39326 Recess Dr · Zephyrhills North, FL 33542

$59,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 408 sqft · Manufactured public records · 72 Days on market

Built 1991 $140/mo HOA

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Searching for the right minimalist, Tiny Home Lover looking for the Active Florida Lifestyle. Welcome to Country Aire Village, a 55+ Co-op Community. Monthly Fees $140.00 includes internet, cable television, water, sewer, amenities and more. This home is Tiny but Mighty and sporting all of it glorious 408 sqft. This park model home was built in 1991. Also a fantastic 12 x 12 Bonus room for crafting space, sitting room and what ever you need it to be. FREE parking for your R. V. or Boat in the 5 Acre lot. The Last two hurricanes were no match for this mighty little home as it sits high and dry on the North Side of the park. No power loss either due to the close proximity to the local hospita

Key facts

• Free parking for r v
• 5 acre lot
• Centrally located

Tags

• 12 X 12 BONUS ROOM
• FREE PARKING FOR R V
• 5 ACRE LOT
• SITS HIGH AND DRY
• CLOSE PROXIMITY TO HOSPITALS
• CENTRALLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No CDD (community development district); Lease restrictions not indicated; Furnished: negotiable
• Financial info: Monthly HOA $140 (total annual $1,680)
• HOA & community: Homeowners association 'Bonnie' with monthly fee of $140; Association fee includes cable TV, internet, management, pool, sewer, water, private road, common area taxes and recreational facilities; Association amenities: clubhouse, pool, spa/hot tub, pickleball and shuffleboard courts, recreation facilities, laundry; Association approval required; Senior community; Pets allowed with restrictions (cats and dogs allowed, breed/number/size limits; max pet weight 35 lbs)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected (private sewer); Cable connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide); One story; Faces north; Residential property
• Construction: Crawlspace foundation
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Vaulted ceilings; Skylights; Sliding doors; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and dryer; Dryer; Washer

🏢 Co-op / cooperative unit. The $59,900 price buys shares in the cooperative corporation, not the real estate itself — so it isn't comparable to a fee-simple sale price, and the cashflow / cap-rate / 1%-rule cards below (which assume you own the property and can rent it out) don't apply here. Expect board approval and a monthly maintenance fee on top of the price.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $366 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $56k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.6% vs local median 7.7% in Zephyrhills North — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#787 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.6%/yr); 294 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $414 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($56k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $60k implies a 110% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $56,306 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.83% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.19%
• DSCR: 2.17
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $10,468
• Equity at exit: $8,931

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $27,013
• Equity at exit: $5,179

Cash invested: $16,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33542

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Rents YoY: -3.6%
• Active inventory: 294
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,095 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$314
• Tax from tax record: −$20 /mo · $240/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$140
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$230
• Net cashflow: $366

Break-even live

Break-even rent $632

Max offer price $59,900

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,975
• Closing costs: $1,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
38706 Daughtery Rd Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	445	$974	$2.19	17d	2	0.88mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $140 · $1,680/yr
• Likely covers: watersewerinternetcable

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $59,900 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $59,900 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $59,900 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $59,900 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $59,900 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $59,900 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $59,900 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $59,900 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $59,900 Active 58 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $59,900 Active 57 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $59,900 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $59,900 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $59,900 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-05-15
    price $59,900
15. 2026-04-07
    listed $64,900 Active
16. 1998-03-04
    soldstatus $28,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $240 · $20/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $497 · $41/mo
• Expected delta: +$257/yr (+$21/mo · 106.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,142
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,355
• − Property taxes: −$240
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,051
• − Management: −$1,051
• − HOA: −$1,680
• − Depreciation: −$1,743
• Taxable income: $3,721
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$893
• After-tax cash flow: $3,500/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Zephyrhills North

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #787
• US rank: #18026

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Zephyrhills North, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,612
• Household income: $49,316
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 831.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.25%
• Current HPI: 313.3993
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.56%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+110.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $59,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-07 Listed $64,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-03-04 Sold (Public Records) $28,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $240 · +8.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.