1258 Mill Lake Quarter · Chesapeake, VA 23320

$299,700

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,301 sqft · Townhouse public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1984 Est $397k · 24% under · waterfront $31/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully maintained LAKE FRONT townhome located in the highly sought-after Greenbrier neighborhood. The main level offers a bright eat-in kitchen with stainless steel appliances and granite countertops, a spacious great room with a cozy fireplace, French doors opening to a private, fenced backyard with wood patio, storage shed, and BEAUTIFUL LAKE VIEW - great for relaxing or entertaining. A convenient half bath and large walk-in hall closet complete the first floor. Upstairs features two generous, light-filled bedrooms, each with walk-in closets, and double-entry bath with two sinks. Enjoy community amenities such as lakefront walking trails, playground, and a fishing dock. Conveniently

Key facts

• Wood patio
• Lake front
• Community amenities

Tags

• LAKE FRONT
• PRIVATE FENCED BACKYARD
• WOOD PATIO
• LAKE VIEW
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• WALKING TRAILS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of Greenbrier Property Owners Association; HOA/POA fee approximately $31 per month; Condo/POA amenities: dock and playgrounds

Exterior

• Parking: Two off-street parking spaces (driveway)
• Utilities: City/County water; City/County sewer; Electric water heater; Electric power
• Home design: Attached townhouse; Two-story
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding; Asphalt shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Patio; Back yard with privacy wood fence; Storage shed; Waterfront: on a lake; Community amenities include dock and playgrounds

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator; Breakfast area
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms not located on the first floor
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Wood
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fan; Wood-burning fireplace; Scuttle (attic) access; Walk-in closet; Window treatments; Dual-entry bathroom between bedrooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup; Washer included; Dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-85 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $285k (5.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $236k (21.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $236k (21.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.7% in Chesapeake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#236 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, cost of living C-, amenities F.
• Chesapeake City Public School District (suburban): math 58% / reading 74% proficiency, ranked #31 of 131 in VA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Greenbrier Primary (676 students, 38% FRL); Greenbrier Middle (math 48% / reading 70%, grade B, #166 of 342 statewide, top 50%, 827 students, 42% FRL); Indian River High (math 69% / reading 73%, grade B+, #146 of 319 statewide, top 47%, 1,701 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 28% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.8%/yr); 286 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 597 units permitted in Chesapeake city in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chesapeake County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $132k; list at $300k implies a 126% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $236,119 (21.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.21%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $396,935
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1258 Mill Lake Quarter	0.00mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,301 (0%)	1mo	$294,000	$226	92
1262 Mill Lake Quarter	0.01mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,301 (0%)	1mo	$326,500	$251	92
1313 River Birch Run S	0.21mi	3/2.5	1,280 (-2%)	2mo	$275,000	$215	84
1219 Mill Stream Way	0.10mi	3/1.5	1,240 (-5%)	2mo	$230,000	$185	83
1217 Cedar Mill Sq	0.14mi	3/1.5	1,240 (-5%)	2mo	$285,000	$230	82
929 Still Harbor Cir	0.58mi	3/1.5	1,216 (-6%)	2mo	$225,650	$186	59
1309 Quail Creek Holw Unit C	0.67mi	3/2.5	1,350 (+4%)	2mo	$295,000	$219	58
1321 Eagles Trace Path Unit E	0.63mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,360 (+4%)	1mo	$310,000	$228	57
942 Brigantine Ct	0.41mi	3/1.5	1,140 (-12%)	2mo	$289,900	$254	56
1309 Quail Creek Holw Unit B	0.67mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,380 (+6%)	3mo	$312,000	$226	51
1307 Eagles Trace Path Unit A	0.66mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,420 (+9%)	0mo	$315,000	$222	49
1307 Eagles Trace Path Unit C	0.66mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,141 (-12%)	0mo	$300,000	$263	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-42,091
• Equity at exit: $44,686

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $10,175
• Equity at exit: $25,913

Cash invested: $83,916 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23320

• Rents YoY: 7.8%
• Active inventory: 286
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,361 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,572
• Tax from tax record: −$222 /mo · $2,669/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$31
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$496
• Net cashflow: $-85

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,468

Max offer price $284,747

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $85	-5% $0	+0% $-85	+5% $-169	+10% $-254
Rent	-10% $-271	-5% $-178	+0% $-85	+5% $9	+10% $102
Rate	-1.0pp $66	-0.5pp $-8	base $-85	+0.5pp $-162	+1.0pp $-241

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,925
• Closing costs: $8,991
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1005 Scarlet Oak Ct S Chesapeake, VA	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,400	$1.71	25d	1	0.12mi
1301 Cypress Pl Chesapeake, VA	3.0	2.0	1204	$2,400	$1.99	6d	1	0.17mi
1301 Cypress Pl Chesapeake, VA	3.0	2.0	1204	$2,400	$1.99	25d	1	0.17mi
1315 River Birch Run S Chesapeake, VA	3.0	1.5	1244	$1,950	$1.57	14d	1	0.21mi
1315 River Birch Run S Chesapeake, VA	3.0	1.5	1244	$1,950	$1.57	6d	1	0.21mi
1140 Ivystone Sq Chesapeake, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1023	$2,651	$2.59	3d	26	0.30mi
1501 Carlton Dr Chesapeake, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1075	$2,565	$2.39	4d	11	0.45mi
935 Still Harbor Cir Chesapeake, VA	2.0	1.5	1064	$1,995	$1.88	3d	1	0.58mi
1321 Eagles Trace Path Unit B Chesapeake, VA	3.0	2.0	1591	$2,495	$1.57	19d	1	0.63mi
1121 Shoal Creek Trl Chesapeake, VA	3.0	2.5	1684	$2,400	$1.43	23d	1	0.67mi
1119 Shoal Creek Trl Chesapeake, VA	2.0	2.0	1500	$1,995	$1.33	14d	1	0.68mi
912 Saint Andrews Reach Unit A Chesapeake, VA	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,450	$1.88	14d	1	0.72mi
912 Saint Andrews Reach Unit A Chesapeake, VA	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,450	$1.88	25d	1	0.72mi
1533 Rollesby Way Chesapeake, VA	3.0	2.5	1870	$2,395	$1.28	9d	1	0.77mi
929 Wintercress Way Chesapeake, VA	3.0	1.0–2.0	898	$2,742	$3.05	6d	17	0.84mi
150 Coveside Ln Chesapeake, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1120	$2,779	$2.48	4d	29	0.86mi
1402 Poules Ln Chesapeake, VA	2.0	2.5	1384	$2,410	$1.74	25d	1	0.89mi
5872 Echingham Dr Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	2.5	1633	$2,595	$1.59	12d	1	0.98mi
2008 Fawnwood Cmn Chesapeake, VA	3.0	1.5	1131	$1,950	$1.72	25d	1	1.03mi
1924 Woodgate Arch Unit 1 Chesapeake, VA	2.0	2.5	1264	$1,850	$1.46	18d	1	1.10mi
1924 Woodgate Arch Chesapeake, VA	2.0	2.5	1264	$1,850	$1.46	19d	1	1.10mi
1537 Tallwood Cir Chesapeake, VA	3.0	2.5	1774	$2,495	$1.41	6d	1	1.28mi
1528 Tallwood Cir Chesapeake, VA	3.0	2.5	1715	$2,500	$1.46	25d	1	1.28mi
1167 Killington Arch Chesapeake, VA	2.0	2.5	1539	$1,951	$1.27	6d	1	1.29mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $31 · $372/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-07
   historical Active Under Contract
2. 2026-05-05
   price $299,700
3. 2026-04-22
   price $305,000
4. 2026-04-16
   listed $312,500 Active
5. 2016-03-23
   soldstatus $132,500
6. 2016-01-25
   status Under Contract
7. 2015-12-15
   listed $145,000 Active
8. 2000-04-27
   soldstatus $73,400

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,669 · $222/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,669 · $222/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,334
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,788
• − Property taxes: −$2,669
• − Insurance: −$1,498
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,267
• − Management: −$2,267
• − HOA: −$372
• − Depreciation: −$8,719
• Taxable loss: −$6,246
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,499
• After-tax cash flow: $483/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chesapeake City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100810
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 74% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $69,356
• Composite: 57.84/100
• National rank: #1047
• State rank: #31 of 131 in VA

Livability — Chesapeake

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #236
• US rank: #7942

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chesapeake, VA
• County: Chesapeake City · 253,091 people
• City population: 253,091
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• Population (ZIP): 59,108
• Household income: $84,305
• Rent vs Own: 35.5% rent · 64.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2714.0

Population outlook (Chesapeake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 263,804 people
• By 2030: 276,798 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 299,906 · +13.7%
• By 2050: 318,284 · +20.7%
• By 2075: 362,137 · +37.3%
• By 2100: 372,225 · +41.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Black 29% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Tagalog/Filipino 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chesapeake

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.3% · R 47.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.5pp toward D · 2008: 1.3pp · 2024: 3.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+3.8 2020: D+6.5 2016: R+1.3 2012: D+1.1 2008: D+1.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -241.43%
• Current HPI: 285.5792
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.78%
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+308.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Contingent — REINMLS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $299,700 REINMLS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $305,000 REINMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $312,500 REINMLS
• 2016-03-23 Sold (Public Records) $132,500 Public Records
• 2016-01-25 Pending — REINMLS
• 2015-12-15 Listed $145,000 REINMLS
• 2000-04-27 Sold (Public Records) $73,400 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,669 · +8.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.