2355 Atwater #13 · Atwater, CA 95301

$95,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 742 sqft · Manufactured · 95 Days on market

Built 2017

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.6/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Move-in ready and fully furnished, this inviting home offers a comfortable and convenient turnkey opportunity in a welcoming Atwater community. The functional layout creates a warm and relaxing living space that's easy to enjoy from the moment you arrive. The home features central heating and air conditioning, along with two mini-split AC systems that allow you to heat or cool individual rooms as neededoffering flexibility, comfort, and the potential for improved energy efficiency. Additional highlights include 2 storage sheds , providing valuable extra space for tools, hobbies, or seasonal storage. The community currently offers a $300 monthly subsidy applied toward the base space rent (su

Key facts

• Central heating
• Air conditioning
• Storage sheds

Tags

• CENTRAL HEATING
• AIR CONDITIONING
• MINI-SPLIT AC SYSTEMS
• STORAGE SHEDS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease: No (listed land lease amount $795 noted)
• HOA & community: No association; Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas connected; Cable available; 220 volts in kitchen; 220 volts in laundry
• Home design: Manufactured home located in a park; Single wide; Built in 2017
• Construction: Vinyl skirting; Composition roof; Manufactured home construction
• Exterior features: Storage shed(s); Storage area; Lot details: see remarks

Interior

• Kitchen: Free standing gas range; Free standing refrigerator; Microwave; Laminate countertops
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with tub/shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central cooling; Wall units; Multiple HVAC units (see remarks)
• Interior features: Accessible full bathroom; Furnished; Dining and living room combined; Laminate counters in kitchen; Storage area (interior or attached)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry closet; Electric hookup for laundry (220 volts available)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $313 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $86k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 2.8% in Atwater — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#295 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, amenities B; Watch: employment D+, schools D, crime F.
• Merced Union High (urban): math 20% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #301 of 517 in CA (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 115 active listings in the ZIP; 459 units permitted in Merced County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Merced County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $86,450 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.12%
• DSCR: 1.63
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $59,360
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2324 Olive Ave #13	0.00mi	2/1.0	742 (0%)	8mo	$50,000	$67	94
2355 Atwater Blvd #11	0.00mi	2/1.0	742 (0%)	10mo	$59,000	$80	92
2355 Atwater #23	0.03mi	3/2.0 (+1)	725 (-2%)	19mo	$64,950	$90	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $4,561
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.12×
• Total profit: $29,718
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95301

• Active inventory: 115
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,227 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$119 /mo · $1,425/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $313

Break-even live

Break-even rent $831

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 95 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 94 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 93 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 92 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $95,000 Active 90 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 89 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $95,000 Active 87 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 86 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,000 Active 85 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $95,000 Active 84 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $95,000 Active 80 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 79 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 78 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 77 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $95,000 Active 76 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,727
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,425
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,178
• − Management: −$1,178
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $2,386
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$573
• After-tax cash flow: $3,184/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Merced Union High
• NCES district ID: 0624660
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,977
• Composite: 28.11/100
• National rank: #6823
• State rank: #301 of 517 in CA

Livability — Atwater

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #295
• US rank: #9893

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atwater, CA
• County: Merced County · 205,386 people
• City population: 43,009
• Metro: Merced, CA
• Population (ZIP): 43,009
• Household income: $68,349
• Rent vs Own: 43.4% rent · 56.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1477.0

Population outlook (Merced County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 285,501 people
• By 2030: 293,437 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 308,808 · +8.2%
• By 2050: 321,011 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 338,497 · +18.6%
• By 2100: 330,493 · +15.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 53% White 33% Two or more races 11% Asian 6% Black 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 50%
• Common ancestry: Russian 7% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada
• Languages at home: 56% English-only · Spanish 37% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Merced

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.5% · R 50.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+7.9 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -365.43%
• Current HPI: 281.52
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Merced, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B