Messina Plan · Manvel, TX 77578

$318,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,149 sqft · SingleFamily · 226 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.1/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The 2-story, Messina duet home has a welcoming foyer with high ceilings and clear sightlines to the kitchen and breakfast area. The great room boasts 11-foot ceilings and tall windows overlooking the covered patio with cathedral ceiling for ample natural light. The private primary suite includes soaring ceilings and a luxurious bath with soaking tub and shower or oversized, easy-entry shower. A mud room with bench leads to the 2-car garage. Upstairs, a loft and secondary bedrooms complete the home.

Key facts

• Welcoming foyer
• Luxurious bath
• Covered patio

Tags

• WELCOMING FOYER
• GREAT ROOM
• COVERED PATIO
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• LUXURIOUS BATH
• MUD ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $318,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $484,622.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $319k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $283k (11.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $281k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 3.5% vs local median 2.6% in Manvel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#544 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 1732 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 144d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 226 days — a 12% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $280,711 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 226 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.87%
• DSCR: 0.56
• GRM: 14.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $484,622
• List price: $318,990
• Delta: -34.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5002 Morrison Dr	0.29mi	4/3.0	2,234 (+4%)	2mo	$399,900	$179	78
4946 Hitchings Ct	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,141 (-0%)	3mo	$336,000	$157	67
5319 Murillo Dr	0.70mi	4/3.0	2,262 (+5%)	2mo	$419,990	$186	57
6019 Renoir Ln	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,172 (+1%)	1mo	$399,990	$184	56
5303 Palo Verde Dr	0.56mi	4/2.5	1,910 (-11%)	1mo	$340,000	$178	52
5326 Murillo Dr	0.71mi	4/3.0	2,360 (+10%)	2mo	$414,990	$176	49
5821 Lavaca Ln	0.69mi	4/3.0	2,407 (+12%)	1mo	$395,000	$164	47
5307 Getty Ln	0.73mi	4/3.5	2,368 (+10%)	1mo	$444,386	$188	46
5322 Murillo Dr	0.71mi	4/3.0	2,455 (+14%)	0mo	$420,000	$171	43
10115 Palm Springs Pl	0.60mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,878 (-13%)	2mo	$350,000	$186	42
10107 Palm Springs Pl	0.59mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,866 (-13%)	2mo	$330,000	$177	42
5235 Palo Verde Dr	0.56mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,838 (-14%)	3mo	$325,000	$177	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-150,226
• Equity at exit: $72,259

10-year hold

• IRR: -45.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.66×
• Total profit: $-224,842
• Equity at exit: $41,901

Cash invested: $135,694 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 268 active · 80 under contract
• Months of supply: 23.3 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $424,945 ($194/sqft)
• Median days on market: 159 d
• This list price: 4% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +16.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77578

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 1732
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,827 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,541
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$606 /mo · $7,269/yr
• Insurance: −$202
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$594
• Net cashflow: $-1,116

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,239

Max offer price $323,117

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-781	-5% $-949	+0% $-1,116	+5% $-1,284	+10% $-1,451
Rent	-10% $-1,339	-5% $-1,228	+0% $-1,116	+5% $-1,004	+10% $-893
Rate	-1.0pp $-872	-0.5pp $-993	base $-1,116	+0.5pp $-1,242	+1.0pp $-1,369

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $121,155
• Closing costs: $14,539
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5123 Morrison Dr Unit Labs Manvel, TX	4.0	3.0	2209	$2,800	$1.27	29d	1	0.26mi
9623 Wright Dr Manvel, TX	4.0	3.0	2548	$3,600	$1.41	165d	1	0.36mi
5714 Caracara St Arcola, TX	3.0	2.0	2518	$2,750	$1.09	143d	1	0.43mi
10035 Crescendo Way Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1446	$2,275	$1.57	115d	1	0.56mi
10327 Armstrong Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1956	$2,291	$1.17	184d	1	1.41mi
4143 Champlain Way Iowa Colony, TX	3.0	3.0	1839	$2,400	$1.31	10d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $318,990 Active 226 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $318,990 Active 225 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $318,990 Active 224 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $318,990 Active 223 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $318,990 Active 222 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $318,990 Active 220 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $318,990 Active 219 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   pricedays on market $318,990 Active 218 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $338,990 Active 217 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $338,990 Active 216 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $338,990 Active 215 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $338,990 Active 214 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $338,990 Active 213 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $338,990 Active 212 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $338,990 Active 211 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $338,990 Active 210 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $338,990 Active 209 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $338,990 Active 208 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $338,990 Active 207 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $338,990 Active 206 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $338,990 Active 205 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $338,990 Active 204 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $338,990 Active 203 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $338,990 Active 202 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $338,990 Active 201 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $338,990 Active 200 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $338,990 Active 199 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $338,990 Active 198 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $338,990 Active 197 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $338,990 Active 196 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $338,990 Active 195 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $338,990 Active 194 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $338,990 Active 193 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $338,990 Active 192 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $338,990 Active 191 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $338,990 Active 190 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $338,990 Active 189 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $338,990 Active 188 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $338,990 Active 187 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $338,990 Active 186 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $338,990 Active 185 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $338,990 Active 184 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $338,990 Active 183 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $338,990 Active 182 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $338,990 Active 181 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $338,990 Active 180 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $338,990 Active 179 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $338,990 Active 178 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $338,990 Active 177 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $338,990 Active 176 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,919
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,146
• − Property taxes: −$7,269
• − Insurance: −$2,423
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,714
• − Management: −$2,714
• − Depreciation: −$14,098
• Taxable loss: −$22,445
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,387
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,007/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This 2-story Messina duet home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a high-end finish and is move-in ready.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in kitchen and bathrooms — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New bathroom fixtures — Enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alvin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808090
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $66,740
• Composite: 38.96/100
• National rank: #4080
• State rank: #255 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 67/100

Livability — Manvel

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #544
• US rank: #10576

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Manvel, TX
• County: Brazoria County · 420,414 people
• City population: 30,210
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,210
• Household income: $134,016
• Rent vs Own: 16.9% rent · 83.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

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Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Black 30% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 15% Asian 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 13% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Vietnamese 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.15%
• Current HPI: 218.4264
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $361,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-27 Listed $358,990 Zillow