4835 Timothy St · Middleburg, FL 32068

$142,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2022 1.11 ac lot Est $243k · 42% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.8/10.0
• 1% rule +9.1/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

4 bedroom 2 bathroom Manufactured home built in 2022 on 1.13 acre of land. Plenty of space to enjoy the outdoors and add to the property. High speed Fiber Optic internet available.

Key facts

• 1.11 acre lot
• Built 2022

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Additional parking available
• Utilities: Septic tank sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured home; Residential use
• Exterior features: 1.11-acre lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: No built-in appliances listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $142k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $429 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $142k).
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 3.8% in Middleburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#657 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 601 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $982 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.4% rent growth), your $40k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $142,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.94%
• DSCR: 1.58
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $243,040
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2501 Cosmos Ave	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (-0%)	15mo	$250,000	$160	63
4799 Wheat Ct	0.68mi	3/2.5	1,510 (-4%)	9mo	$275,000	$182	53
4794 Dandelion St	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,728 (+10%)	7mo	$249,900	$145	50
2946 Backwoods Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,568 (0%)	21mo	$276,000	$176	48
2495 Sunflower Ave	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-14%)	19mo	$208,000	$155	40
2565 Hibiscus Ave	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,352 (-14%)	17mo	$160,000	$118	34
2684 Myrtle Loop	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,724 (+10%)	24mo	$247,500	$144	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $5,133
• Equity at exit: $21,173

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.08×
• Total profit: $43,087
• Equity at exit: $12,278

Cash invested: $39,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32068

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 601
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,998 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$745
• Tax from tax record: −$346 /mo · $4,149/yr
• Insurance: −$59
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $429

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,455

Max offer price $142,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $509	-5% $469	+0% $429	+5% $388	+10% $348
Rent	-10% $271	-5% $350	+0% $429	+5% $508	+10% $587
Rate	-1.0pp $500	-0.5pp $465	base $429	+0.5pp $392	+1.0pp $354

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,500
• Closing costs: $4,260
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-27
   listed $142,000 Active
3. 2026-02-22
   historical $2,200
4. 2026-01-21
   listed $2,200
5. 2024-08-01
   historical $2,100
6. 2024-07-22
   price $2,100
7. 2024-07-16
   listed $1,950
8. 2024-05-14
   historical 180-char remark

   Show marketing remark (180 chars)

   4 bedroom 2 bathroom Manufactured home built in 2022 on 1.13 acre of land. Plenty of space to enjoy the outdoors and add to the property. High speed Fiber Optic internet available.

9. 2024-03-24
   price $263,000 180-char remark

   Show marketing remark (180 chars)

   4 bedroom 2 bathroom Manufactured home built in 2022 on 1.13 acre of land. Plenty of space to enjoy the outdoors and add to the property. High speed Fiber Optic internet available.

10. 2024-03-15
    price $268,000 180-char remark

    Show marketing remark (180 chars)

    4 bedroom 2 bathroom Manufactured home built in 2022 on 1.13 acre of land. Plenty of space to enjoy the outdoors and add to the property. High speed Fiber Optic internet available.

11. 2024-03-11
    listed $273,000 Active 180-char remark

    Show marketing remark (180 chars)

    4 bedroom 2 bathroom Manufactured home built in 2022 on 1.13 acre of land. Plenty of space to enjoy the outdoors and add to the property. High speed Fiber Optic internet available.

12. 2024-03-08
    historical
13. 2024-03-05
    listed $279,900 Active
14. 2023-10-23
    historical $2,115
15. 2023-10-20
    price $2,115
16. 2023-10-04
    listed $2,215
17. 2022-08-03
    soldstatus $243,000
18. 2022-07-27
    soldstatus $243,000 Sold
19. 2022-04-24
    status Pending
20. 2022-04-21
    listed $239,000 Active
21. 1984-06-01
    soldstatus $7,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,149 · $346/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,149 · $346/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,974
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,954
• − Property taxes: −$4,149
• − Insurance: −$710
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,918
• − Management: −$1,918
• − Depreciation: −$4,131
• Taxable income: $3,194
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$767
• After-tax cash flow: $4,378/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Middleburg

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #657
• US rank: #13174

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Middleburg, FL
• County: Clay County · 208,450 people
• City population: 58,983
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 58,983
• Household income: $84,431
• Rent vs Own: 20.7% rent · 79.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 975.0

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Arabic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -115.99%
• Current HPI: 305.2531
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.35%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1928.6% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-04-27 Listed $142,000 realMLS
• 2026-02-22 Rental Removed $2,200 Avail
• 2026-01-21 Listed for Rent $2,200 Avail
• 2024-08-01 Rental Removed $2,100 TURBOTENANT
• 2024-07-22 Price Changed $2,100 TURBOTENANT
• 2024-07-16 Listed for Rent $1,950 TURBOTENANT
• 2024-05-14 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2024-03-24 Price Changed $263,000 realMLS
• 2024-03-15 Price Changed $268,000 realMLS
• 2024-03-11 Listed $273,000 realMLS
• 2024-03-08 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-05 Listed $279,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-23 Rental Removed $2,115 Avail
• 2023-10-20 Price Changed $2,115 Avail
• 2023-10-04 Listed for Rent $2,215 Avail
• 2022-08-03 Sold (Public Records) $243,000 Public Records
• 2022-07-27 Sold (MLS) $243,000 realMLS
• 2022-04-24 Pending — realMLS
• 2022-04-21 Listed $239,000 realMLS
• 1984-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $7,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+27.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,149 · +7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.