475 5th St · Tracy, MN 56175

$75,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · SingleFamily · 114 Days on market

Built 1920 9,000 sqft lot $42/sqft · 52% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 9,000 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1920

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $492 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#170 in MN, #3,680 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 91 units permitted in Lyon County in 2024 (72 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lyon County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $68,250 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.80% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.11%
• DSCR: 2.25
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $157,585
• List price: $75,000
• Delta: -52.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.92×
• Total profit: $19,227
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.73×
• Total profit: $57,297
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56175

• Home prices YoY: -22.1%
• Active inventory: 20
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,347 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$147 /mo · $1,768/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$283
• Net cashflow: $492

Break-even live

Break-even rent $724

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $534	-5% $513	+0% $492	+5% $471	+10% $449
Rent	-10% $385	-5% $439	+0% $492	+5% $545	+10% $598
Rate	-1.0pp $530	-0.5pp $511	base $492	+0.5pp $472	+1.0pp $453

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $75,000 Active 114 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 113 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 112 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 111 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 110 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $75,000 Active 108 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $75,000 Active 107 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 103 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $75,000 Active 102 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $75,000 Active 100 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $75,000 Active 98 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 97 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 96 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 95 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 94 DOM
16. 2026-05-01
    status Active
17. 2026-04-30
    historical
18. 2026-02-22
    listed $75,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,768 · $147/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,768 · $147/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,158
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,768
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,293
• − Management: −$1,293
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $5,047
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,211
• After-tax cash flow: $4,691/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Tracy

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #170
• US rank: #3680

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tracy, MN
• Population (ZIP): 2,791

Population outlook (Lyon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 25,369 people
• By 2030: 24,890 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 23,599 · -7.0%
• By 2050: 22,383 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 20,076 · -20.9%
• By 2100: 18,901 · -25.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 7% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 16% Romanian 4% English 4%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Lyon

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.8) · D 33.1% · R 64.9% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.2pp toward R · 2008: -1.6pp · 2024: -31.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.8 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+28.3 2012: R+9.2 2008: R+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -47.45%
• Current HPI: 167.4911
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-22 Listed $75,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+9.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,768 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.