2500 Centennial Rd #410 · Bismarck, ND 58503

$49,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,424 sqft · Manufactured · 107 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1990 Est $78k · 37% under ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Double wide mobile home located in a highly desired NE Park! Very clean well cared for home with 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Home is sunny and bright with neutral decor and new paint throughout. Great kitchen with an abundance of cabinetry and a large amount of counter top space. The laundry room is conveniently located off the kitchen with a stackable washer and dryer that is included with the home. Primary suite has a large walk in closet and an attached bath with a recently installed walk in shower. There is an additional 2 bedrooms and full bath located on the opposite side of the home. The 8X10 attached back entryway had new shingles, siding, and subfloor installed in 2017. The very private backyard deck is the perfect place for your morning coffee! The yard is gorgeous with a several perennials and garden beds! There is also a large 10X12 Garden shed with vinyl siding and a double concrete parking pad. Call today to set up a private showing!

Key facts

• Ne bismarck location
• Blooming flowerbeds
• Mature shade trees

Tags

• NE BISMARCK LOCATION
• QUICK ACCESS TO INTERSTATE 94
• SERENE BACKYARD
• BLOOMING FLOWERBEDS
• MATURE SHADE TREES
• GARDEN SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $49k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $49k).
• Recommended offer: $45k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 36.1% vs local median 3.1% in Bismarck — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#5 in ND, #2,213 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, amenities D+, commute F.
• Bismarck 1 (urban): math 41% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #25 of 53 in ND (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Robert Place Miller Elementary School (math 42% / reading 37%, grade F, #137 of 236 statewide, top 63%, 479 students, 36% FRL); Simle Middle School (math 34% / reading 39%, grade F, #22 of 35 statewide, top 62%, 1,040 students, 20% FRL); Legacy High School (math 20% / reading 37%, grade F, #104 of 144 statewide, top 72%, 1,418 students, 16% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.8%/yr); 486 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 259 units permitted in Burleigh County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $339 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burleigh County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($45k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $44,590 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.95% ✓
• Cap rate: 36.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 106.52%
• DSCR: 5.74
• GRM: 2.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $78,320
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2500 Centennial Rd #410	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,424 (0%)	1mo	$49,000	$34	100
2500 Centennial Rd #244	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,446 (+2%)	5mo	$60,000	$41	94
2500 Centennial Rd Lot 240	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,280 (-10%)	2mo	$45,900	$36	71
4117 W Arlington Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,280 (-10%)	1mo	$49,900	$39	70
4303 Patriot Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,280 (-10%)	4mo	$64,900	$51	64
4337 Drake Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+10%)	4mo	$86,000	$55	63
4206 Patriot Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-15%)	2mo	$79,900	$66	60
4602 Gates Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+10%)	1mo	$135,900	$87	53
4634 Gates Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+10%)	0mo	$135,000	$86	53
4501 Gates Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+10%)	9mo	$140,000	$89	51
4755 British Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-15%)	1mo	$54,000	$44	42
4773 British Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-15%)	8mo	$115,000	$95	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.82×
• Total profit: $79,857
• Equity at exit: $7,306

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 16.74×
• Total profit: $215,970
• Equity at exit: $4,237

Cash invested: $13,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Dakota: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 58503

• Home prices YoY: -25.6%
• Rents YoY: 11.8%
• Active inventory: 486
• Price-to-rent: 2.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,933 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$257
• Tax from tax record: −$32 /mo · $385/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $1,218

Break-even live

Break-even rent $392

Max offer price $49,000

Occupancy floor 32%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,246	-5% $1,232	+0% $1,218	+5% $1,204	+10% $1,190
Rent	-10% $1,065	-5% $1,142	+0% $1,218	+5% $1,294	+10% $1,371
Rate	-1.0pp $1,243	-0.5pp $1,230	base $1,218	+0.5pp $1,205	+1.0pp $1,192

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,250
• Closing costs: $1,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3504 French St Bismarck, ND	2.0	1.5	966	$1,795	$1.86	23d	1	0.60mi
3103 E Calgary Ave Bismarck, ND	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1079	$1,860	$1.72	23d	6	0.93mi
1511 Sharloh Loop Bismarck, ND	3.0	2.5	1728	$2,050	$1.19	23d	1	0.96mi
3009 43rd Ave NE Bismarck, ND	3.0	1.0–2.0	1051	$2,024	$1.93	23d	22	1.34mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-04-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-01
   listed $49,000 Active
3. 2025-09-06
   price $67,500
4. 2025-09-03
   price $74,000
5. 2025-08-11
   price $75,000
6. 2025-07-28
   price $79,000
7. 2025-07-21
   price $79,900
8. 2025-07-07
   price $80,000
9. 2025-07-01
   price $81,500
10. 2022-08-05
    soldstatus 965-char remark

    Show marketing remark (965 chars)

    Double wide mobile home located in a highly desired NE Park! Very clean well cared for home with 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Home is sunny and bright with neutral decor and new paint throughout. Great kitchen with an abundance of cabinetry and a large amount of counter top space. The laundry room is conveniently located off the kitchen with a stackable washer and dryer that is included with the home. Primary suite has a large walk in closet and an attached bath with a recently installed walk in shower. There is an additional 2 bedrooms and full bath located on the opposite side of the home. The 8X10 attached back entryway had new shingles, siding, and subfloor installed in 2017. The very private backyard deck is the perfect place for your morning coffee! The yard is gorgeous with a several perennials and garden beds! There is also a large 10X12 Garden shed with vinyl siding and a double concrete parking pad. Call today to set up a private showing!

11. 2022-06-06
    listed $55,000 965-char remark

    Show marketing remark (965 chars)

    Double wide mobile home located in a highly desired NE Park! Very clean well cared for home with 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Home is sunny and bright with neutral decor and new paint throughout. Great kitchen with an abundance of cabinetry and a large amount of counter top space. The laundry room is conveniently located off the kitchen with a stackable washer and dryer that is included with the home. Primary suite has a large walk in closet and an attached bath with a recently installed walk in shower. There is an additional 2 bedrooms and full bath located on the opposite side of the home. The 8X10 attached back entryway had new shingles, siding, and subfloor installed in 2017. The very private backyard deck is the perfect place for your morning coffee! The yard is gorgeous with a several perennials and garden beds! There is also a large 10X12 Garden shed with vinyl siding and a double concrete parking pad. Call today to set up a private showing!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ND · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $385 · $32/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $480 · $40/mo
• Expected delta: +$95/yr (+$8/mo · 24.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,745
• − Property taxes: −$385
• − Insurance: −$245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,856
• − Management: −$1,856
• − Depreciation: −$1,425
• Taxable income: $14,688
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,525
• After-tax cash flow: $11,090/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bismarck 1
• NCES district ID: 3800014
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $60,649
• Composite: 36.76/100
• National rank: #4577
• State rank: #25 of 53 in ND

Livability — Bismarck

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #2213

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bismarck, ND
• County: Burleigh County · 97,300 people
• City population: 97,300
• Metro: Bismarck, ND
• Population (ZIP): 37,683
• Household income: $102,333
• Rent vs Own: 25.7% rent · 74.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 814.0

Population outlook (Burleigh County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 119,359 people
• By 2030: 133,047 · +11.5%
• By 2040: 161,545 · +35.3%
• By 2050: 191,960 · +60.8%
• By 2075: 274,569 · +130.0%
• By 2100: 350,910 · +194.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 17% Scotch-Irish 4% Scottish 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Burleigh

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.2) · D 27.5% · R 70.7% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.7pp toward R · 2008: -23.6pp · 2024: -43.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.2 2020: R+40.2 2016: R+46.1 2012: R+32.1 2008: R+23.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.96%
• Current HPI: 223.9683
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.79%
• Metro: Bismarck, ND
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ND)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities / Construction	1	$6B

Price history

-10.9% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Pending — GNMLS
• 2026-01-01 Listed $49,000 GNMLS
• 2025-09-06 Price Changed $67,500 GNMLS
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $74,000 GNMLS
• 2025-08-11 Price Changed $75,000 GNMLS
• 2025-07-28 Price Changed $79,000 GNMLS
• 2025-07-21 Price Changed $79,900 GNMLS
• 2025-07-07 Price Changed $80,000 GNMLS
• 2025-07-01 Price Changed $81,500 GNMLS
• 2022-08-05 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 2022-06-06 Listed $55,000 GNMLS