The 1651 Plan · Waco, TX 76655

$308,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,654 sqft · SingleFamily · 103 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Some images shown may be from a previously built Stylecraft home of similar design. Actual options, colors, and selections may vary. Contact us for details! This four-bedroom, two bath home is a great option for those looking for more bedrooms without a second story! You won't believe your eyes as you walk into the great space that is the open concept living room, dining room, and kitchen. With all of its wonderful features, to include walk-in closets, granite countertops, and corner kitchen with island, you are sure to love this home!

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 103 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price: $326,900

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Utilities: Electric heating and power; Central air for cooling
• Home design: The 1651 plan; New construction (plan)
• Construction: Living area approximately 1,654 square feet
• Exterior features: Located at 11101 Pallasite Dr, Lorena, TX 76655

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Plan model home (The 1651)

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $309k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-10 ($-121/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $307k (0.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $269k (12.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $269k (12.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.9% in Waco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#166 in TX, #4,378 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, commute F, employment D-.
• Midway ISD (other): math 61% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #56 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Castleman Creek El (math 48% / reading 47%, grade D, #989 of 4,322 statewide, top 23%, 585 students, 51% FRL); Midway Middle (math 58% / reading 58%, grade B, #197 of 1,662 statewide, top 12%, 1,075 students, 47% FRL); Midway H S (math 66% / reading 67%, grade B, #186 of 1,632 statewide, top 11%, 2,648 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools average 43% FRL vs 28% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 269 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($100k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $268,940 (12.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.14%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-50,659
• Equity at exit: $46,058

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-44,777
• Equity at exit: $26,708

Cash invested: $86,492 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76655

• Home prices YoY: -31.3%
• Active inventory: 269
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,689 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,620
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$386 /mo · $4,634/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$565
• Net cashflow: $-10

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,702

Max offer price $307,437

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $203	-5% $97	+0% $-10	+5% $-117	+10% $-224
Rent	-10% $-223	-5% $-116	+0% $-10	+5% $96	+10% $202
Rate	-1.0pp $145	-0.5pp $68	base $-10	+0.5pp $-90	+1.0pp $-172

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,225
• Closing costs: $9,267
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3217 Jackal Dr Lorena, TX	4.0	2.0	1840	$2,400	$1.30	23d	1	0.20mi
3225 Marston Rd Lorena, TX	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,800	$1.51	45d	1	0.56mi
2813 Gilchrist Dr Lorena, TX	3.0	2.0	1529	$2,200	$1.44	45d	1	0.60mi
2809 Keathley Dr Lorena, TX	3.0	2.0	1565	$2,100	$1.34	45d	1	0.63mi
3128 Brosnan Rd Lorena, TX	3.0	2.0	1717	$2,350	$1.37	45d	1	0.64mi
2701 Skinner Dr Lorena, TX	3.0	2.0	1573	$2,400	$1.53	45d	1	0.70mi
3117 Sherco Rd Lorena, TX	3.0	2.0	1469	$2,000	$1.36	45d	1	0.72mi
10312 Sierra West Dr Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1560	$2,300	$1.47	23d	1	0.81mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $308,900 Active 103 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $308,900 Active 102 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $308,900 Active 100 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $308,900 Active 99 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $308,900 Active 98 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $308,900 Active 97 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $308,900 Active 96 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $308,900 Active 95 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $308,900 Active 94 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $308,900 Active 91 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $308,900 Active 90 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $308,900 Active 89 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $308,900 Active 88 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    price $308,900 Active 85 DOM
15. 2026-06-03
    days on market $326,900 Active 85 DOM
16. 2026-06-02
    days on market $326,900 Active 84 DOM
17. 2026-06-01
    days on market $326,900 Active 83 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    remarks 541-char remark
19. 2026-05-31
    listed $326,900 Active 82 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,273
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,303
• − Property taxes: −$4,634
• − Insurance: −$1,544
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,582
• − Management: −$2,582
• − Depreciation: −$8,986
• Taxable loss: −$5,358
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,286
• After-tax cash flow: $1,165/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midway ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830640
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $67,076
• Composite: 52.32/100
• National rank: #1593
• State rank: #56 of 826 in TX

Livability — Waco

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #166
• US rank: #4378

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waco, TX
• County: McLennan County · 213,088 people
• City population: 125,319
• Metro: Waco, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,603
• Household income: $99,917
• Rent vs Own: 14.9% rent · 85.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 62.0

Population outlook (McLennan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 264,191 people
• By 2030: 273,578 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 291,506 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 308,044 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 349,648 · +32.3%
• By 2100: 364,779 · +38.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 12% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · McLennan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 34.0% · R 64.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.9pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+23.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.10%
• Current HPI: 230.4333
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Waco, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B