14230 Elrington Hollow Trl · Fresno, TX 77583

$289,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,466 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 90 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 7,305 sqft lot 2-car garage $198/sqft · at area comps Est $301k · at est. $75/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.1/15.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming and meticulously maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom house nested near Missouri City. As you step inside, you’ll be captivated by the open concept living room bathed in abundant natural light. This like-new home boasts luxurious vinyl wood flooring throughout. The neutral paint is fresh and inviting, complemented by all-blind windows. A standout feature is the Samsung Bespoke Refrigerator and the whole-house water softener system which will stay with the house. The spacious family room seamlessly transitions into the dream kitchen & dining area, both adorned with beautiful contemporary dining light fixture.

Key facts

• Covered patio
• Expansive backyard
• 7,305 sq ft lot

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING ROOM
• SAMSUNG BESPOKE REFRIGERATOR
• COVERED PATIO
• EXPANSIVE BACKYARD
• EASY ACCESS TO COSTCO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-288 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $239k (17.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (15.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $239k (17.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#943 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Heritage Rose El (math 29% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 1,209 students, 83% FRL); Billy Baines Middle (math 47% / reading 53%, grade C, #347 of 1,662 statewide, top 21%, 1,296 students, 37% FRL); Fort Bend Co Alter (26 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 40% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1445 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask is 13709% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $239,158 (17.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.25%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $300,843
• List price: $289,990
• Delta: -3.61%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14242 Amherst Meadow Trl	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,614 (+10%)	1mo	$299,000	$185	72
5050 Hurston Park Trl	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,450 (-1%)	10mo	$304,000	$210	67
14426 Boyton Hollow Trce	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,450 (-1%)	20mo	$280,000	$193	65
5135 Dunstable Manor Ln	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,513 (+3%)	13mo	$280,000	$185	65
14519 Woodcott Warren Way	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,335 (-9%)	16mo	$265,000	$199	53
5130 Victory Shores Ln	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,628 (+11%)	15mo	$290,000	$178	52
5002 Hurston Park Trl	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,311 (-11%)	14mo	$262,000	$200	52
4523 Rose Ln	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,293 (-12%)	5mo	$259,000	$200	52
5207 James Michael Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,516 (+3%)	11mo	$269,890	$178	51
14506 Broadbury Pond Rd	0.49mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,285 (-12%)	2mo	$234,900	$183	50
5003 Stratton Ln	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,670 (+14%)	13mo	$299,900	$180	50
946 Luke Darrell Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,337 (-9%)	4mo	$244,000	$182	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-71,322
• Equity at exit: $43,238

10-year hold

• IRR: -37.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.34×
• Total profit: $-109,081
• Equity at exit: $25,073

Cash invested: $81,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 6 active · 6 under contract
• Months of supply: 3.3 mo (31%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $284,750 ($176/sqft)
• Median days on market: 54 d
• This list price: 67% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +16.8% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77583

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1445
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,461 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax from tax record: −$515 /mo · $6,185/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$517
• Net cashflow: $-288

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,825

Max offer price $239,158

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-124	-5% $-206	+0% $-288	+5% $-370	+10% $-452
Rent	-10% $-482	-5% $-385	+0% $-288	+5% $-191	+10% $-93
Rate	-1.0pp $-142	-0.5pp $-214	base $-288	+0.5pp $-363	+1.0pp $-439

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,498
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5203 James Michael Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	3.0	1721	$2,400	$1.39	21d	1	0.76mi
5522 Briana Dee Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1370	$2,100	$1.53	93d	1	1.07mi
919 Yorkshire Holw Fresno, TX	3.0	2.0	1506	$2,100	$1.39	93d	1	1.31mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Municipal Utility District disclosureSeller disclosure
• HOA & community: Lakes of Savannah/Goodwin homeowners associationAnnual association fee: $900

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyOne-storyEntry level: First floor
• Construction: Built in 2022Brick and cement siding exteriorComposition roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalGas rangeMicrowave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (First floor, 14 x 13)Bedroom (First floor, 11 x 10)Bedroom (First floor, 11 x 10)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (Gas)Central air (Electric)
• Interior features: Granite countersCeiling fan(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

HOA detail $75/mo · $900/yr

• Likely covers: water

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-07-01
   days on market $289,990 Active 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-30
   days on market $289,990 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-29
   days on market $289,990 Active 88 DOM
4. 2026-06-28
   days on market $289,990 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-06-27
   days on market $289,990 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-06-26
   days on market $289,990 Active 85 DOM
7. 2026-06-24
   days on market $289,990 Active 83 DOM
8. 2026-06-22
   days on market $289,990 Active 81 DOM
9. 2026-06-21
   days on market $289,990 Active 80 DOM
10. 2026-06-18
    days on market $289,990 Active 77 DOM
11. 2026-06-17
    days on market $289,990 Active 76 DOM
12. 2026-06-16
    days on market $289,990 Active 75 DOM
13. 2026-06-15
    days on market $289,990 Active 74 DOM
14. 2026-06-13
    days on market $289,990 Active 72 DOM
15. 2026-06-09
    days on market $289,990 Active 68 DOM
16. 2026-06-07
    days on market $289,990 Active 66 DOM
17. 2026-06-04
    days on market $289,990 Active 63 DOM
18. 2026-06-03
    days on market $289,990 Active 62 DOM
19. 2026-06-02
    days on market $289,990 Active 61 DOM
20. 2026-06-01
    days on market $289,990 Active 60 DOM
21. 2026-05-31
    days on market $289,990 Active 59 DOM
22. 2026-05-08
    listed $2,100
23. 2026-04-02
    historical
24. 2026-04-02
    listed $289,990 Active 983-char remark
25. 2026-02-03
    listed $299,990 Active
26. 2026-02-03
    historical
27. 2025-12-30
    listed $299,999 Active
28. 2022-07-26
    soldstatus Sold
29. 2022-06-15
    status Pending
30. 2022-06-02
    listed $325,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,185 · $515/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,185 · $515/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,532
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,244
• − Property taxes: −$6,185
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,363
• − Management: −$2,363
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable loss: −$8,407
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,018
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,435/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This well-maintained single-family home features modern appliances, vinyl wood flooring, and a whole-house water softener system. It is ready for immediate occupancy and offers a good return on investment.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping improves curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Whole-house water softener system — Stays with the house and provides water quality benefits ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 34/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Walter Moses Burton El F TX #3,583/4,322 Nat'l #33,738/41,679 Middle Billy Baines Middle C TX #347/1,662 Nat'l #3,460/14,009 High Hightower H S F TX #1,002/1,632 Nat'l #10,121/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Fresno

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #943
• US rank: #16815

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fresno, TX
• County: Brazoria County · 1,004,526 people
• City population: 26,236
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,747
• Household income: $119,287
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own

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Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.19%
• Current HPI: 198.6559
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Municipal Utility District disclosureSeller disclosure
• HOA & community: Lakes of Savannah/Goodwin homeowners associationAnnual association fee: $900

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyOne-storyEntry level: First floor
• Construction: Built in 2022Brick and cement siding exteriorComposition roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalGas rangeMicrowave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (First floor, 14 x 13)Bedroom (First floor, 11 x 10)Bedroom (First floor, 11 x 10)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (Gas)Central air (Electric)
• Interior features: Granite countersCeiling fan(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

Price history

-99.4% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-07-01 Rental Removed $2,100 HARMLS
• 2026-07-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed for Rent $2,100 HARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $289,990 HARMLS
• 2026-02-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-03 Listed $299,990 HARMLS
• 2025-12-30 Listed $299,999 HARMLS
• 2022-07-26 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-06-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-06-02 Listed $325,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

-5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,185 · -9.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.