5674 Hiawatha St · Keystone Heights, FL 32656

$229,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Manufactured public records · 264 Days on market

Built 2018 1.13 ac lot Est $174k · 32% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

No sign on property, just follow directions to property. Great building lot located in the popular Big Tree area of Keystone Heights, and just a short drive to Palatka, Gainesville, Melrose, Middleburg, Starke and Jacksonville. Located on a paved road, with nice trees on property. Open Builder.

Key facts

• Vinyl in bathrooms
• Vinyl in kitchen
• Storage shed conveys

Tags

• NEWER MANUFACTURED HOME
• SPLIT BEDROOM FLOOR PLAN
• STEAM CLEANED CARPETS
• VINYL IN BATHROOMS
• VINYL IN KITCHEN
• STORAGE SHED CONVEYS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is listed for agricultural and residential use; Lot size approximately 1.13 acres
• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Additional off-street parking
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Septic tank; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single wide manufactured home; One story; Entry level: 1; Faces west
• Construction: Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Smoke detector(s); Shed(s); Few trees on the lot; Agricultural use allowed

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Primary bathroom with tub and shower; Split bedroom floor plan; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: In-unit laundry with electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $229k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-15 ($-182/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (1.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (26.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $169k (26.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.6% in Keystone Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#109 in FL, #1,684 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Mcrae Elementary School (math 66% / reading 58%, grade B, #608 of 2,144 statewide, top 29%, 536 students, 100% FRL); Keystone Heights Junior/Senior High (math 48% / reading 47%, grade D, #204 of 667 statewide, top 31%, 1,205 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 35% district-wide (65 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 327 active listings in the ZIP; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 264 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $18k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $229k implies a 2190% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,136 (26.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 264 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.28%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $174,080
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7398 Hoosier Ave	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,404 (+10%)	7mo	$185,000	$132	71
7436 Caribbean Cir	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+9%)	5mo	$190,000	$136	69
5677 Christian Camp Rd	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,392 (+9%)	19mo	$199,000	$143	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-38,188
• Equity at exit: $34,145

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-34,969
• Equity at exit: $19,800

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32656

• Home prices YoY: -7.4%
• Active inventory: 327
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,691 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $660/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $-15

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,711

Max offer price $226,326

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $114	-5% $50	+0% $-15	+5% $-80	+10% $-145
Rent	-10% $-149	-5% $-82	+0% $-15	+5% $52	+10% $118
Rate	-1.0pp $100	-0.5pp $43	base $-15	+0.5pp $-74	+1.0pp $-135

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $229,000 Active 264 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $229,000 Active 263 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $229,000 Active 262 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $229,000 Active 261 DOM
5. 2026-03-11
   status Active
6. 2026-03-11
   price $229,000
7. 2026-03-01
   historical
8. 2026-03-01
   status Active
9. 2026-02-22
   historical
10. 2025-09-18
    price $235,000
11. 2025-08-26
    listed $247,500 Active
12. 2013-03-21
    soldstatus $10,000
13. 2013-03-18
    soldstatus $10,000 295-char remark

    Show marketing remark (295 chars)

    No sign on property, just follow directions to property. Great building lot located in the popular Big Tree area of Keystone Heights, and just a short drive to Palatka, Gainesville, Melrose, Middleburg, Starke and Jacksonville. Located on a paved road, with nice trees on property. Open Builder.

14. 2012-07-13
    listed $15,000 295-char remark

    Show marketing remark (295 chars)

    No sign on property, just follow directions to property. Great building lot located in the popular Big Tree area of Keystone Heights, and just a short drive to Palatka, Gainesville, Melrose, Middleburg, Starke and Jacksonville. Located on a paved road, with nice trees on property. Open Builder.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $660 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,901 · $158/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,241/yr (+$103/mo · 188.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,296
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$660
• − Insurance: −$1,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,624
• − Management: −$1,624
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable loss: −$4,245
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,019
• After-tax cash flow: $837/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Keystone Heights

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #1684

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 15,630

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -27.65%
• Current HPI: 344.7744
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1426.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Relisted — realMLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $229,000 realMLS
• 2026-03-01 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2026-03-01 Relisted — realMLS
• 2026-02-22 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2025-09-18 Price Changed $235,000 realMLS
• 2025-08-26 Listed $247,500 realMLS
• 2013-03-21 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records
• 2013-03-18 Sold (MLS) $10,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-07-13 Listed $15,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+14.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $660 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.