4105 Arbor Dr · Texarkana, TX 75503

$155,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,053 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

0.25 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

AFFORDABLE Pleasant Grove ISD!! Come check out this 3 Bedroom 2 Bath 2 Car Garage conveniently located close to schools, shopping, entertainment, medical, etc. Vinyl Plank installed 2015. New roof 2016. New windows installed 2017. Spacious fenced back yard w/ covered patio! Put this one on your list to see today!

Key facts

• Newly built fence
• Above ground pool
• Backyard oasis

Tags

• BACKYARD OASIS
• COVERED PORCH TV
• ABOVE GROUND POOL
• NEWLY BUILT FENCE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2 covered spaces; 2-car garage facing front
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; One story
• Construction: Brick construction; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio and porch; Patio; Porch; Privacy fencing; Above-ground private pool; Shingle roof; Concrete/paved road frontage on a city street; Lot approximately 0.25 acre

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Oven
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Breakfast bar
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $156k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $116 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (0.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $155k (0.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 4.3% in Texarkana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#93 in TX, #3,241 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D+, schools D, crime D.
• Pleasant Grove ISD (urban): math 63% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #30 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 298 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 137 units permitted in Bowie County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,029 (0.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.20%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-17,752
• Equity at exit: $23,186

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-5,748
• Equity at exit: $13,445

Cash invested: $43,540 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75503

• Home prices YoY: -21.0%
• Active inventory: 298
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,550 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$815
• Tax from tax record: −$228 /mo · $2,739/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $116

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,403

Max offer price $155,500

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $204	-5% $160	+0% $116	+5% $72	+10% $28
Rent	-10% $-6	-5% $55	+0% $116	+5% $177	+10% $239
Rate	-1.0pp $195	-0.5pp $156	base $116	+0.5pp $76	+1.0pp $35

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,875
• Closing costs: $4,665
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3478 Brooke Pl Unit 3427 Texarkana, TX	3.0	2.5	1440	$1,600	$1.11	44d	1	0.30mi
3515 Arista Blvd Texarkana, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1130	$1,600	$1.42	44d	27	0.52mi
313-315 Brookwood Dr Unit 315 Texarkana, TX	2.0	1.5	1173	$1,095	$0.93	44d	1	1.07mi
315 Brookwood Dr Texarkana, TX	2.0	1.5	1173	$1,095	$0.93	44d	1	1.07mi
5911 Richmond Rd Texarkana, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1049	$2,000	$1.91	44d	14	1.13mi
3113 Clear Creek Dr Texarkana, TX	2.0	2.0	1015	$1,050	$1.03	44d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $155,500 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,500 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,500 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,500 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,500 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $155,500 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,500 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $155,500 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,500 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $155,500 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $155,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,739 · $228/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,846 · $237/mo
• Expected delta: +$106/yr (+$9/mo · 3.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,603
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,710
• − Property taxes: −$2,739
• − Insurance: −$778
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,488
• − Management: −$1,488
• − Depreciation: −$4,524
• Taxable loss: −$1,124
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$270
• After-tax cash flow: $1,664/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pleasant Grove ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835130
• Math proficiency: 63% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $69,316
• Composite: 56.24/100
• National rank: #1175
• State rank: #30 of 826 in TX

Livability — Texarkana

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #93
• US rank: #3241

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute C Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Texarkana, TX
• County: Bowie County · 61,238 people
• City population: 61,238
• Metro: Texarkana, TX-AR
• Population (ZIP): 26,372
• Household income: $72,159
• Rent vs Own: 38.0% rent · 62.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 773.0

Population outlook (Bowie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,699 people
• By 2030: 94,824 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 94,870 · +0.2%
• By 2050: 93,686 · -1.1%
• By 2075: 90,082 · -4.9%
• By 2100: 76,579 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Black 23% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bowie

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.7) · D 25.3% · R 74.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.8pp toward R · 2008: -37.9pp · 2024: -48.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.7 2020: R+42.8 2016: R+46.6 2012: R+41.5 2008: R+37.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -48.09%
• Current HPI: 181.3052
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Texarkana, TX-AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+15.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Listed $155,500 TBOR
• 2023-02-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-02-23 Sold (MLS) — TBOR
• 2023-01-20 Listed $135,000 TBOR
• 2015-11-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,739 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.