706 W 5th St · Hearne, TX 77859

$107,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,911 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 125 Days on market

Built 1967 4,268 sqft lot $56/sqft · 29% below area Est $150k · 29% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming blue home in Hearne is nestled on a peaceful street surrounded by lush greenery. Welcoming porch, it offers a serene atmosphere inside, you'll find cozy living spaces filled with natural light.

Key facts

• Natural light
• Lush greenery
• Cozy living spaces

Tags

• PEACEFUL STREET
• LUSH GREENERY
• WELCOMING PORCH
• COZY LIVING SPACES
• NATURAL LIGHT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $107k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $332 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $107k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 4.6% in Hearne — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#611 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, employment F, health & safety F.
• Hearne ISD (town): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #816 of 826 in TX (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 88% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hearne El (math 12% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,974 of 4,322 statewide, top 92%, 408 students, 94% FRL, charter); Hearne J H (math 8% / reading 12%, charter); Hearne Jh/Hs (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,552 of 1,632 statewide, top 95%, 343 students, 96% FRL).
• Market conditions: 93 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 23 units permitted in Robertson County in 2023 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($740 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $30k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 125 days — a 12% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $94,160 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 125 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.31%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $149,808
• List price: $107,000
• Delta: -28.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
507 W Hall St	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,760 (-8%)	15mo	$175,000	$99	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.65×
• Total profit: $79,540
• Equity at exit: $96,394

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.4%
• Equity multiple: 8.27×
• Total profit: $217,764
• Equity at exit: $207,877

Cash invested: $29,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77859

• Home prices YoY: 11.2%
• Active inventory: 93
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$561
• Tax from tax record: −$247 /mo · $2,962/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $332

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,079

Max offer price $107,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $393	-5% $363	+0% $332	+5% $302	+10% $272
Rent	-10% $214	-5% $273	+0% $332	+5% $392	+10% $451
Rate	-1.0pp $386	-0.5pp $360	base $332	+0.5pp $305	+1.0pp $276

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,750
• Closing costs: $3,210
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
401 E 3rd St Hearne, TX	4.0	3.0	1338	$1,500	$1.12	23d	1	0.67mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $107,000 Active 125 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $107,000 Active 122 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $107,000 Active 121 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $107,000 Active 120 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $107,000 Active 119 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $107,000 Active 117 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $107,000 Active 116 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $107,000 Active 114 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $107,000 Active 113 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $107,000 Active 112 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $107,000 Active 111 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $107,000 Active 108 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $107,000 Active 106 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $107,000 Active 105 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $107,000 Active 104 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $107,000 Active 103 DOM
17. 2026-02-16
    listed $109,000 Active 202-char remark

    Show marketing remark (202 chars)

    Charming blue home in Hearne is nestled on a peaceful street surrounded by lush greenery. Welcoming porch, it offers a serene atmosphere inside, you'll find cozy living spaces filled with natural light.

18. 2025-04-30
    listed $122,000 Active
19. 2021-03-17
    soldstatus
20. 2021-03-15
    soldstatus Sold
21. 2021-03-15
    soldstatus
22. 2021-03-04
    status Pending
23. 2021-02-24
    historical
24. 2021-02-03
    listed $65,000
25. 2021-02-03
    listed $65,000
26. 2014-10-06
    soldstatus
27. 2014-07-31
    soldstatus
28. 2010-11-10
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,962 · $247/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,962 · $247/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,994
• − Property taxes: −$2,962
• − Insurance: −$535
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,440
• − Management: −$1,440
• − Depreciation: −$3,113
• Taxable income: $2,516
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$604
• After-tax cash flow: $3,385/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hearne ISD
• NCES district ID: 4822830
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,858
• Composite: 12.13/100
• National rank: #9655
• State rank: #816 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hearne

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #611
• US rank: #11586

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hearne, TX
• Population (ZIP): 7,516

Population outlook (Robertson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,926 people
• By 2030: 17,039 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 17,217 · +1.7%
• By 2050: 17,301 · +2.2%
• By 2075: 17,849 · +5.5%
• By 2100: 17,642 · +4.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 30% Black 29% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 18% Arabic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Robertson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.1) · D 23.6% · R 75.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.7pp toward R · 2008: -19.4pp · 2024: -52.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.1 2020: R+40.4 2016: R+35.1 2012: R+22.3 2008: R+19.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.97%
• Current HPI: 177.7117
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+67.7% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-16 Listed $109,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-04-30 Listed $122,000 BCSRMLS
• 2021-03-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-03-15 Sold (MLS) — BCSRMLS
• 2021-03-15 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-03-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-02-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2021-02-03 Listed $65,000 BCSRMLS
• 2021-02-03 Listed $65,000 HARMLS
• 2014-10-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-07-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2010-11-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+10.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,962 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.