4251 Old Brandon Rd · Pearl, MS 39208

$149,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 950 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1963 10,018 sqft lot $157/sqft · at area comps Est $146k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.9/30.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• ARV discount +6.6/15.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MOTIVATED SELLER ALERT!!! WHY PAY RENT WHEN YOU COULD OWN FOR LESS? Qualified buyers could pay ZERO down payment with assistance programs- Location is key! A minute away from Airport Road, check out this deal under $100K! Adorable and affordable home on an oversized lot is MOVE-IN ready with updated flooring and ceramic tile in the kitchen and bathroom! Newer roof and HVAC system as well. All 3 bedrooms are a great size. Don't miss this Pearl jewel while you are out house hunting! Call your favorite Realtor today to schedule an appointment.

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1963

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Carport (1 space); Concrete parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence (house); One story; Move-in ready
• Construction: Asbestos siding; Asphalt roof; Slab foundation; Built (year per public records)
• Exterior features: Back yard fencing (chain link); Fenced lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning (electric); Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Dead bolt lock(s); Storm door(s); Aluminum frame windows; Outside fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $138 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 5.5% in Pearl — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#19 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Pearl Public School District (suburban): math 44% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #32 of 130 in MS (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.3%/yr); 265 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 343 units permitted in Rankin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rankin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $144,530 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.56%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $146,142
• List price: $149,000
• Delta: 1.96%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4325 Autry St	0.07mi	3/1.0	982 (+3%)	16mo	$134,900	$137	78
4240 Herrington Blvd	0.24mi	3/1.0	950 (0%)	14mo	$114,900	$121	77
4131 Nancy St	0.26mi	3/1.0	892 (-6%)	2mo	$125,000	$140	76
4159 Dearing St	0.24mi	3/1.0	878 (-8%)	2mo	$125,000	$142	75
4141 Shelton St	0.33mi	3/1.0	899 (-5%)	9mo	$146,000	$162	68
4137 Shelton St	0.35mi	3/1.0	910 (-4%)	12mo	$94,900	$104	67
209 Areo Dr	0.53mi	3/1.0	988 (+4%)	3mo	$154,900	$157	66
4235 Herrington Blvd	0.25mi	3/1.0	1,015 (+7%)	16mo	$139,900	$138	64
4129 Shelton St	0.38mi	3/1.0	1,000 (+5%)	13mo	$159,999	$160	63
332 Lodi Dr	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,046 (+10%)	2mo	$174,900	$167	59
241 Baugh St	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,021 (+8%)	16mo	$165,000	$162	52
234 Baugh St	0.34mi	3/1.0	1,073 (+13%)	15mo	$42,400	$40	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.34% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-10,045
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $25,988
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39208

• Home prices YoY: -20.3%
• Rents YoY: 6.3%
• Active inventory: 265
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,524 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$98 /mo · $1,176/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$320
• Net cashflow: $138

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,350

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $222	-5% $180	+0% $138	+5% $95	+10% $53
Rent	-10% $17	-5% $77	+0% $138	+5% $198	+10% $258
Rate	-1.0pp $213	-0.5pp $175	base $138	+0.5pp $99	+1.0pp $60

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3569 Old Brandon Rd Pearl, MS	2.0	1.0	800	$1,135	$1.42	45d	1	0.93mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,000 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,000 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,000 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,000 Active 37 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $149,000 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,000 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,000 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $149,000 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $155,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $155,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,000 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $155,000 Active 23 DOM
15. 2026-05-07
    listed $155,000 Active 576-char remark
16. 2021-10-04
    historical
17. 2019-05-29
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (546 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLER ALERT!!! WHY PAY RENT WHEN YOU COULD OWN FOR LESS? Qualified buyers could pay ZERO down payment with assistance programs- Location is key! A minute away from Airport Road, check out this deal under $100K! Adorable and affordable home on an oversized lot is MOVE-IN ready with updated flooring and ceramic tile in the kitchen and bathroom! Newer roof and HVAC system as well. All 3 bedrooms are a great size. Don't miss this Pearl jewel while you are out house hunting! Call your favorite Realtor today to schedule an appointment.

18. 2019-03-05
    listed $85,000

    Show marketing remark (546 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLER ALERT!!! WHY PAY RENT WHEN YOU COULD OWN FOR LESS? Qualified buyers could pay ZERO down payment with assistance programs- Location is key! A minute away from Airport Road, check out this deal under $100K! Adorable and affordable home on an oversized lot is MOVE-IN ready with updated flooring and ceramic tile in the kitchen and bathroom! Newer roof and HVAC system as well. All 3 bedrooms are a great size. Don't miss this Pearl jewel while you are out house hunting! Call your favorite Realtor today to schedule an appointment.

19. 2006-03-10
    soldstatus
20. 2000-02-01
    listed $47,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,176 · $98/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,177 · $98/mo
• Expected delta: +$1/yr ($0/mo · 0.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone A · 49% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,292
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$1,176
• − Insurance: −$2,248
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,463
• − Management: −$1,463
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable loss: −$739
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$177
• After-tax cash flow: $1,828/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pearl Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2803520
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $42,525
• Composite: 36.29/100
• National rank: #4699
• State rank: #32 of 130 in MS

Livability — Pearl

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #5662

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pearl, MS
• County: Rankin County · 123,614 people
• City population: 34,442
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 34,442
• Household income: $65,480
• Rent vs Own: 35.3% rent · 64.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1235.0

Population outlook (Rankin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,317 people
• By 2030: 171,013 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 182,723 · +11.2%
• By 2050: 192,376 · +17.1%
• By 2075: 209,535 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 209,534 · +27.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 31% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rankin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.1) · D 25.9% · R 73.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.4pp toward D · 2008: -53.5pp · 2024: -47.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.1 2020: R+45.4 2016: R+52.9 2012: R+51.9 2008: R+53.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.11%
• Current HPI: 193.0609
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.34%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+217.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2026-06-06 Price Changed $149,000 MLSU
• 2026-05-07 Listed $155,000 MLSU
• 2021-10-04 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2019-05-29 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2019-03-05 Listed $85,000 MLSU
• 2006-03-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-02-01 Listed $47,000 MLSU

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,176 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.