96	14d	1	1.28mi
206 W Dewey Ave Orange, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$777	$0.97	44d	1	1.29mi
7b Concord St Orange, TX	2.0	1.5	1206	$1,450	$1.20	14d	1	1.31mi
101 Azalea Ave Unit A Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1200	$2,000	$1.67	44d	1	1.31mi
1019 Ruby Ln Orange, TX	2.0	1.0	1243	$1,100	$0.88	14d	1	1.32mi
1885 E Farragut Ave Orange, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1023	$924	$0.90	14d	9	1.32mi
2511 N 8th St Unit Left Orange, TX	2.0	1.0	750	$900	$1.20	14d	1	1.40mi
302 Bridal Wreath Ave Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1182	$1,195	$1.01	44d	1	1.41mi
403 Bluebonnet Dr Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1196	$1,300	$1.09	44d	1	1.45mi
3333 Ridgemont Dr Unit 310 Orange, TX	1.0	1.0	726	$938	$1.29	14d	1	1.47mi
3333 Ridgemont Dr Unit 504 Orange, TX	1.0	1.0	725	$963	$1.33	14d	1	1.47mi
3333 Ridgemont Dr Unit 512 Orange, TX	1.0	1.0	725	$1,063	$1.47	14d	1	1.47mi
3333 Ridgemont Dr Unit 505 Orange, TX	1.0	1.0	725	$988	$1.36	14d	1	1.47mi
3333 Ridgemont Dr Unit 203 Orange, TX	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,084	$1.08	14d	1	1.47mi
3333 Ridgemont Dr Unit 007 Orange, TX	1.0	1.0	725	$1,088	$1.50	44d	1	1.48mi
3333 Ridgemont Dr Unit 404 Orange, TX	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,254	$1.25	44d	1	1.48mi
3333 Ridgemont Dr Unit 006 Orange, TX	1.0	1.0	725	$1,063	$1.47	44d	1	1.48mi
3333 Ridgemont Dr Unit 506 Orange, TX	1.0	1.0	725	$963	$1.33	44d	1	1.48mi
3333 Ridgemont Dr Unit 302 Orange, TX	1.0	1.0	726	$938	$1.29	44d	1	1.48mi
3333 Ridgemont Dr Unit 315TWNHME Orange, TX	2.0	1.5	1216	$1,040	$0.86	22d	1	1.48mi
3333 Ridgemont Dr Unit 107 Orange, TX	2.0	1.0	952	$1,255	$1.32	44d	1	1.48mi
3333 Ridgemont Dr Apt 105 Orange, TX	2.0	1.0	952	$1,255	$1.32	22d	1	1.48mi
3333 Ridgemont Dr Unit 408 Orange, TX	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,059	$1.06	44d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $60,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $60,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $60,000 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $60,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $60,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $60,000 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $60,000 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $60,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $60,000 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $60,000 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $60,000 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $60,000 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $60,000 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $60,000 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $60,000 Active 2 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    remarks 659-char remark
17. 2026-05-30
    listed $60,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,435 · $120/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,435 · $120/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 93% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,787
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,361
• − Property taxes: −$1,435
• − Insurance: −$1,098
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,183
• − Management: −$1,183
• − Depreciation: −$1,745
• Taxable income: $4,782
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,148
• After-tax cash flow: $4,226/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Orange-Cove CISD
• NCES district ID: 4845090
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $37,329
• Composite: 15.86/100
• National rank: #9260
• State rank: #784 of 826 in TX

Livability — Orange

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #286
• US rank: #6456

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Orange, TX
• County: Orange County · 87,112 people
• City population: 22,976
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,983
• Household income: $64,373
• Rent vs Own: 32.2% rent · 67.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1018.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,065 people
• By 2030: 89,591 · +1.7%
• By 2040: 91,982 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 93,023 · +5.6%
• By 2075: 94,871 · +7.7%
• By 2100: 88,155 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 13% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.8) · D 16.4% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.6pp toward R · 2008: -47.1pp · 2024: -66.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.8 2020: R+63.4 2016: R+61.9 2012: R+54.3 2008: R+47.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.01%
• Current HPI: 264.14
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.71%
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $60,000 BBOR

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,435 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.