2021 Lake Trail Dr · Heartland, TX 75126

$114,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,520 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 2007 7,884 sqft lot $46/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 45% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A warm WELCOME HOME awaits you with this well maintained single owner home. Open concept features recently updated luxury vinyl plank flooring which flows flawlessly throughout the entire home. The kitchen & dining room overlook an inviting backyard with pergola covered patio, additional trees for privacy, & small gated run for your 4-legged family members or playset area. HVAC replaced 4 years ago. Multiple Offers Received. Submit Highest & Best by 8:00 AM, Tuesday, Jan. 26.

Key facts

• 7,884 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2007

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $656 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $111k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.1% vs local median 4.6% in Heartland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Crandall ISD (rural): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #351 of 826 in TX (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Barbara Walker El (math 35% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,946 of 4,322 statewide, top 45%, 663 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 41% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2179 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $794 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.4% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($111k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $111,453 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.90% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.45%
• DSCR: 2.09
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $249,280
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2021 Lake Trail Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,520 (0%)	0mo	$114,900	$76	100
2008 Pine Knot Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,521 (+0%)	1mo	$224,999	$148	88
2007 Pine Knot Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,475 (-3%)	1mo	$239,900	$163	82
2014 Moonlight Trl	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,650 (+9%)	1mo	$235,000	$142	81
3105 Cassinia Pkwy	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,554 (+2%)	0mo	$245,000	$158	80
2002 Bayberry Ct	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,432 (-6%)	1mo	$247,000	$172	72
3402 Pumice Ct	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,442 (-5%)	1mo	$249,900	$173	64
4011 Springfield Ln	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-4%)	1mo	$255,000	$175	62
2911 Firewheel St	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,672 (+10%)	1mo	$275,000	$164	62
2005 Peony St	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-8%)	1mo	$235,000	$167	62
3010 Rosemount Ln	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,393 (-8%)	1mo	$249,900	$179	62
2906 Rosemount Ln	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,674 (+10%)	0mo	$265,000	$158	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $19,913
• Equity at exit: $17,132

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.81×
• Total profit: $58,320
• Equity at exit: $9,934

Cash invested: $32,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 2179
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,188 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$377 /mo · $4,520/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$46
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $656

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,358

Max offer price $114,900

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,725
• Closing costs: $3,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 36 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2048 Lake Trail Dr Heartland, TX	3.0	2.0	1908	$2,250	$1.18	3d	1	0.16mi
2048 Lake Trail Dr Heartland, TX	3.0	2.0	1900	$2,300	$1.21	1d	1	0.16mi
2040 Shawnee Trl Heartland, TX	4.0	2.0	1836	$2,000	$1.09	15d	1	0.36mi
2038 Allyson Dr Heartland, TX	3.0	2.0	1496	$1,900	$1.27	44d	1	0.41mi
4009 Freedom St Heartland, TX	3.0	2.0	1419	$1,800	$1.27	44d	1	0.43mi
4121 Gaillardia Way Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2135	$2,250	$1.05	19d	1	0.46mi
2015 Angel Way Heartland, TX	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,671	$1.19	22d	1	0.50mi
2035 Karsen Ln Heartland, TX	4.0	2.0	1587	$2,125	$1.34	1d	1	0.52mi
3012 Glazner Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	1984	$2,195	$1.11	4d	1	0.56mi
4032 Eagle Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,775	$1.22	4d	1	0.59mi
3001 Glazner Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1510	$2,350	$1.56	44d	1	0.60mi
3941 Hometown Blvd Unit 3941 Crandall, TX	3.0	2.5	1736	$2,400	$1.38	44d	1	0.68mi
3324 Perman Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	1724	$2,125	$1.23	13d	1	0.70mi
4002 Bighorn Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1365	$2,120	$1.55	2d	1	0.70mi
3137 Grimaldo Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1585	$2,195	$1.38	24d	1	0.75mi
3137 Grimaldo Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1565	$1,995	$1.27	13d	1	0.75mi
1968 Marble Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	2051	$2,350	$1.15	15d	1	0.76mi
4001 Fairmont Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1545	$2,000	$1.29	44d	1	0.80mi
2919 Cascade Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$2,200	$1.49	44d	1	0.93mi
3004 Dakota Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1938	$2,300	$1.19	4d	1	1.03mi
2850 Dusty Rd Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2115	$2,450	$1.16	20d	1	1.16mi
2826 Hudson Dr Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1639	$2,400	$1.46	6d	1	1.17mi
1450 Arabella Ave Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1636	$2,250	$1.38	13d	1	1.27mi
2409 Fleming Dr Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,845	$1.11	24d	1	1.29mi
2237 Mustang Ghost Trl Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1952	$2,040	$1.05	44d	1	1.29mi
3028 Willow Wood Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.5	1764	$2,600	$1.47	44d	1	1.30mi
2746 Bronte Blvd Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	24d	1	1.32mi
2521 Flight Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	24d	1	1.33mi
2745 Bronte Blvd Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,845	$1.11	24d	1	1.33mi
2739 Bronte Blvd Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	24d	1	1.35mi
2510 Flight Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,845	$1.11	24d	1	1.36mi
2513 Flight Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	24d	1	1.36mi
1789 Courage Crk Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,739	$1.04	3d	1	1.41mi
1799 Courage Crk Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,800	$1.43	44d	1	1.43mi
3147 Blossom Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	3.0	2177	$2,700	$1.24	44d	1	1.44mi
2624 Bartlett St Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	24d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $46 · $552/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-03-26
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-17
   listed $114,900 Active
3. 2021-04-19
   soldstatus
4. 2021-04-12
   soldstatus Sold 498-char remark

   Show marketing remark (498 chars)

   A warm WELCOME HOME awaits you with this well maintained single owner home. Open concept features recently updated luxury vinyl plank flooring which flows flawlessly throughout the entire home. The kitchen & dining room overlook an inviting backyard with pergola covered patio, additional trees for privacy, & small gated run for your 4-legged family members or playset area. HVAC replaced 4 years ago. Multiple Offers Received. Submit Highest & Best by 8:00 AM, Tuesday, Jan. 26.

5. 2021-01-31
   status Pending 498-char remark

   Show marketing remark (498 chars)

   A warm WELCOME HOME awaits you with this well maintained single owner home. Open concept features recently updated luxury vinyl plank flooring which flows flawlessly throughout the entire home. The kitchen & dining room overlook an inviting backyard with pergola covered patio, additional trees for privacy, & small gated run for your 4-legged family members or playset area. HVAC replaced 4 years ago. Multiple Offers Received. Submit Highest & Best by 8:00 AM, Tuesday, Jan. 26.

6. 2021-01-27
   historical Active Option Contract 498-char remark

   Show marketing remark (498 chars)

   A warm WELCOME HOME awaits you with this well maintained single owner home. Open concept features recently updated luxury vinyl plank flooring which flows flawlessly throughout the entire home. The kitchen & dining room overlook an inviting backyard with pergola covered patio, additional trees for privacy, & small gated run for your 4-legged family members or playset area. HVAC replaced 4 years ago. Multiple Offers Received. Submit Highest & Best by 8:00 AM, Tuesday, Jan. 26.

7. 2021-01-22
   listed $209,900 Active 498-char remark

   Show marketing remark (498 chars)

   A warm WELCOME HOME awaits you with this well maintained single owner home. Open concept features recently updated luxury vinyl plank flooring which flows flawlessly throughout the entire home. The kitchen & dining room overlook an inviting backyard with pergola covered patio, additional trees for privacy, & small gated run for your 4-legged family members or playset area. HVAC replaced 4 years ago. Multiple Offers Received. Submit Highest & Best by 8:00 AM, Tuesday, Jan. 26.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,520 · $377/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,520 · $377/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,258
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,436
• − Property taxes: −$4,520
• − Insurance: −$574
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,101
• − Management: −$2,101
• − HOA: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$3,343
• Taxable income: $6,631
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,592
• After-tax cash flow: $6,275/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crandall ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815510
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $70,076
• Composite: 35.57/100
• National rank: #4901
• State rank: #351 of 826 in TX

Livability — Heartland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Heartland, TX
• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1306.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-45.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-02-17 Listed $114,900 NTREIS
• 2021-04-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-04-12 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2021-01-31 Pending — NTREIS
• 2021-01-27 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2021-01-22 Listed $209,900 NTREIS

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,520 · -39.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.