104 Watson Rd · North Syracuse, NY 13212

$174,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,006 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1908 0.25 ac lot Est $193k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Tremendous opportunity to own this 3-bedroom, 1.5-bathroom home with over 1,000 sf of living space for LESS THAN many rents! The main level of this home offers a nicely sized living room, a dining space, a large kitchen with a breakfast bar, and a convenient half bathroom! Upstairs, you will find the primary bedroom with a walk-in closet, two additional bedrooms, and a full bathroom. Ample storage is available in the full basement and oversized one-car garage. This property is situated on a lot that is almost 200 feet deep and fenced, and is ready for your offer!

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1908

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected; High-speed internet available; Cable available; Circuit breaker electrical service
• Home design: Single-story; Existing property condition
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Asphalt roof; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Fully fenced yard; Near public transit; Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Not specified
• Flooring: Hardwood; Tile; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom; One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced air heating
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Separate/formal dining room; Separate/formal living room; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-7 ($-81/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $174k (0.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $174k (0.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 5.1% in North Syracuse — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#379 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools C-, crime D, amenities F.
• North Syracuse Central School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #402 of 590 in NY (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 66 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $175k implies a 59% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; built in 1908 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $173,711 (0.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1908 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.16%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $193,152
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
120 Van Mara Dr	0.36mi	3/1.5	1,008 (+0%)	10mo	$240,000	$238	74
109 Grove St	0.44mi	3/1.0	1,001 (-0%)	8mo	$245,000	$245	70
104 Lynhurst Ave	0.14mi	3/1.5	1,128 (+12%)	8mo	$161,700	$143	67
128 Northfield Dr	0.53mi	3/1.0	1,104 (+10%)	1mo	$206,500	$187	56
213 Roxann Ave	0.57mi	3/1.5	1,080 (+7%)	10mo	$207,500	$192	53
5462 Bear Rd	0.66mi	2/1.0 (-1)	960 (-5%)	7mo	$135,000	$141	49
5632 W Circle Dr	0.62mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,104 (+10%)	1mo	$234,900	$213	47
309 Wells Ave E	0.54mi	2/1.0 (-1)	924 (-8%)	11mo	$181,510	$196	45
127 Oakley Dr	0.67mi	3/1.0	864 (-14%)	1mo	$160,000	$185	42
421 Fergerson Ave	0.66mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,112 (+10%)	5mo	$208,000	$187	40
117 Edden Ln	0.74mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,080 (+7%)	9mo	$150,000	$139	38
112 Oakley Dr	0.66mi	3/1.0	864 (-14%)	11mo	$222,500	$258	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-28,621
• Equity at exit: $26,078

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-24,868
• Equity at exit: $15,122

Cash invested: $48,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13212

• Active inventory: 66
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,774 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax from tax record: −$418 /mo · $5,016/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $-7

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,782

Max offer price $173,711

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $92	-5% $43	+0% $-7	+5% $-56	+10% $-106
Rent	-10% $-147	-5% $-77	+0% $-7	+5% $63	+10% $133
Rate	-1.0pp $81	-0.5pp $38	base $-7	+0.5pp $-52	+1.0pp $-98

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,725
• Closing costs: $5,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5548 Bear Rd Syracuse, NY	2.0	1.0–1.5	1100	$1,560	$1.42	14d	2	0.45mi
107 Stephen Pl Syracuse, NY	2.0	1.0	1199	$2,250	$1.88	45d	1	0.91mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-07
   listed $174,900 Active
3. 2009-09-18
   soldstatus $110,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,016 · $418/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,016 · $418/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,286
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,797
• − Property taxes: −$5,016
• − Insurance: −$874
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,703
• − Management: −$1,703
• − Depreciation: −$5,088
• Taxable loss: −$2,895
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$695
• After-tax cash flow: $614/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Syracuse Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3621210
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $62,904
• Composite: 41.93/100
• National rank: #3356
• State rank: #402 of 590 in NY

Livability — North Syracuse

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #379
• US rank: #6513

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime D Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Syracuse, NY
• City population: 20,185
• Population (ZIP): 20,185

Population outlook (Onondaga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 467,894 people
• By 2030: 463,381 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 447,697 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 426,399 · -8.9%
• By 2075: 373,661 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 307,967 · -34.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Onondaga

• 2024 margin: D (+17.3) · D 58.6% · R 41.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: 20.3pp · 2024: 17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.3 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+12.8 2012: D+21.1 2008: D+20.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -210.93%
• Current HPI: 317.7322
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+59.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $174,900 CNYIS
• 2009-09-18 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,016 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.