913 W First St · Winslow, AZ 86047

$149,000

4 bd · 1.75 ba · 1,509 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 84 Days on market

Built 1961 4,792 sqft lot $99/sqft · 16% below area Est $178k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.9/30.0
• ARV discount +14.9/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

4-bedroom, 1.75-bath ranch-style home built in 1925 offering 1,509 sq ft of single-level living. This property is being sold as-is and needs TLC, making it a great opportunity for investors or buyers looking to add value. Features include a functional layout, generously sized rooms, and a 3/4 bath for added convenience. With classic character and solid potential, this home is well-suited for a renovation project, rental, or resale.

Key facts

• 4,792 sq ft lot
• Built 1961
• Listed 84 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.75-bath single-family listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $234 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $140k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 3.9% in Winslow — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#301 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Winslow Unified District (4387) (town): math 22% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #169 of 249 in AZ (top 68%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Jefferson Elementary School (376 students, 41% FRL); Winslow Junior High School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #119 of 218 statewide, top 55%, 309 students, 43% FRL); Winslow High School (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #232 of 381 statewide, top 63%, 675 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools at 40% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $76k (34%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $89k; list at $149k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.74%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $178,366
• List price: $149,000
• Delta: -10.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
909 N Park Dr	0.65mi	4/2.0	1,526 (+1%)	1mo	$210,000	$138	66
620 W Elm St	0.52mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,479 (-2%)	6mo	$190,000	$128	59
803 W Hillview St	0.63mi	4/2.0	1,484 (-2%)	12mo	$260,000	$175	57
400 W Third St	0.38mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,435 (-5%)	12mo	$212,000	$148	56
700 W Maple St	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,333 (-12%)	2mo	$124,000	$93	52
307 W Oak St	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,658 (+10%)	6mo	$150,000	$90	49
901 N Warren Ave	0.73mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,389 (-8%)	1mo	$217,500	$157	44
510 W Gilmore St	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,581 (+5%)	12mo	$235,000	$149	43
222 E Aspinwall St	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,381 (-8%)	4mo	$132,000	$96	42
219 W Elm St	0.64mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,345 (-11%)	4mo	$83,500	$62	40
401 N Kinsley Ave	0.59mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,298 (-14%)	2mo	$190,000	$146	39
601 W Gilmore St	0.66mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,302 (-14%)	11mo	$240,000	$184	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-9,198
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $11,304
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86047

• Home prices YoY: -12.1%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,600 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$186 /mo · $2,235/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $234

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,303

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $337	-5% $286	+0% $234	+5% $183	+10% $131
Rent	-10% $108	-5% $171	+0% $234	+5% $297	+10% $361
Rate	-1.0pp $309	-0.5pp $272	base $234	+0.5pp $196	+1.0pp $156

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
817 W Gilmore St Unit B Winslow, AZ	3.0	1.0	1144	$1,600	$1.40	45d	1	0.57mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $149,000 Active 84 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $160,000 Active 82 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 81 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 80 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 79 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $160,000 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $160,000 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $160,000 Active 71 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $160,000 Active 70 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $160,000 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $160,000 Active 66 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 65 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 64 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 63 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 62 DOM
17. 2026-04-28
    price $160,000 435-char remark

    Show marketing remark (435 chars)

    4-bedroom, 1.75-bath ranch-style home built in 1925 offering 1,509 sq ft of single-level living. This property is being sold as-is and needs TLC, making it a great opportunity for investors or buyers looking to add value. Features include a functional layout, generously sized rooms, and a 3/4 bath for added convenience. With classic character and solid potential, this home is well-suited for a renovation project, rental, or resale.

18. 2026-04-27
    price $160,000 435-char remark

    Show marketing remark (435 chars)

    4-bedroom, 1.75-bath ranch-style home built in 1925 offering 1,509 sq ft of single-level living. This property is being sold as-is and needs TLC, making it a great opportunity for investors or buyers looking to add value. Features include a functional layout, generously sized rooms, and a 3/4 bath for added convenience. With classic character and solid potential, this home is well-suited for a renovation project, rental, or resale.

19. 2026-03-30
    price $230,000 435-char remark

    Show marketing remark (435 chars)

    4-bedroom, 1.75-bath ranch-style home built in 1925 offering 1,509 sq ft of single-level living. This property is being sold as-is and needs TLC, making it a great opportunity for investors or buyers looking to add value. Features include a functional layout, generously sized rooms, and a 3/4 bath for added convenience. With classic character and solid potential, this home is well-suited for a renovation project, rental, or resale.

20. 2026-03-29
    listed $225,000 Active 435-char remark

    Show marketing remark (435 chars)

    4-bedroom, 1.75-bath ranch-style home built in 1925 offering 1,509 sq ft of single-level living. This property is being sold as-is and needs TLC, making it a great opportunity for investors or buyers looking to add value. Features include a functional layout, generously sized rooms, and a 3/4 bath for added convenience. With classic character and solid potential, this home is well-suited for a renovation project, rental, or resale.

21. 2026-03-27
    listed $230,000 Active 435-char remark

    Show marketing remark (435 chars)

    4-bedroom, 1.75-bath ranch-style home built in 1925 offering 1,509 sq ft of single-level living. This property is being sold as-is and needs TLC, making it a great opportunity for investors or buyers looking to add value. Features include a functional layout, generously sized rooms, and a 3/4 bath for added convenience. With classic character and solid potential, this home is well-suited for a renovation project, rental, or resale.

22. 2007-09-19
    soldstatus $89,000
23. 1999-03-08
    soldstatus $22,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$2,235
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,536
• − Management: −$1,536
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable income: $467
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$112
• After-tax cash flow: $2,699/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Winslow Unified District (4387)
• NCES district ID: 0409460
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,693
• Composite: 19.73/100
• National rank: #8713
• State rank: #169 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Winslow

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #301
• US rank: #24983

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winslow, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 13,913

Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,760 people
• By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.91)
• Race & ethnicity: Native American 56% Hispanic / Latino 24% White 17% Two or more races 12% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.38%
• Current HPI: 416.7534
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+627.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $160,000 WMMLS
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $160,000 NAZMLS
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $230,000 WMMLS
• 2026-03-29 Listed $225,000 WMMLS
• 2026-03-27 Listed $230,000 NAZMLS
• 2007-09-19 Sold (Public Records) $89,000 Public Records
• 1999-03-08 Sold (Public Records) $22,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $264 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.