4976 Nevada 36 Nevada 36 · Willisville, AR 71858

$105,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,698 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1925 3.00 ac lot ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.5/30.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks

The ‘South Rosston Home Site Tract’ (#03019-004077), which is 4976 Nevada 36, Rosston, AR, is a ±3-acre home site with a historical home. The house has three bedrooms, 2-½ baths, and is approximately 1,920 square feet. There is also a 26’x26’ detached garage! This property is part of a larger 99-acre tract of land all of which is for sale! See CARMLS #25022665.

Key facts

• 99 acre tract
• Historical home
• 3 acre home site

Tags

• HISTORICAL HOME
• 3 ACRE HOME SITE
• 99 ACRE TRACT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $246 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $103k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#403 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: employment D+, health & safety D, schools F.
• Nevada School District (rural): math 17% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #217 of 238 in AR (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($726 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Nevada County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $103,425 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.05%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.96×
• Total profit: $28,300
• Equity at exit: $47,213

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.68×
• Total profit: $78,755
• Equity at exit: $72,760

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71858

• Active inventory: 10
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,141 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$61 /mo · $729/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$240
• Net cashflow: $246

Break-even live

Break-even rent $829

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $306	-5% $276	+0% $246	+5% $216	+10% $187
Rent	-10% $156	-5% $201	+0% $246	+5% $291	+10% $336
Rate	-1.0pp $299	-0.5pp $273	base $246	+0.5pp $219	+1.0pp $191

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-01-01
   historical
2. 2025-10-01
   status Under Contract
3. 2025-09-16
   price $449,000
4. 2025-09-09
   listed $105,000 New Listing
5. 2025-06-05
   listed $465,000 New Listing

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $729 · $61/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $729 · $61/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,690
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$729
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,095
• − Management: −$1,095
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $1,310
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$314
• After-tax cash flow: $2,639/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nevada School District
• NCES district ID: 0500030
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $35,448
• Composite: 15.68/100
• National rank: #9283
• State rank: #217 of 238 in AR

Livability — Willisville

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #403
• US rank: #23302

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A- Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,686

Population outlook (Nevada County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,890 people
• By 2030: 7,473 · -5.3%
• By 2040: 6,681 · -15.3%
• By 2050: 6,034 · -23.5%
• By 2075: 5,068 · -35.8%
• By 2100: 4,689 · -40.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 38% Two or more races 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Nevada

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.7) · D 29.2% · R 68.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.5pp toward R · 2008: -16.2pp · 2024: -39.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.7 2020: R+31.5 2016: R+26.1 2012: R+20.1 2008: R+16.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

-3.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-01 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2025-10-01 Pending — CARMLS
• 2025-09-16 Price Changed $449,000 CARMLS
• 2025-09-09 Listed $105,000 CARMLS
• 2025-06-05 Listed $465,000 CARMLS

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $729 · +9.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.