21401 Coyote Trl · Lago Vista, TX 78645

$149,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · Manufactured public records · 942 Days on market

Built 1978 4,665 sqft lot $141/sqft · 11% above area Est $142k · 6% over $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 27% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.5/30.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• ARV discount +4.9/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PRICED TO MOVE!! Great opportunity for 1st time home owners! Recent HVAC, paint, flooring, windows, and roof!! Corner lot! Enjoy the Lake Life and many many other amenities through Lago Vista POA. Tennis, hiking, pool, lake access, etc. All appliances and furniture convey!!

Key facts

• 4,665 sq ft lot
• 3 parking spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $280 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 2.3% in Lago Vista — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#275 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Lago Vista ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #269 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 1092 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 54% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($113k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 942 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $55k (27%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 942 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.01%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $141,750
• List price: $149,900
• Delta: 5.75%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21504 Coyote Trl	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+14%)	23mo	$105,300	$87	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-6,523
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $17,009
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78645

• Home prices YoY: -31.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 1092
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,542 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $876/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$324
• Net cashflow: $280

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,188

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7113 Comstock Cv Unit Rt side Lago Vista, TX	2.0	1.0	750	$1,000	$1.33	44d	1	0.17mi
21513 Coyote Trl Unit B Lago Vista, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$1,295	$1.62	44d	1	0.17mi
21475 Coyote Trl Unit A Lago Vista, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,295	$1.44	44d	1	0.29mi
21475 Coyote Trl #2 Lago Vista, TX	2.0	1.0	896	$1,095	$1.22	24d	1	0.29mi
5916 Lago Vista Way Unit B-10 UP Lago Vista, TX	2.0	2.0	1110	$1,295	$1.17	44d	1	1.16mi
5914 Lago Vista Way Unit C23 Lago Vista, TX	2.0	2.0	1037	$1,295	$1.25	24d	1	1.19mi
20802 Bonanza Unit 3 Lago Vista, TX	2.0	2.0	826	$1,100	$1.33	44d	1	1.24mi
5909 Lago Vista Way Unit D Lago Vista, TX	2.0	2.0	918	$1,545	$1.68	18d	1	1.24mi
5909 Lago Vista Way Unit B Lago Vista, TX	2.0	2.0	918	$1,645	$1.79	18d	1	1.24mi
20600 Bonanza Unit 4 Leander, TX	2.0	1.0	840	$1,300	$1.55	44d	1	1.33mi
20600 Bonanza Unit 4 Leander, TX	2.0	1.0	1062	$1,300	$1.22	20d	1	1.33mi
20600 Bonanza Unit 3 Leander, TX	4.0	1.5	1143	$1,450	$1.27	3d	1	1.33mi
20507 Bonanza Lago Vista, TX	3.0	2.5	1451	$1,895	$1.31	44d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 942 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 941 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 940 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 939 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 937 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,900 Active 933 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,900 Active 932 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,900 Active 931 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $149,900 Active 928 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,900 Active 927 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,900 Active 926 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 925 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 924 DOM
14. 2026-01-29
    price $149,900 275-char remark

    Show marketing remark (275 chars)

    PRICED TO MOVE!! Great opportunity for 1st time home owners! Recent HVAC, paint, flooring, windows, and roof!! Corner lot! Enjoy the Lake Life and many many other amenities through Lago Vista POA. Tennis, hiking, pool, lake access, etc. All appliances and furniture convey!!

15. 2025-06-24
    price $165,000 275-char remark

    Show marketing remark (275 chars)

    PRICED TO MOVE!! Great opportunity for 1st time home owners! Recent HVAC, paint, flooring, windows, and roof!! Corner lot! Enjoy the Lake Life and many many other amenities through Lago Vista POA. Tennis, hiking, pool, lake access, etc. All appliances and furniture convey!!

16. 2024-12-19
    price $175,000 275-char remark

    Show marketing remark (275 chars)

    PRICED TO MOVE!! Great opportunity for 1st time home owners! Recent HVAC, paint, flooring, windows, and roof!! Corner lot! Enjoy the Lake Life and many many other amenities through Lago Vista POA. Tennis, hiking, pool, lake access, etc. All appliances and furniture convey!!

17. 2024-09-17
    status Active 275-char remark

    Show marketing remark (275 chars)

    PRICED TO MOVE!! Great opportunity for 1st time home owners! Recent HVAC, paint, flooring, windows, and roof!! Corner lot! Enjoy the Lake Life and many many other amenities through Lago Vista POA. Tennis, hiking, pool, lake access, etc. All appliances and furniture convey!!

18. 2024-06-15
    price $185,000 275-char remark

    Show marketing remark (275 chars)

    PRICED TO MOVE!! Great opportunity for 1st time home owners! Recent HVAC, paint, flooring, windows, and roof!! Corner lot! Enjoy the Lake Life and many many other amenities through Lago Vista POA. Tennis, hiking, pool, lake access, etc. All appliances and furniture convey!!

19. 2024-01-10
    price $195,000 275-char remark

    Show marketing remark (275 chars)

    PRICED TO MOVE!! Great opportunity for 1st time home owners! Recent HVAC, paint, flooring, windows, and roof!! Corner lot! Enjoy the Lake Life and many many other amenities through Lago Vista POA. Tennis, hiking, pool, lake access, etc. All appliances and furniture convey!!

20. 2023-11-14
    listed $205,000 Active 275-char remark

    Show marketing remark (275 chars)

    PRICED TO MOVE!! Great opportunity for 1st time home owners! Recent HVAC, paint, flooring, windows, and roof!! Corner lot! Enjoy the Lake Life and many many other amenities through Lago Vista POA. Tennis, hiking, pool, lake access, etc. All appliances and furniture convey!!

21. 2006-12-28
    soldstatus
22. 1984-05-25
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $876 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,743 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,867/yr (+$156/mo · 213.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,510
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$876
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,481
• − Management: −$1,481
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $961
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$231
• After-tax cash flow: $3,130/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lago Vista ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826400
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $73,671
• Composite: 38.35/100
• National rank: #4216
• State rank: #269 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lago Vista

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #275
• US rank: #6393

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lago Vista, TX
• County: Travis County · 1,299,254 people
• City population: 15,256
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 15,256
• Household income: $113,008
• Rent vs Own: 9.2% rent · 90.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 20.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.02%
• Current HPI: 211.9678
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.98%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-26.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $149,900 Unlock MLS
• 2025-06-24 Price Changed $165,000 Unlock MLS
• 2024-12-19 Price Changed $175,000 Unlock MLS
• 2024-09-17 Relisted — Unlock MLS
• 2024-06-15 Price Changed $185,000 Unlock MLS
• 2024-01-10 Price Changed $195,000 Unlock MLS
• 2023-11-14 Listed $205,000 Unlock MLS
• 2006-12-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1984-05-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $876 · -6.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.