3619 Duplet Ave · Deerwood, TX 77306

$144,990

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,013 sqft · SingleFamily · 38 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $61/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The first floor of this two-story home opens into a shared living space between the kitchen and family room for easy entertaining, along with a convenient powder room. An owner's suite sprawls across the rear of the second floor and is comprised of an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. A versatile secondary bedroom and full-sized bathroom are also upstairs, ideal for household members or overnight guests.

Key facts

• Inviting family room
• Walk-in closet
• Kofa floor plan

Tags

• KOFA FLOOR PLAN
• FULLY-EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• INVITING FAMILY ROOM
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Villages of Greystone homeowners association; Community amenities: park, pool, trails; Association fee paid annually

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 2026; Cement siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Back yard fence; Subdivision lot setting; Association pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven and range; Gas oven and range
• Bedrooms: 4 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living areas)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen open to family room; Primary bedroom with private bath; Separate shower; Tub/shower combination
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $144,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $129,678.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $145k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $150 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (3.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $140k (3.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 5.4% in Deerwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Creighton El (math 31% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,668 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 940 students, 92% FRL); Caney Creek H S (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 2,504 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 86% FRL vs 34% district-wide (51 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-24 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 414 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $897 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 4% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,091 (3.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.94%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $129,678
• List price: $144,990
• Delta: 11.81%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3603 Duplet Ave	0.28mi	2/2.5	1,013 (0%)	1mo	$179,991	$178	86
17103 Saxophone Ln	0.28mi	2/2.5	1,013 (0%)	2mo	$178,990	$177	86
139 Pegasus Ct	0.43mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,120 (+11%)	10mo	$129,000	$115	47
16564 E Emerson Cir	0.40mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,120 (+11%)	15mo	$99,990	$89	44
16431 Trenda Ct	0.45mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,120 (+11%)	14mo	$55,000	$49	43
167 Orion Ln	0.50mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,120 (+11%)	23mo	$145,000	$129	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-11,431
• Equity at exit: $19,335

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $2,549
• Equity at exit: $11,212

Cash invested: $36,310 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77306

• Home prices YoY: -4.1%
• Active inventory: 414
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,401 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$680
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$162 /mo · $1,945/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$61
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $150

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,212

Max offer price $129,678

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,420
• Closing costs: $3,890
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6621 W Forest Rd Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	952	$1,450	$1.52	43d	1	0.54mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $61 · $732/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $144,990 Pending 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $144,990 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $144,990 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $144,990 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   remarks 474-char remark
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $144,990 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $144,990 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $144,990 Active 29 DOM

   Show marketing remark (411 chars)

   The first floor of this two-story home opens into a shared living space between the kitchen and family room for easy entertaining, along with a convenient powder room. An owner's suite sprawls across the rear of the second floor and is comprised of an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. A versatile secondary bedroom and full-sized bathroom are also upstairs, ideal for household members or overnight guests.

9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $127,991 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $127,991 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $127,991 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $127,991 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $127,991 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $127,991 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $127,991 Active 20 DOM
16. 2026-05-11
    historical
17. 2026-05-11
    listed $139,791 Active 441-char remark
18. 2026-05-08
    price $139,791

    Show marketing remark (411 chars)

    The first floor of this two-story home opens into a shared living space between the kitchen and family room for easy entertaining, along with a convenient powder room. An owner's suite sprawls across the rear of the second floor and is comprised of an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. A versatile secondary bedroom and full-sized bathroom are also upstairs, ideal for household members or overnight guests.

19. 2026-05-07
    price $139,791
20. 2026-05-01
    listed $144,840 Active

    Show marketing remark (411 chars)

    The first floor of this two-story home opens into a shared living space between the kitchen and family room for easy entertaining, along with a convenient powder room. An owner's suite sprawls across the rear of the second floor and is comprised of an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. A versatile secondary bedroom and full-sized bathroom are also upstairs, ideal for household members or overnight guests.

21. 2026-05-01
    listed $144,840 Active

    Show marketing remark (411 chars)

    The first floor of this two-story home opens into a shared living space between the kitchen and family room for easy entertaining, along with a convenient powder room. An owner's suite sprawls across the rear of the second floor and is comprised of an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. A versatile secondary bedroom and full-sized bathroom are also upstairs, ideal for household members or overnight guests.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,811
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,264
• − Property taxes: −$1,945
• − Insurance: −$648
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,345
• − Management: −$1,345
• − HOA: −$732
• − Depreciation: −$3,772
• Taxable loss: −$241
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$58
• After-tax cash flow: $1,852/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This two-story home is in good condition with a practical floor plan and modern amenities. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for value enhancement through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Updating the flooring — New flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal and functionality.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can enhance convenience and add value to the home.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can boost curb appeal and attract potential buyers/renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring — New flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal and functionality. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can enhance convenience and add value to the home. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can boost curb appeal and attract potential buyers/renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Deerwood

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,086
• Household income: $76,257
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 231.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 41% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 45% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.02%
• Current HPI: 306.3801
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.1% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Price Changed $144,990 Zillow
• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $144,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $127,991 HARMLS
• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $127,991 Zillow
• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $132,041 HARMLS
• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $132,041 Zillow
• 2026-05-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $139,791 HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $139,791 Zillow
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $139,791 HARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $144,840 Zillow
• 2026-05-01 Listed $144,840 HARMLS