5052 S Colony Blvd · The Colony, TX 75056

$244,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,703 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 473 Days on market

Built 1974 6,899 sqft lot $144/sqft · 29% below area Est $344k · 29% under ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This property features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms

Key facts

• 6,899 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1974

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $78 ($934/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $244k (0.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 2.9% in The Colony — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#464 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lewisville ISD (suburban): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #109 of 826 in TX (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 438 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 473 days — a 12% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $41k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 24% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $215,556 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 473 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.36%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $343,612
• List price: $244,950
• Delta: -28.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5036 Avery Ln	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,699 (-0%)	3mo	$349,900	$206	93
5220 Bartlett Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,791 (+5%)	0mo	$350,000	$195	78
5136 S Colony Blvd	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,791 (+5%)	6mo	$325,000	$181	77
5040 S Colony Blvd	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,460 (-14%)	2mo	$290,000	$199	73
5013 Middleton Cir	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,699 (-0%)	6mo	$375,000	$221	73
4813 Arbor Glen Rd	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,848 (+8%)	0mo	$325,000	$176	62
5229 Cook Cir	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,496 (-12%)	1mo	$330,000	$221	62
5517 Longhorn Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,805 (+6%)	2mo	$425,000	$235	60
5208 Knox Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,488 (-13%)	1mo	$275,000	$185	51
5333 Norris Dr	0.73mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,726 (+1%)	6mo	$325,000	$188	50
5024 Pemberton Ln	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,946 (+14%)	2mo	$349,777	$180	48
5108 Shannon Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,480 (-13%)	0mo	$295,000	$199	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-41,745
• Equity at exit: $36,523

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-57,034
• Equity at exit: $21,179

Cash invested: $68,586 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75056

• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 438
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,437 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$461 /mo · $5,531/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$512
• Net cashflow: $78

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,339

Max offer price $244,950

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $217	-5% $147	+0% $78	+5% $9	+10% $-61
Rent	-10% $-115	-5% $-18	+0% $78	+5% $174	+10% $270
Rate	-1.0pp $201	-0.5pp $140	base $78	+0.5pp $14	+1.0pp $-50

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,238
• Closing costs: $7,348
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5033 Avery Ln The Colony, TX	4.0	2.0	1904	$2,395	$1.26	8d	1	0.09mi
5033 Avery Ln The Colony, TX	4.0	2.0	1856	$2,395	$1.29	4d	1	0.09mi
5101 Aztec Dr The Colony, TX	3.0	2.0	1379	$2,250	$1.63	45d	1	0.15mi
4905 Avery Pl The Colony, TX	3.0	2.0	1699	$2,500	$1.47	45d	1	0.23mi
4913 Alta Oaks Ln The Colony, TX	3.0	2.0	1738	$2,156	$1.24	45d	1	0.25mi
5161 Bartlett Dr The Colony, TX	4.0	2.0	1856	$2,700	$1.45	45d	1	0.28mi
5160 S Colony Blvd The Colony, TX	4.0	2.0	2135	$2,495	$1.17	16d	1	0.28mi
4905 Avery Cir The Colony, TX	3.0	2.0	1460	$2,150	$1.47	18d	1	0.29mi
5060 Arbor Glen Rd The Colony, TX	3.0	2.0	1359	$2,050	$1.51	11d	1	0.38mi
4828 Alta Oaks Ln The Colony, TX	3.0	2.0	1699	$2,200	$1.29	45d	1	0.40mi
5225 Worley Dr The Colony, TX	3.0	2.0	1379	$2,100	$1.52	18d	1	0.41mi
5112 Arbor Glen Rd The Colony, TX	4.0	2.0	1850	$4,500	$2.43	45d	1	0.41mi
4805 Alta Oaks Ln The Colony, TX	4.0	3.0	1699	$6,500	$3.83	25d	1	0.44mi
5201 Marks Cir The Colony, TX	3.0	2.0	1339	$2,185	$1.63	0d	1	0.51mi
4808 Arbor Glen Rd The Colony, TX	4.0	2.0	1830	$2,495	$1.36	25d	1	0.52mi
5229 Goodman Dr The Colony, TX	3.0	2.0	1419	$2,300	$1.62	25d	1	0.53mi
5212 Knox Dr The Colony, TX	3.0	2.0	1379	$3,400	$2.47	25d	1	0.56mi
6108 Jennings Dr The Colony, TX	3.0	2.0	1946	$2,345	$1.21	45d	1	0.68mi
5524 Glenview Ln The Colony, TX	3.0	2.0	1906	$2,550	$1.34	45d	1	0.82mi
4777 Memorial Dr Unit 3121 The Colony, TX	3.0	2.0	1370	$2,353	$1.72	0d	1	0.84mi
4777 Memorial Dr Unit 4810 The Colony, TX	3.0	2.0	1281	$2,132	$1.66	45d	1	0.84mi
4777 Memorial Dr The Colony, TX	3.0	2.0	1370	$2,325	$1.70	13d	1	0.85mi
4520 Ridgepointe Dr The Colony, TX	3.0	2.0	1671	$2,425	$1.45	18d	1	0.86mi
4520 Ridgepointe Dr The Colony, TX	3.0	2.0	1671	$2,425	$1.45	11d	1	0.86mi
5634 Niagara Rd The Colony, TX	3.0	2.5	2220	$3,395	$1.53	45d	1	0.86mi
6325 Camey Place Way The Colony, TX	3.0	2.5	1895	$3,450	$1.82	6d	1	0.87mi
5608 Stewarts Creek Ct The Colony, TX	3.0	2.5	2128	$3,800	$1.79	20d	1	0.91mi
4716 Roberts Dr The Colony, TX	3.0	2.0	1881	$2,695	$1.43	8d	1	0.92mi
4933 Ashlock Dr The Colony, TX	3.0	2.0	1795	$2,195	$1.22	22d	1	0.98mi
4933 Ashlock Dr The Colony, TX	4.0	2.0	1795	$2,195	$1.22	25d	1	0.98mi
5620 S Colony Blvd The Colony, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	990	$2,274	$2.30	0d	24	0.99mi
5217 Gates Dr The Colony, TX	3.0	2.0	1335	$2,175	$1.63	4d	1	1.00mi
6415 Day Spring Dr The Colony, TX	4.0	2.0	2175	$3,000	$1.38	20d	1	1.04mi
4521 Highridge Dr The Colony, TX	3.0	2.0	1644	$2,340	$1.42	45d	1	1.04mi
4916 N Colony Blvd The Colony, TX	3.0	2.0	1755	$2,200	$1.25	20d	1	1.06mi
5529 Gates Dr The Colony, TX	3.0	2.0	1379	$2,150	$1.56	16d	1	1.06mi
5300 Slay Dr The Colony, TX	3.0	2.0	1339	$2,150	$1.61	22d	1	1.08mi
5632 Overland Dr Unit NA The Colony, TX	3.0	2.0	1772	$2,400	$1.35	0d	1	1.10mi
5632 Overland Dr The Colony, TX	3.0	2.0	1772	$2,449	$1.38	0d	1	1.10mi
6399 Morning Star Dr Unit 3121 The Colony, TX	3.0	2.0	1292	$1,840	$1.42	0d	1	1.11mi

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $244,950 Active 473 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $244,950 Active 470 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $244,950 Active 469 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $244,950 Active 468 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $244,950 Active 467 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $244,950 Active 465 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $244,950 Active 464 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $244,950 Active 461 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $244,950 Active 460 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $244,950 Active 459 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $244,950 Active 456 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $244,950 Active 455 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $244,950 Active 454 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $244,950 Active 453 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $244,950 Active 452 DOM
16. 2026-04-17
    price $244,950 49-char remark

    Show marketing remark (49 chars)

    This property features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms

17. 2025-09-18
    price $258,750 49-char remark

    Show marketing remark (49 chars)

    This property features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms

18. 2025-03-05
    listed $286,350 Active 49-char remark

    Show marketing remark (49 chars)

    This property features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms

19. 2024-08-30
    historical
20. 2024-05-31
    status Active
21. 2024-05-03
    status Pending
22. 2024-03-21
    listed $286,350 Active
23. 2021-12-20
    soldstatus
24. 2021-12-17
    soldstatus Sold
25. 2021-11-30
    status Pending
26. 2021-11-22
    historical Active Option Contract
27. 2021-11-16
    price $309,900
28. 2021-11-16
    status Active
29. 2021-11-09
    historical Active Option Contract
30. 2021-11-03
    listed $319,900 Active
31. 2002-04-11
    soldstatus
32. 1989-09-28
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,531 · $461/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,531 · $461/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 24% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,246
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,721
• − Property taxes: −$5,531
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,340
• − Management: −$2,340
• − Depreciation: −$7,126
• Taxable loss: −$3,036
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$729
• After-tax cash flow: $1,663/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lewisville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827300
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,351
• Composite: 47.1/100
• National rank: #2333
• State rank: #109 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Colony

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #464
• US rank: #9336

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Colony, TX
• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• City population: 69,628
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,628
• Household income: $119,682
• Rent vs Own: 40.6% rent · 59.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1704.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 18% Asian 17% Two or more races 13% Black 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 5% Other Asian/Pacific 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -235.14%
• Current HPI: 288.9388
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.02%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-23.4% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $244,950 HARMLS
• 2025-09-18 Price Changed $258,750 HARMLS
• 2025-03-05 Listed $286,350 HARMLS
• 2024-08-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-05-31 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2024-05-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-03-21 Listed $286,350 HARMLS
• 2021-12-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-12-17 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2021-11-30 Pending — NTREIS
• 2021-11-22 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2021-11-16 Price Changed $309,900 NTREIS
• 2021-11-16 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2021-11-09 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2021-11-03 Listed $319,900 NTREIS
• 2002-04-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1989-09-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,531 · -9.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.