456 M L King Jr Cir · Zebulon, GA 30295

$175,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured public records · 95 Days on market

Built 2000 0.68 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.4/30.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Appreciation +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to country living! Well maintained 4 bed/2 bath manufactured home on permanent foundation in Pike County. This home is on a beautiful .68 acre private lot, with a privacy fence. It has a large front porch, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. The roof was recently replaced and there is a new shed in the backyard. Great for an investment property or to occupy. No HOA. Walking distance to Pike County schools! Make your appointment today!

Key facts

• Private lot
• Large front porch
• Privacy fence

Tags

• PRIVATE LOT
• PRIVACY FENCE
• LARGE FRONT PORCH
• RECENTLY REPLACED ROOF
• NEW SHED
• WALKING DISTANCE TO SCHOOLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $512 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $159k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 2.6% in Zebulon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#463 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Pike County (rural): math 32% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #64 of 174 in GA (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 91 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.9%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pike County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-1.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 53% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,250 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.53%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.86% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $12,684
• Equity at exit: $35,169

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.23×
• Total profit: $60,336
• Equity at exit: $31,189

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30295

• Home prices YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 50
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,943 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$32 /mo · $387/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $512

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,295

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
200 Wrightsburg Way Zebulon, GA	3.0	2.5	1280	$1,850	$1.45	11d	1	0.67mi
119 Wrightsburg Way Zebulon, GA	3.0	2.5	1560	$2,195	$1.41	15d	1	0.70mi
99 Wrightsburg Way Zebulon, GA	3.0	2.5	1560	$2,095	$1.34	1d	1	0.71mi
264 Wrightsburg Way Zebulon, GA	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,795	$1.40	1d	1	0.71mi
170 Williamson Zebulon Rd Unit 105 Zebulon, GA	3.0	2.5	1328	$1,495	$1.13	4d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $175,000 Active 95 DOM
2. 2026-02-11
   historical
3. 2025-09-28
   listed $175,000 New 448-char remark

   Show marketing remark (448 chars)

   Welcome to country living! Well maintained 4 bed/2 bath manufactured home on permanent foundation in Pike County. This home is on a beautiful .68 acre private lot, with a privacy fence. It has a large front porch, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. The roof was recently replaced and there is a new shed in the backyard. Great for an investment property or to occupy. No HOA. Walking distance to Pike County schools! Make your appointment today!

4. 2025-09-28
   listed $175,000 New

   Show marketing remark (448 chars)

   Welcome to country living! Well maintained 4 bed/2 bath manufactured home on permanent foundation in Pike County. This home is on a beautiful .68 acre private lot, with a privacy fence. It has a large front porch, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. The roof was recently replaced and there is a new shed in the backyard. Great for an investment property or to occupy. No HOA. Walking distance to Pike County schools! Make your appointment today!

5. 2024-06-13
   soldstatus $155,000
6. 2024-06-04
   soldstatus $155,000 Sold
7. 2024-05-20
   historical Active Under Contract
8. 2024-04-26
   price $155,000
9. 2024-04-02
   price $167,000
10. 2024-02-17
    price $174,900
11. 2024-01-04
    listed $175,900 New
12. 2022-10-19
    soldstatus $160,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $387 · $32/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,610 · $134/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,223/yr (+$102/mo · 315.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 53% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,312
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$387
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,865
• − Management: −$1,865
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $3,426
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$822
• After-tax cash flow: $5,319/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pike County
• NCES district ID: 1304170
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $53,484
• Composite: 29.84/100
• National rank: #6414
• State rank: #64 of 174 in GA

Livability — Zebulon

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #463
• US rank: #21949

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Zebulon, GA
• Population (ZIP): 5,424

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,433 people
• By 2030: 18,537 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 18,371 · -0.3%
• By 2050: 17,676 · -4.1%
• By 2075: 15,564 · -15.6%
• By 2100: 12,317 · -33.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+73.4) · D 13.1% · R 86.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.8pp toward R · 2008: -60.6pp · 2024: -73.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+73.4 2020: R+71.1 2016: R+69.6 2012: R+65.5 2008: R+60.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.86%
• Current HPI: 255.5473
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+9.4% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-11 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2025-09-28 Listed $175,000 GAMLS
• 2025-09-28 Listed $175,000 GAMLS
• 2024-06-13 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records
• 2024-06-04 Sold (MLS) $155,000 GAMLS
• 2024-05-20 Contingent — GAMLS
• 2024-04-26 Price Changed $155,000 GAMLS
• 2024-04-02 Price Changed $167,000 GAMLS
• 2024-02-17 Price Changed $174,900 GAMLS
• 2024-01-04 Listed $175,900 GAMLS
• 2022-10-19 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $387 · -2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.