7309 Lockwood Dr · Houston, TX 77016

$360,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,378 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 51 Days on market

Built 1975 0.41 ac lot $261/sqft · 106% above area Est $430k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.8/15.0
• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• Cash flow +4.4/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

INVESTOR SPECIAL – 3 HOMES ON 18,000 SF LOT Rare income-producing setup with 3 dwellings on one oversized lot. 5 mins away from LBJ hospital. Front home (3 bed) is unfinished with clear value-add potential. Two rear homes (2 bed each) are tenant-occupied and producing immediate income. Strong location with quick access to US-59 and Loop 610. Property has never flooded. DO NOT DISTURB TENANTS. Limited access due to occupancy. Buyer to obtain new survey. All info is approximate; buyer to verify.

Key facts

• 0.41 acre lot
• Built 1975
• Listed 51 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot area approximately 18,000 square feet
• Financial info: Property used as residential income; 3 rental units
• HOA & community: Not specified

Exterior

• Parking: Not specified
• Security: Not specified
• Utilities: Cable available; Electricity available; Natural gas available; Water available
• Home design: Residential income property; 3 units total
• Construction: Built in 1975; Built-Up roof
• Exterior features: Cable, electricity, natural gas, and water available

Interior

• Kitchen: Not specified
• Bedrooms: Not specified
• Flooring: Not specified
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Wall furnace heating; Window unit cooling
• Interior features: Seller disclosure available
• Laundry & utility: Not specified

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $360k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-940 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $194k (46.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (45.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (46.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Key Middle (math 10% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,569 of 1,662 statewide, top 95%, 615 students, 100% FRL); Kashmere H S (math 14% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,632 statewide, top 89%, 725 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 71% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 16% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 372 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,969/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($48k/yr) (locally 1297% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (8.7% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$54k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($349k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $70k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,991 (46.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.55% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.19%
• DSCR: 0.50
• GRM: 15.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $430,000
• List price: $360,000
• Delta: -16.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7302 Sandra St	0.33mi	3/1.0	1,460 (+6%)	1mo	$239,900	$164	74
7311 Wileyvale Rd Unit A	0.12mi	3/3.0	1,280 (-7%)	6mo	$199,000	$155	69
7311 Wileyvale St Unit c	0.12mi	3/3.0	1,269 (-8%)	11mo	$209,000	$165	64
6713 Shotwell St	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,347 (-2%)	7mo	$230,000	$171	64
7309 Wileyvale St Unit B	0.10mi	3/3.0	1,221 (-11%)	10mo	$209,000	$171	60
7312 Wileyvale Rd Unit D	0.19mi	3/3.0	1,192 (-14%)	2mo	$199,000	$167	59
7312 Wileyvale Dr Unit C	0.19mi	3/3.0	1,192 (-14%)	2mo	$199,000	$167	59
5123 Denmark St	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,196 (-13%)	5mo	$220,000	$184	59
7312 Wileyvale Dr Unit E	0.16mi	3/3.0	1,192 (-14%)	6mo	$209,000	$175	57
7312 Wileyvale Dr Unit A	0.19mi	3/3.0	1,192 (-14%)	5mo	$209,000	$175	56
6905 Shotwell St	0.44mi	3/1.0	1,226 (-11%)	8mo	$140,000	$114	55
4209 Tampico Rd	0.68mi	3/2.5	1,445 (+5%)	5mo	$225,000	$156	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.65% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.98×
• Total profit: $98,611
• Equity at exit: $289,539

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.20×
• Total profit: $322,638
• Equity at exit: $590,741

Cash invested: $100,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77016

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 372
• Price-to-rent: 15.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,969 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,888
• Tax from tax record: −$457 /mo · $5,486/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $-940

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,158

Max offer price $193,991

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-736	-5% $-838	+0% $-940	+5% $-1,042	+10% $-1,144
Rent	-10% $-1,095	-5% $-1,018	+0% $-940	+5% $-862	+10% $-784
Rate	-1.0pp $-758	-0.5pp $-848	base $-940	+0.5pp $-1,033	+1.0pp $-1,128

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $90,000
• Closing costs: $10,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7740 Wileyvale Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$3,000	$2.00	44d	1	0.37mi
4626 Shreveport Blvd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,490	$1.30	14d	1	0.46mi
5609 Denmark St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,595	$1.13	44d	1	0.55mi
6315 Sandra St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,399	$1.22	44d	1	0.64mi
4326 Plaag St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1150	$1,595	$1.39	44d	1	0.66mi
8508 Wileyvale Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1504	$1,650	$1.10	44d	1	0.83mi
3812 Lynnfield St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,545	$1.19	6d	1	0.93mi
3810 Lynnfield St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,599	$1.23	15d	1	0.94mi
8639 Peachtree St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1150	$1,750	$1.52	44d	1	0.94mi
4030 Reid St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1680	$2,000	$1.19	44d	1	1.03mi
3222 Bostic St Unit 1571615P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1593	$5,423	$3.40	0d	1	1.26mi
8318 Curry Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1558	$2,299	$1.48	44d	1	1.29mi
8320 Curry Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1558	$8,950	$5.74	22d	1	1.29mi
8320 Curry Rd Unit 1391267P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1550	$5,033	$3.25	0d	1	1.29mi
8322 Curry Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1599	$2,500	$1.56	44d	1	1.30mi
3208 Bostic St Unit 1254540P Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1603	$3,673	$2.29	0d	1	1.30mi
8326 Curry Rd Unit 1228882P Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1614	$2,878	$1.78	8d	1	1.30mi
8326 Curry Rd Unit 1227052P Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1270	$3,317	$2.61	0d	1	1.30mi
7119 Bywood St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1150	$1,795	$1.56	44d	1	1.33mi
7320 Jensen Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	935	$1,176	$1.26	2d	5	1.35mi
5435 Pardee St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	1634	$1,000	$0.61	44d	1	1.39mi
3107 Melbourne St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	956	$1,500	$1.57	44d	1	1.39mi
7506 Jensen Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	772	$1,170	$1.51	0d	13	1.39mi
5414 Pardee St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	44d	1	1.40mi
7301 Jensen Dr Unit 50 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	880	$999	$1.14	8d	1	1.46mi
7301 Jensen Dr Apt 12 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	880	$930	$1.06	8d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $360,000 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $360,000 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $360,000 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $360,000 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $360,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $360,000 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $375,000 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $375,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $375,000 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $375,000 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $375,000 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-05-05
    price $399,900 519-char remark
13. 2026-04-28
    listed $430,000 Active 519-char remark
14. 2023-10-01
    historical
15. 2023-08-18
    price $315,000
16. 2023-08-02
    status Active
17. 2023-08-02
    historical
18. 2023-08-01
    listed $320,000 Active
19. 2012-01-31
    historical
20. 2011-06-13
    listed $119,000
21. 2006-03-15
    soldstatus
22. 2005-12-27
    historical
23. 2005-11-27
    listed $105,000
24. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,486 · $457/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,588 · $549/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,102/yr (+$92/mo · 20.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,625
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,166
• − Property taxes: −$5,486
• − Insurance: −$1,800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,890
• − Management: −$1,890
• − Depreciation: −$10,473
• Taxable loss: −$18,079
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,339
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,938/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,841
• Household income: $47,677
• Rent vs Own: 38.8% rent · 61.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1297.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (56%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 28%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 37%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.65%
• Current HPI: 315.6765
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+242.9% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Price Changed $360,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $375,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $399,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $430,000 HARMLS
• 2023-10-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-08-18 Price Changed $315,000 HARMLS
• 2023-08-02 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2023-08-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-08-01 Listed $320,000 HARMLS
• 2012-01-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2011-06-13 Listed $119,000 HARMLS
• 2006-03-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-12-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2005-11-27 Listed $105,000 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+11.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,486 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.