223 Grand Ave · Cumberland, MD 21502

$139,999

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 3,078 sqft · Townhouse public records · 121 Days on market

Built 1920 4,250 sqft lot $45/sqft · 41% above area Est $99k · 41% over ↓ 44% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.4/30.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fabulous single side of duplex with new flooring throughout unit, well maintained unit, lived in by owner. Mostly renovated in 223. Unit has 3 bedrooms and 1.5 bathrooms. If you have a large family or would like a great place to live this is your new home. This property is a must see. Close to everything within the City limits.

Key facts

• New flooring
• Close to everything
• Mostly renovated

Tags

• NEW FLOORING
• MOSTLY RENOVATED
• CLOSE TO EVERYTHING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $409 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 6.7% in Cumberland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#64 in MD, #2,385 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, employment F.
• Allegany County Public Schools (other): math 15% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #18 of 24 in MD (top 75%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.9%/yr); 238 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 24 units permitted in Allegany County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Allegany County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,199 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.52%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $99,176
• List price: $139,999
• Delta: 41.16%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $11,800
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.10×
• Total profit: $82,256
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21502

• Home prices YoY: -17.4%
• Rents YoY: 10.9%
• Active inventory: 238
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,606 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$67 /mo · $803/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$337
• Net cashflow: $409

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,088

Max offer price $139,999

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $488	-5% $449	+0% $409	+5% $369	+10% $330
Rent	-10% $282	-5% $345	+0% $409	+5% $472	+10% $536
Rate	-1.0pp $479	-0.5pp $445	base $409	+0.5pp $373	+1.0pp $336

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
630 Hill Top Dr Cumberland, MD	5.0	1.5	2300	$1,495	$0.65	45d	1	0.60mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $139,999 Active 121 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $139,999 Active 119 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,999 Active 118 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,999 Active 117 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,999 Active 116 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,999 Active 115 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,999 Active 113 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $139,999 Active 112 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,999 Active 109 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $139,999 Active 108 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,999 Active 107 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,999 Active 102 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,999 Active 101 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,999 Active 100 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $139,999 Active 99 DOM
16. 2026-04-26
    price $139,999 331-char remark

    Show marketing remark (331 chars)

    Fabulous single side of duplex with new flooring throughout unit, well maintained unit, lived in by owner. Mostly renovated in 223. Unit has 3 bedrooms and 1.5 bathrooms. If you have a large family or would like a great place to live this is your new home. This property is a must see. Close to everything within the City limits.

17. 2026-02-25
    historical
18. 2026-02-20
    listed $149,999 Active 331-char remark

    Show marketing remark (331 chars)

    Fabulous single side of duplex with new flooring throughout unit, well maintained unit, lived in by owner. Mostly renovated in 223. Unit has 3 bedrooms and 1.5 bathrooms. If you have a large family or would like a great place to live this is your new home. This property is a must see. Close to everything within the City limits.

19. 2026-01-27
    price $149,999
20. 2025-12-05
    listed $249,999 Active
21. 2025-12-02
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $803 · $67/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,165 · $97/mo
• Expected delta: +$361/yr (+$30/mo · 45.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,266
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$803
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,541
• − Management: −$1,541
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $2,765
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$664
• After-tax cash flow: $4,243/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Allegany County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400030
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $39,760
• Composite: 18.95/100
• National rank: #8854
• State rank: #18 of 24 in MD

Livability — Cumberland

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #64
• US rank: #2385

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cumberland, MD
• County: Allegany County · 41,015 people
• City population: 41,015
• Metro: Cumberland, MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 41,015
• Household income: $60,725
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 824.0

Population outlook (Allegany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,778 people
• By 2030: 66,766 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 62,784 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 59,179 · -14.0%
• By 2075: 50,732 · -26.2%
• By 2100: 40,837 · -40.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Black 9% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Allegany

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.3) · D 28.9% · R 69.2% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -25.9pp · 2024: -40.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.3 2020: R+38.3 2016: R+48.0 2012: R+32.9 2008: R+25.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.33%
• Current HPI: 258.6676
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.88%
• Metro: Cumberland, MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

-44.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Price Changed $139,999 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-25 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-20 Listed $149,999 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $149,999 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-05 Listed $249,999 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-02 Coming Soon — BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $803 · +6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.