1938 W Lincoln Ave · Milwaukee, WI 53215

$149,500

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,824 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1911 3,049 sqft lot Est $235k · 36% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

All Brick two story building zoned Mixed Residential-Commercial. Has been owned by the same family for 58yrs! Currently being used as residential. However, the store front was a bakery many years ago & also a TV repair shop. Explore the endless opportunities. What will you make of it? The property does need quite a bit of updating. Put in the sweat equity & make it your own. One bedroom completed upstairs but finish it all & make a huge primary suite or ? Newer boiler & water heater. Updated electric. Newer overhead insulated garage door & electric door opener in the huge garage. Being sold AS IS but priced to sell!

Key facts

• Newer boiler
• Store front
• Bakery

Tags

• TWO STORY BUILDING
• STORE FRONT
• BAKERY
• TV REPAIR SHOP
• ONE BEDROOM COMPLETED
• NEWER BOILER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $336 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 5.1% in Milwaukee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#55 in WI, #1,534 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime F.
• Milwaukee School District (urban): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #337 of 342 in WI (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 57 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,017 units permitted in Milwaukee County in 2024 (803 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Milwaukee County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1911 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $149,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1911 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.63%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $235,296
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2402 S 20th St	0.15mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,764 (-3%)	1mo	$225,000	$128	78
2045 S 15th Pl	0.40mi	4/2.0	1,835 (+1%)	3mo	$200,000	$109	73
2612 S 20th St	0.41mi	4/2.0	1,761 (-4%)	9mo	$265,000	$150	64
2604 W Lincoln Ave	0.45mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,893 (+4%)	7mo	$250,000	$132	58
2026 S 14th St	0.54mi	4/2.0	1,870 (+2%)	11mo	$235,000	$126	57
2054 S 29th St	0.68mi	4/2.0	1,900 (+4%)	3mo	$245,000	$129	55
2546 S 13th St	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,749 (-4%)	2mo	$257,500	$147	54
1963 S 20th St	0.39mi	4/2.0	2,000 (+10%)	11mo	$270,000	$135	52
2143 S Layton Blvd	0.55mi	4/3.0	1,994 (+9%)	1mo	$200,000	$100	50
2921 W Hayes Ave	0.69mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,860 (+2%)	12mo	$250,000	$134	48
2444 S 29th St	0.65mi	4/1.0	1,595 (-13%)	7mo	$195,000	$122	43
2326 S 30th St	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,575 (-14%)	12mo	$122,000	$77	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.02% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $719
• Equity at exit: $22,291

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.04×
• Total profit: $43,334
• Equity at exit: $12,926

Cash invested: $41,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Wisconsin: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; Madison / Milwaukee have some local enforcement.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 53215

• Home prices YoY: -13.6%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,704 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$784
• Tax from tax record: −$164 /mo · $1,963/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$358
• Net cashflow: $336

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,278

Max offer price $149,500

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,375
• Closing costs: $4,485
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1812 S 7th St Milwaukee, WI	3.0	1.5	1703	$2,100	$1.23	23d	1	1.07mi
3174 S 22nd St Milwaukee, WI	3.0	2.0	1340	$1,850	$1.38	10d	1	1.14mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-13
   listed $149,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,963 · $164/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,364 · $197/mo
• Expected delta: +$401/yr (+$33/mo · 20.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,444
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,374
• − Property taxes: −$1,963
• − Insurance: −$748
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,635
• − Management: −$1,635
• − Depreciation: −$4,349
• Taxable income: $1,739
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$417
• After-tax cash flow: $3,615/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Milwaukee School District
• NCES district ID: 5509600
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $36,339
• Composite: 11.61/100
• National rank: #9696
• State rank: #337 of 342 in WI

Livability — Milwaukee

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #55
• US rank: #1534

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Milwaukee, WI
• County: Milwaukee County · 926,379 people
• City population: 573,768
• Metro: Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI
• Population (ZIP): 58,146
• Household income: $54,289
• Rent vs Own: 52.6% rent · 47.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 2283.0

Population outlook (Milwaukee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 995,758 people
• By 2030: 1,009,124 · +1.3%
• By 2040: 1,028,128 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 1,040,066 · +4.4%
• By 2075: 1,057,849 · +6.2%
• By 2100: 1,039,774 · +4.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 69% Two or more races 34% White 18% Asian 6% Black 5% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 52% Puerto Rican 12%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 31% · Canada, Philippines, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 35% English-only · Spanish 59% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Milwaukee

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.5) · D 68.3% · R 29.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.7pp toward D · 2008: 35.9pp · 2024: 38.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.5 2020: D+39.9 2016: D+37.5 2012: D+34.6 2008: D+35.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -52.55%
• Current HPI: 332.891
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.02%
• Metro: Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$23B
▸Industrial Technology	2	$36B
▸Insurance	1	$36B
▸Professional Services	1	$19B
▸Utilities	1	$9B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$3B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Pending — METROMLS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $149,500 METROMLS

Property tax history

-8.9%/yr

Latest (2016): $1,963 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.