309 Central Dr · Fayetteville, NC 28301

$69,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1942 Est $125k · 44% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor special with strong upside potential! This 2-bedroom, 1-bath fixer-upper is conveniently located near Fort Bragg and just minutes from the growing and revitalized downtown Fayetteville area. Featuring a living room, separate dining room, and solid layout, this property is full of possibilities for investors, flippers, landlords, or buyers looking to create a cozy home with their own personal touch. Located near shopping, restaurants, schools, entertainment, and major highways, this home offers excellent rental and resale potential in an area seeing continued growth and development. Downtown Fayetteville continues to expand with new businesses, restaurants, entertainment, and revita

Key facts

• Convenient location
• Built 1942
• Listed 29 days

Tags

• CONVENIENT LOCATION
• STRONG INVESTMENT POTENTIAL
• GREAT RENTAL OPPORTUNITY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Built in 1942
• Exterior features: Located in the Terry Sanford subdivision; Street address: 309 Central Dr, Fayetteville, NC 28301

Interior

• Interior features: Cozy interior in a smaller living area (800 total living area)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $44 ($524/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.4% vs local median 4.8% in Fayetteville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#45 in NC, #4,031 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Margaret Willis Elementary (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,331 of 1,410 statewide, top 96%, 299 students, 99% FRL); R Max Abbott Middle (math 31% / reading 45%, grade F, #251 of 475 statewide, top 54%, 759 students, 99% FRL); Terry Sanford High (math 49% / reading 52%, grade D+, #306 of 535 statewide, top 57%, 1,224 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 85% FRL vs 55% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 135 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($39k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $481 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $70k implies a 178% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1942 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $68,457 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1942 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.75% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.99%
• DSCR: 2.29
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $124,800
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1207 Hillsboro St	0.19mi	2/1.0 (-1)	830 (+4%)	2mo	$150,000	$181	78
276 N Windsor Dr	0.17mi	2/1.0 (-1)	775 (-3%)	6mo	$92,000	$119	77
1211 West Dr	0.08mi	2/1.0 (-1)	810 (+1%)	20mo	$55,000	$68	73
140 Kensington Cir	0.50mi	2/1.0 (-1)	800 (0%)	10mo	$131,500	$164	63
1406 Edgecombe Ave	0.28mi	2/1.0 (-1)	896 (+12%)	3mo	$85,000	$95	59
151 Kensington Cir	0.45mi	2/1.0 (-1)	857 (+7%)	5mo	$57,500	$67	58
2007 Overlook Dr	0.58mi	3/1.0	786 (-2%)	18mo	$85,000	$108	55
1203 North St	0.61mi	2/1.0 (-1)	715 (-11%)	1mo	$126,628	$177	48
805 Minurva Ct	0.61mi	3/1.0	864 (+8%)	14mo	$150,000	$174	46
1601 Minurva Dr	0.65mi	3/1.0	864 (+8%)	14mo	$135,000	$156	45
822 E Orange St	0.68mi	3/1.0	863 (+8%)	13mo	$35,000	$41	44
306 Plum St	0.50mi	2/1.0 (-1)	720 (-10%)	21mo	$130,000	$181	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.49% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-7,590
• Equity at exit: $10,363

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $646
• Equity at exit: $6,009

Cash invested: $19,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28301

• Home prices YoY: -12.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,220 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$364
• Tax from tax record: −$100 /mo · $1,198/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$256
• Net cashflow: $44

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,164

Max offer price $69,500

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $83	-5% $63	+0% $44	+5% $24	+10% $4
Rent	-10% $-53	-5% $-5	+0% $44	+5% $92	+10% $140
Rate	-1.0pp $79	-0.5pp $61	base $44	+0.5pp $26	+1.0pp $7

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,375
• Closing costs: $2,085
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
307 Hawthorne Rd Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.0	886	$1,125	$1.27	15d	1	0.08mi
282 Windsor Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.0	855	$1,000	$1.17	25d	1	0.17mi
112 Quincy St Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.0	1080	$1,320	$1.22	15d	1	0.35mi
113 Mullins Ave Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,025	$1.02	25d	1	0.36mi
122 Kensington Cir Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.0	856	$1,250	$1.46	25d	1	0.44mi
1608 Fayette Ave Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.0	900	$875	$0.97	15d	1	0.49mi
1608 Fayette Ave Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.0	900	$875	$0.97	25d	1	0.49mi
302 Brookwood Ave Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.0	979	$1,250	$1.28	15d	1	0.58mi
1847 Blake St Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	900	$990	$1.10	25d	1	0.67mi
1847 Blake St Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	900	$990	$1.10	15d	1	0.67mi
1606 Gibson St Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.5	1014	$1,000	$0.99	25d	1	0.68mi
1704 Newark Ave Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.0	1100	$850	$0.77	25d	1	0.82mi
398 Bainbridge Ct Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	900	$990	$1.10	15d	1	0.82mi
398 Bainbridge Ct Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	900	$990	$1.10	25d	1	0.82mi
806 Lakeland St Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.0	864	$1,400	$1.62	25d	1	0.83mi
2061 Osceola Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.0	928	$1,300	$1.40	25d	1	0.84mi
100 Sycamore Ct Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.0	800	$875	$1.09	25d	1	0.84mi
2015 Blake St Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.0	700	$995	$1.42	25d	1	0.89mi
110 Facility Dr #2015 Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.0	700	$995	$1.42	25d	1	0.90mi
620 Forest Rd Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.0	1000	$975	$0.97	25d	2	1.10mi
1021 W Rowan St Unit H Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.5	930	$850	$0.91	25d	1	1.20mi
1261 Thelbert Dr Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.0	768	$1,100	$1.43	15d	1	1.21mi
1108 Norwood St Unit A Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.0	856	$1,025	$1.20	25d	1	1.30mi
2212 Murchison Rd Unit B Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.0	564	$1,099	$1.95	15d	1	1.31mi
2212 Murchison Rd Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.0	564	$1,250	$2.22	25d	1	1.31mi
536 Pearl St Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.0	1101	$1,349	$1.23	15d	1	1.34mi
1100 Clarendon St #402 Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1073	$1,400	$1.30	23d	1	1.38mi
216 Brainerd Ave Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.0	818	$1,150	$1.41	25d	1	1.40mi
450 Hay St Fayetteville, NC	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	799	$1,745	$2.18	15d	3	1.41mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $69,500 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,500 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,500 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,500 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,500 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $69,500 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,500 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $69,500 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,500 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $69,500 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $69,500 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $69,500 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,500 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,500 Active 9 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,500 Active 8 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $69,500 Active 7 DOM
17. 2026-05-24
    listed $69,500 Active
18. 1992-09-25
    soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,198 · $100/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,198 · $100/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,634
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,893
• − Property taxes: −$1,198
• − Insurance: −$5,466
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,171
• − Management: −$1,171
• − Depreciation: −$2,022
• Taxable loss: −$286
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$69
• After-tax cash flow: $592/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700011
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,168
• Composite: 31.0/100
• National rank: #6096
• State rank: #126 of 178 in NC

Livability — Fayetteville

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #45
• US rank: #4031

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fayetteville, NC
• County: Cumberland County · 265,314 people
• City population: 226,118
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 16,798
• Household income: $39,198
• Rent vs Own: 64.7% rent · 35.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1389.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 330,855 people
• By 2030: 333,523 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 335,583 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 335,325 · +1.4%
• By 2075: 342,853 · +3.6%
• By 2100: 340,698 · +3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 68% White 19% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: D (+13.4) · D 56.1% · R 42.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 13.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.4 2020: D+16.6 2016: D+16.0 2012: D+19.7 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -37.92%
• Current HPI: 265.98
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.49%
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+178.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Listed $69,500 FSBO.com
• 1992-09-25 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,198 · +37.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.