7815 Ashley Cir · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34201

$624,999

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,151 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 2004 8,472 sqft lot Est $1141k · 45% under $112/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Presenting an exceptional opportunity in University Place, this expansive four-bedroom residence offers over 3,000 square feet of refined living on a tranquil street, gracefully backing to a private preserve. Thoughtfully updated and impeccably maintained, this home represents one of the most compelling values in the area, seamlessly blending generous scale, prime location, and modern enhancements. Recent improvements include a 2020 roof, newly installed HVAC systems in 2023 and 2024, as well as brand-new carpeting and fresh interior and exterior paint completed in October 2025, creating a truly move-in-ready experience. A striking custom-manufactured

Key facts

• Flexible room
• Gourmet kitchen
• Paver lanai

Tags

• FLEXIBLE ROOM
• PAVER LANAI
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• ABUNDANT SPACE FOR RECREATION
• RESORT INSPIRED AMENITIES
• MULTIPLE RECREATION CENTERS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Irrigation equipment installed; Lot size approximately 0.19 acres (0 to less than 1/4 acre)
• Financial info: CDD applicable
• HOA & community: HOA required (monthly fee $112); Association amenities include pool, spa/hot tub, fitness center, park, playground, gated community, and deed restrictions; Association fee includes common area taxes, pool, escrow reserves, management, and recreational facilities; Pets allowed with breed restrictions; Buyer approval required

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 3 spaces (garage approx. 21 x 30)
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas available; Cable available; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Underground utilities; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels; West-facing; Completed condition; Located in a gated community
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built by Lee Wetherington
• Exterior features: Patio; Private mailbox; Sliding doors; Landscaped yard; Level lot; Sidewalks; Paved driveway/streets

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Range; Refrigerator; Whole house reverse osmosis (R.O.) system; Tankless water heater
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Kitchen/family room combo; Living room/dining room combo; Open floorplan; Solid wood cabinets; Split bedroom layout; Stone counters; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry with washer and dryer; Inside utility/bonus room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $625k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $625k).
• Recommended offer: $606k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 3.3% in Lakewood Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Robert Willis Elementary School (math 83% / reading 79%, grade A+, #95 of 2,144 statewide, top 5%, 765 students, 22% FRL); Braden River High School (math 44% / reading 52%, grade D, #201 of 667 statewide, top 30%, 1,774 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 51% district-wide (17 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Manatee average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 102 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.6%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-1.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $175k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($606k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $625k implies a 1030% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $606,249 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.32%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,140,662
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7815 Ashley Cir	0.00mi	4/3.0	3,151 (0%)	1mo	$600,000	$190	100
7816 Ashley Cir	0.03mi	4/2.5	2,693 (-14%)	11mo	$780,000	$290	63
7915 Warwick Gardens Ln	0.38mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,915 (-8%)	3mo	$1,155,000	$396	62
7727 Heyward Cir	0.43mi	4/4.0	3,304 (+5%)	7mo	$675,000	$204	62
8125 Collingwood Ct	0.74mi	3/3.0 (-1)	3,122 (-1%)	2mo	$950,000	$304	57
8108 Collingwood Ct	0.73mi	3/3.0 (-1)	3,139 (-0%)	4mo	$1,365,000	$435	57
7305 Chatsworth Ct	0.63mi	3/3.0 (-1)	3,109 (-1%)	11mo	$1,425,000	$458	54
7204 Saint Georges Way	0.47mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,902 (-8%)	6mo	$1,050,000	$362	53
7704 Heyward Cir	0.48mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,540 (+12%)	7mo	$750,000	$212	46
7003 74th Street Cir E	0.72mi	4/3.0	2,894 (-8%)	8mo	$660,000	$228	46
7310 Chatsworth Ct	0.67mi	3/3.5 (-1)	3,512 (+12%)	2mo	$1,450,000	$413	41
7303 Westminster Ct	0.73mi	3/3.5 (-1)	3,543 (+12%)	4mo	$1,360,000	$384	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.61% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $3,910
• Equity at exit: $132,707

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $125,049
• Equity at exit: $124,407

Cash invested: $175,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34201

• Home prices YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 102
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,779 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,278
• Tax from tax record: −$638 /mo · $7,662/yr
• Insurance: −$260
• HOA: −$112
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,424
• Net cashflow: $1,067

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,428

Max offer price $624,999

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,421	-5% $1,244	+0% $1,067	+5% $890	+10% $713
Rent	-10% $531	-5% $799	+0% $1,067	+5% $1,335	+10% $1,603
Rate	-1.0pp $1,382	-0.5pp $1,226	base $1,067	+0.5pp $905	+1.0pp $740

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $156,250
• Closing costs: $18,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6945 74th Street Cir E Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.5	2930	$3,300	$1.13	17d	1	0.99mi
7005 Stanhope Pl University Park, FL	4.0	3.0	2846	$9,000	$3.16	25d	1	1.05mi
9405 Boxthorn Pl Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2669	$6,900	$2.59	4d	1	1.05mi
6914 Stanhope Pl University Park, FL	3.0	4.0	2951	$8,000	$2.71	4d	1	1.09mi
7101 Victoria Cir University Park, FL	3.0	2.5	2254	$3,900	$1.73	25d	1	1.22mi
8133 Misty Oaks Blvd Sarasota, FL	3.0	2.5	2423	$4,300	$1.77	25d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $112 · $1,344/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-04
   status Active
3. 2026-04-29
   status Pending
4. 2026-04-11
   price $624,999
5. 2026-03-21
   listed $649,999 Active
6. 2026-03-17
   historical
7. 2026-02-27
   status Active
8. 2025-12-06
   price $675,000
9. 2025-10-20
   listed $699,900 Active
10. 2003-10-23
    soldstatus $55,300

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,662 · $638/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,662 · $638/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $81,348
• − Mortgage interest: −$35,010
• − Property taxes: −$7,662
• − Insurance: −$3,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,508
• − Management: −$6,508
• − HOA: −$1,344
• − Depreciation: −$18,182
• Taxable income: $3,011
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$723
• After-tax cash flow: $12,081/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• City population: 52,177
• Population (ZIP): 3,993

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 3%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, South Korea, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · German/W. Germanic 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 6% Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.61%
• Current HPI: 173.9689
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1030.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-04 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-29 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $624,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-21 Listed $649,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-17 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-27 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-06 Price Changed $675,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-20 Listed $699,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-10-23 Sold (Public Records) $55,300 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,662 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.