4925 Sandra Bay Dr #201 · Pelican Marsh, FL 34109

$298,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,377 sqft · Condo public records · 491 Days on market

Built 2004 $410/mo HOA · 13% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

End-Unit with a lake view. Owner installed impact windows and an electric shutter for the slider. Spacious condo with high ceilings. Den has a window. AC was changed the three years ago. Condo has a carport and an assigned parking space. Close to community pool. Community has low maintenance fees. Many grocery stores (Publix, Seed to Table, Super Walmart) in walking distance.

Key facts

• Low maintenance fees
• Community pool
• Electric shutter

Tags

• LAKE VIEW
• IMPACT WINDOWS
• ELECTRIC SHUTTER
• HIGH CEILINGS
• COMMUNITY POOL
• LOW MAINTENANCE FEES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Mandatory homeowners association; Quarterly HOA fee of $1,230 (total annual recurring fees $4,920); Professional management; HOA maintenance covers cable, irrigation water, lawn/land maintenance, legal/accounting, exterior pest control, recreation facilities, reserves, sewer, street lights, street maintenance, trash removal, and water; Community pool and picnic/BBQ area; Non-gated community

Exterior

• Parking: 1 assigned parking space; Guest parking available; Detached 1-car carport
• Security: Impact resistant doors; Electric shutters; Storm protection
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Residential end-unit; Low-rise building (1–3 stories); Rear exposure to the west; Built in 2004; Part of the Bermuda Palms development
• Construction: Concrete block construction; Stucco exterior; Tile roof; Built in 2004; End unit
• Exterior features: Lake view / waterfront on a lake; Pond; Water feature; Screened balcony; Paved private road; Deeded property restrictions; Limited number of vehicles allowed

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator/Freezer; Breakfast bar; Breakfast room / dining area
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms plus den; Split bedroom layout
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with combo tub/shower and dual sinks
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Closet cabinets; High-speed internet available; Smoke detectors; Vaulted ceiling; Great room / open floor plan; Den (study); Screened balcony; Turnkey furnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in residence; Laundry area inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $298k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $193 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $298k).
• Recommended offer: $262k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 424 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $879 appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 491 days — a 12% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $118k; list at $298k implies a 154% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $262,240 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 491 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.77%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.29% appreciation · 0.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $1,420
• Equity at exit: $90,950

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $36,154
• Equity at exit: $112,919

Cash invested: $83,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34109

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 424
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,167 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,563
• Tax from tax record: −$212 /mo · $2,545/yr
• Insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$410
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$665
• Net cashflow: $193

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,923

Max offer price $298,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,500
• Closing costs: $8,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4910 Cougar Ct N Unit 1-205 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1377	$2,050	$1.49	14d	1	0.03mi
4945 Cougar Ct S #105 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1377	$2,750	$2.00	14d	1	0.06mi
5000 Immokalee Rd Naples, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1115	$3,186	$2.86	14d	68	0.09mi
4940 Cougar Ct S Unit 1545947P Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1367	$2,185	$1.60	14d	1	0.09mi
4965 Sandra Bay Dr #102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1377	$2,200	$1.60	14d	1	0.11mi
4950 Deerfield Way #202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1388	$2,000	$1.44	21d	1	0.14mi
4960 Deerfield Way Unit E102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1202	$4,250	$3.54	14d	1	0.16mi
4970 Deerfield Way Unit F-203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1388	$1,990	$1.43	14d	1	0.17mi
4910 Deerfield Way #103 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$4,800	$4.00	21d	1	0.20mi
4910 Deerfield Way Unit A-203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1388	$5,500	$3.96	14d	1	0.20mi
5045 Cedar Springs Dr #103 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1202	$5,000	$4.16	23d	1	0.21mi
5045 Cedar Springs Dr #203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1427	$4,200	$2.94	23d	1	0.21mi
5025 Cedar Springs Dr #102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1202	$1,590	$1.32	14d	1	0.22mi
5025 Cedar Springs Dr #102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.5	1202	$3,510	$2.92	23d	1	0.22mi
4680 Saint Croix Ln Naples, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	931	$2,000	$2.15	14d	2	0.23mi
4710 Saint Croix Ln #217 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1045	$2,200	$2.11	23d	1	0.23mi
4680 Saint Croix Ln #512 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1196	$2,490	$2.08	23d	1	0.23mi
4720 Saint Croix Ln #137 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,200	$1.83	23d	1	0.29mi
4650 Saint Croix Ln #725 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	913	$2,150	$2.35	14d	1	0.29mi
4620 Saint Croix Ln Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	982	$1,800	$1.83	14d	2	0.31mi
4610 Saint Croix Ln #1027 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1196	$4,000	$3.34	23d	1	0.32mi
5145 Cobble Creek Ct #202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1798	$2,600	$1.45	21d	1	0.34mi
4635 Saint Croix Ln #1214 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	913	$1,900	$2.08	14d	1	0.35mi
5105 Cedar Springs Dr #101 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1650	$7,000	$4.24	23d	1	0.35mi
15145 Palmer Lake Cir #103 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1571	$7,000	$4.46	23d	1	0.37mi
15144 Palmer Lake Cir #102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1375	$6,500	$4.73	23d	1	0.40mi
5330 Andover Dr #102 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1740	$2,550	$1.47	23d	1	0.40mi
5325 Andover Dr #101 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1654	$5,250	$3.17	23d	1	0.44mi
15126 Palmer Lake Cir Naples, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1254	$3,000	$2.39	23d	2	0.48mi
5455 Worthington Ln #202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1427	$3,900	$2.73	23d	1	0.51mi
5455 Worthington Ln #103 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1202	$5,000	$4.16	23d	1	0.51mi
300 Diamond Cir #302 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1755	$2,600	$1.48	23d	1	0.53mi
194 Wickliffe Dr Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1798	$3,500	$1.95	23d	1	0.54mi
5657 Whisperwood Blvd #204 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1793	$6,000	$3.35	23d	1	0.54mi
5645 Whisperwood Blvd #504 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1793	$6,000	$3.35	23d	1	0.55mi
5632 Whisperwood Blvd #1601 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1856	$8,000	$4.31	23d	1	0.56mi
5935 Northridge Dr Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1671	$2,995	$1.79	23d	1	0.59mi
600 Diamond Cir #607 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1680	$4,800	$2.86	23d	1	0.63mi
10805 Queen Anne Ln #203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1252	$4,800	$3.83	23d	1	0.66mi
700 Diamond Cir #706 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1786	$2,700	$1.51	23d	1	0.68mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $410 · $4,920/yr
• Likely covers: electricpoolparking
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $298,000 Active 491 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $298,000 Active 490 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $298,000 Active 489 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $298,000 Active 488 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $298,000 Active 483 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $298,000 Active 482 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $298,000 Active 481 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $298,000 Active 480 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   remarks 378-char remark
10. 2026-06-03
    listed $298,000 Active 475 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,545 · $212/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,545 · $212/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 2/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 3% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,001
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,693
• − Property taxes: −$2,545
• − Insurance: −$1,490
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,040
• − Management: −$3,040
• − HOA: −$4,920
• − Depreciation: −$8,669
• Taxable loss: −$2,396
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$575
• After-tax cash flow: $2,888/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pelican Marsh

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 27,273
• Household income: $92,259
• Rent vs Own: 33.3% rent · 66.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1712.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.29%
• Current HPI: 279.357
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.92%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+6.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $298,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-05-05 Price Changed $330,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-02-12 Listed $348,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2009-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $117,500 Public Records
• 2006-07-07 Sold (Public Records) $279,900 Public Records
• 2006-03-29 Listed $279,500 FORTMLS

Property tax history

+8.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,545 · +6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.