1442 NE Avocado St · Madison, FL 32340

$139,840

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Manufactured public records · 45 Days on market

Built 2000 1.08 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This property is one of four available to purchase as a package or individually. This is a lovely property with lots of room for gardening or recreation. It is a located six miles from downtown and twenty miles from Lake Park, Ga. The home is in good condition and might just a few minor fixes. Please do not disturb tenants and must have a Realtor with you to be property. Also available MLS #'s 131359,131356,131357.

Key facts

• Room for recreation
• Room for gardening
• 1.08 acre lot

Tags

• ROOM FOR GARDENING
• ROOM FOR RECREATION
• SIX MILES FROM DOWNTOWN
• TWENTY MILES FROM LAKE PARK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned SFR; Lot approximately 1.08 acres

Exterior

• Utilities: Private well water
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Metal roof; Shed(s); Irregular lot

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Carpet and vinyl flooring; Ceiling fan(s)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $0 ($-4/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $140k (0.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (14.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $120k (14.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.6% in Madison — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#437 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: housing D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Madison (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #64 of 73 in FL (top 88%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Madison County Central School (math 26% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,962 of 2,144 statewide, top 92%, 846 students, 80% FRL); Madison County High School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #447 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 468 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 70% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 97 active listings in the ZIP; 31 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($967 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Madison County population projected at -29% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $120,238 (14.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.01%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.94×
• Total profit: $76,149
• Equity at exit: $125,979

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.73×
• Total profit: $224,278
• Equity at exit: $271,678

Cash invested: $39,155 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32340

• Home prices YoY: 32.0%
• Active inventory: 97
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,202 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$733
• Tax from tax record: −$159 /mo · $1,903/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $-0

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,203

Max offer price $139,785

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $79	-5% $39	+0% $0	+5% $-40	+10% $-79
Rent	-10% $-95	-5% $-48	+0% $0	+5% $47	+10% $95
Rate	-1.0pp $70	-0.5pp $35	base $0	+0.5pp $-37	+1.0pp $-73

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,960
• Closing costs: $4,195
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $139,840 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $139,840 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,840 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,840 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,840 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,840 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,840 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,840 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,840 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $139,840 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $139,840 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,840 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $139,840 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,840 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,840 Active 26 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,840 Active 25 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,840 Active 24 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $139,840 Active 23 DOM
19. 2026-05-07
    listed $139,840 Active
20. 2005-05-12
    soldstatus $122,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,903 · $159/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,903 · $159/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 11 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,429
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,833
• − Property taxes: −$1,903
• − Insurance: −$699
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,154
• − Management: −$1,154
• − Depreciation: −$4,068
• Taxable loss: −$2,384
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$572
• After-tax cash flow: $568/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison
• NCES district ID: 1201200
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $33,925
• Composite: 32.54/100
• National rank: #5693
• State rank: #64 of 73 in FL

Livability — Madison

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #437
• US rank: #7819

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing D+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,424

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,849 people
• By 2030: 15,883 · -5.7%
• By 2040: 13,861 · -17.7%
• By 2050: 11,918 · -29.3%
• By 2075: 7,810 · -53.6%
• By 2100: 4,684 · -72.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 43% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Iranian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.9) · D 35.3% · R 64.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.8pp toward R · 2008: -3.1pp · 2024: -28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.9 2020: R+19.5 2016: R+15.6 2012: R+3.4 2008: R+3.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 65.13%
• Current HPI: 268.8459
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+14.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Listed $139,840 NFMLS
• 2005-05-12 Sold (Public Records) $122,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,903 · +5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.