2506 Carlow Ln · Lowry Crossing, TX 75407

$316,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,062 sqft · Other public records · 120 Days on market

Built 2026 4,792 sqft lot $154/sqft · at area comps Est $327k · at est. $100/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEW CONSTRUCTION Welcome to Ashford Crossing by Centex in Princeton, where your dream home awaits! Introducing the Coolidge plan. a stunning blend of elegance and comfort. This 4-bedroom, 3-bathroom home is thoughtfully designed with every detail in mind. Imagine unwinding on your charming, covered patio or retreating to your oversized owner’s suite, complete with a stylish tray ceiling. The upgraded secondary bedrooms and premium finishes in the bathrooms add a touch of luxury while the sun-drenched loft on the second level offers a perfect space for relaxation or play. Perfect for active families, this neighborhood provides a warm, close-knit atmosphere. Don’t miss the opportunity to make this exquisite home yours— Available April 2026!

Key facts

• Sun-drenched loft
• Tray ceiling
• Covered patio

Tags

• COVERED PATIO
• OWNER'S SUITE
• TRAY CEILING
• SUN-DRENCHED LOFT
• UPGRADED SECONDARY BEDROOMS
• PREMIUM FINISHES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $317k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-90 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $301k (5.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $236k (25.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $236k (25.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.3% in Lowry Crossing — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#718 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Princeton ISD (suburban): math 51% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #188 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Harper El (math 50% / reading 41%, grade D-, #1,112 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 436 students, 56% FRL); Clark Middle (math 53% / reading 42%, grade C-, #408 of 1,662 statewide, top 25%, 707 students, 66% FRL); Princeton H S (math 52% / reading 54%, grade C-, #437 of 1,632 statewide, top 27%, 1,521 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools at 60% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1410 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($288k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $28k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $236,033 (25.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.22%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $327,490
• List price: $316,990
• Delta: -3.21%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-64,133
• Equity at exit: $47,264

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-90,415
• Equity at exit: $27,408

Cash invested: $88,757 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75407

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1410
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,360 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,662
• Tax from tax record: −$60 /mo · $725/yr
• Insurance: −$132
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$496
• Net cashflow: $-90

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,474

Max offer price $301,067

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $89	-5% $0	+0% $-90	+5% $-180	+10% $-270
Rent	-10% $-277	-5% $-183	+0% $-90	+5% $3	+10% $96
Rate	-1.0pp $70	-0.5pp $-10	base $-90	+0.5pp $-172	+1.0pp $-256

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,248
• Closing costs: $9,510
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2440 Limerick Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1783	$1,998	$1.12	26d	1	0.06mi
1426 Tramore Way Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2429	$2,400	$0.99	45d	1	0.10mi
1403 Forever Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	2038	$2,250	$1.10	4d	1	0.39mi
1417 Forever Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1937	$2,100	$1.08	19d	1	0.40mi
1008 Honey Maple St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1825	$1,995	$1.09	26d	1	0.42mi
1006 Honey Maple St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1842	$1,950	$1.06	45d	1	0.43mi
1306 Colonial Bluff Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2185	$2,375	$1.09	0d	1	0.45mi
1306 Colonial Bluff Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2185	$2,375	$1.09	9d	1	0.45mi
1526 Forever Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	2618	$2,395	$0.91	6d	1	0.47mi
1526 Forever Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	2618	$2,495	$0.95	45d	1	0.47mi
1526 Forever Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	2618	$2,345	$0.90	23d	1	0.47mi
1306 Blossom Court Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2326	$2,500	$1.07	20d	1	0.50mi
1412 Chestnut Cove Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,000	$1.22	22d	1	0.55mi
1103 Wagon Wheel Way Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2193	$2,500	$1.14	45d	1	0.56mi
720 Willow View Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	2013	$2,250	$1.12	26d	1	0.63mi
717 Rawhide Way Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2193	$2,500	$1.14	45d	1	0.67mi
1209 Hopes Lake Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1931	$1,975	$1.02	5d	1	0.69mi
1209 Hopes Lake Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1931	$1,975	$1.02	0d	1	0.69mi
1316 Rusted Rail Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1931	$2,100	$1.09	45d	1	0.72mi
1307 Rusted Rail Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	2471	$2,200	$0.89	45d	1	0.74mi
627 Willow View Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1664	$2,000	$1.20	45d	1	0.74mi
615 Auburn Forest Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2330	$2,295	$0.98	3d	1	0.80mi
603 Calm Springs Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	2039	$2,250	$1.10	13d	1	0.81mi
603 Smokey Trl Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1622	$2,100	$1.29	20d	1	0.81mi
611 Saddle Club Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,100	$1.15	45d	1	0.81mi
606 Rawhide Way Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2338	$2,450	$1.05	4d	1	0.84mi
604 Saddle Club Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1592	$2,050	$1.29	45d	1	0.85mi
1117 Sunward Rd Princeton, TX	5.0	4.0	2987	$2,800	$0.94	45d	1	0.85mi
513 Spur Rdg Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1622	$2,200	$1.36	19d	1	0.86mi
907 Pink Skies Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2740	$2,599	$0.95	26d	1	0.91mi
2203 Heatwave Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2131	$2,080	$0.98	23d	1	0.92mi
507 Saddle Club Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	2014	$2,090	$1.04	14d	1	0.95mi
503 Willow View Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	2014	$2,149	$1.07	9d	1	0.95mi
408 Stampede Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,925	$1.07	45d	1	0.96mi
1136 Mimosa Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1987	$2,200	$1.11	45d	1	0.99mi
2230 Currents Rd Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1836	$2,099	$1.14	45d	1	1.00mi
1208 Sequoia Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,000	$1.09	45d	1	1.02mi
1443 Mesquite Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1996	$2,250	$1.13	45d	1	1.03mi
1204 Sequoia Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,165	$1.08	45d	1	1.03mi
420 Gunsmoke Trl Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1865	$1,975	$1.06	9d	1	1.04mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-08
   price $316,990 768-char remark

   Show marketing remark (768 chars)

   NEW CONSTRUCTION Welcome to Ashford Crossing by Centex in Princeton, where your dream home awaits! Introducing the Coolidge plan. a stunning blend of elegance and comfort. This 4-bedroom, 3-bathroom home is thoughtfully designed with every detail in mind. Imagine unwinding on your charming, covered patio or retreating to your oversized owner’s suite, complete with a stylish tray ceiling. The upgraded secondary bedrooms and premium finishes in the bathrooms add a touch of luxury while the sun-drenched loft on the second level offers a perfect space for relaxation or play. Perfect for active families, this neighborhood provides a warm, close-knit atmosphere. Don’t miss the opportunity to make this exquisite home yours— Available April 2026!

2. 2026-05-07
   price $316,990 241-char remark

   Show marketing remark (241 chars)

   Available April 2026! The versatile two-story Coolidge is built for families, with four bedrooms and second floor loft area. This home features upgrades such as quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and luxury vinyl plank flooring.

3. 2026-04-23
   price $319,990 241-char remark

   Show marketing remark (241 chars)

   Available April 2026! The versatile two-story Coolidge is built for families, with four bedrooms and second floor loft area. This home features upgrades such as quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and luxury vinyl plank flooring.

4. 2026-04-21
   price $319,990 768-char remark

   Show marketing remark (768 chars)

   NEW CONSTRUCTION Welcome to Ashford Crossing by Centex in Princeton, where your dream home awaits! Introducing the Coolidge plan. a stunning blend of elegance and comfort. This 4-bedroom, 3-bathroom home is thoughtfully designed with every detail in mind. Imagine unwinding on your charming, covered patio or retreating to your oversized owner’s suite, complete with a stylish tray ceiling. The upgraded secondary bedrooms and premium finishes in the bathrooms add a touch of luxury while the sun-drenched loft on the second level offers a perfect space for relaxation or play. Perfect for active families, this neighborhood provides a warm, close-knit atmosphere. Don’t miss the opportunity to make this exquisite home yours— Available April 2026!

5. 2026-04-17
   price $329,990 241-char remark

   Show marketing remark (241 chars)

   Available April 2026! The versatile two-story Coolidge is built for families, with four bedrooms and second floor loft area. This home features upgrades such as quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and luxury vinyl plank flooring.

6. 2026-04-14
   price $329,990 768-char remark

   Show marketing remark (768 chars)

   NEW CONSTRUCTION Welcome to Ashford Crossing by Centex in Princeton, where your dream home awaits! Introducing the Coolidge plan. a stunning blend of elegance and comfort. This 4-bedroom, 3-bathroom home is thoughtfully designed with every detail in mind. Imagine unwinding on your charming, covered patio or retreating to your oversized owner’s suite, complete with a stylish tray ceiling. The upgraded secondary bedrooms and premium finishes in the bathrooms add a touch of luxury while the sun-drenched loft on the second level offers a perfect space for relaxation or play. Perfect for active families, this neighborhood provides a warm, close-knit atmosphere. Don’t miss the opportunity to make this exquisite home yours— Available April 2026!

7. 2026-04-07
   price $340,860 241-char remark

   Show marketing remark (241 chars)

   Available April 2026! The versatile two-story Coolidge is built for families, with four bedrooms and second floor loft area. This home features upgrades such as quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and luxury vinyl plank flooring.

8. 2026-03-20
   price $339,990 241-char remark

   Show marketing remark (241 chars)

   Available April 2026! The versatile two-story Coolidge is built for families, with four bedrooms and second floor loft area. This home features upgrades such as quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and luxury vinyl plank flooring.

9. 2026-03-18
   price $339,990 768-char remark

   Show marketing remark (768 chars)

   NEW CONSTRUCTION Welcome to Ashford Crossing by Centex in Princeton, where your dream home awaits! Introducing the Coolidge plan. a stunning blend of elegance and comfort. This 4-bedroom, 3-bathroom home is thoughtfully designed with every detail in mind. Imagine unwinding on your charming, covered patio or retreating to your oversized owner’s suite, complete with a stylish tray ceiling. The upgraded secondary bedrooms and premium finishes in the bathrooms add a touch of luxury while the sun-drenched loft on the second level offers a perfect space for relaxation or play. Perfect for active families, this neighborhood provides a warm, close-knit atmosphere. Don’t miss the opportunity to make this exquisite home yours— Available April 2026!

10. 2026-02-04
    price $345,080 768-char remark

    Show marketing remark (768 chars)

    NEW CONSTRUCTION Welcome to Ashford Crossing by Centex in Princeton, where your dream home awaits! Introducing the Coolidge plan. a stunning blend of elegance and comfort. This 4-bedroom, 3-bathroom home is thoughtfully designed with every detail in mind. Imagine unwinding on your charming, covered patio or retreating to your oversized owner’s suite, complete with a stylish tray ceiling. The upgraded secondary bedrooms and premium finishes in the bathrooms add a touch of luxury while the sun-drenched loft on the second level offers a perfect space for relaxation or play. Perfect for active families, this neighborhood provides a warm, close-knit atmosphere. Don’t miss the opportunity to make this exquisite home yours— Available April 2026!

11. 2026-01-29
    listed $345,080 Active 241-char remark

    Show marketing remark (241 chars)

    Available April 2026! The versatile two-story Coolidge is built for families, with four bedrooms and second floor loft area. This home features upgrades such as quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and luxury vinyl plank flooring.

12. 2026-01-28
    listed $365,080 Active 768-char remark

    Show marketing remark (768 chars)

    NEW CONSTRUCTION Welcome to Ashford Crossing by Centex in Princeton, where your dream home awaits! Introducing the Coolidge plan. a stunning blend of elegance and comfort. This 4-bedroom, 3-bathroom home is thoughtfully designed with every detail in mind. Imagine unwinding on your charming, covered patio or retreating to your oversized owner’s suite, complete with a stylish tray ceiling. The upgraded secondary bedrooms and premium finishes in the bathrooms add a touch of luxury while the sun-drenched loft on the second level offers a perfect space for relaxation or play. Perfect for active families, this neighborhood provides a warm, close-knit atmosphere. Don’t miss the opportunity to make this exquisite home yours— Available April 2026!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $725 · $60/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,801 · $483/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,076/yr (+$423/mo · 700.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,324
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,756
• − Property taxes: −$725
• − Insurance: −$1,585
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,266
• − Management: −$2,266
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$9,222
• Taxable loss: −$6,695
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,607
• After-tax cash flow: $525/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Princeton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,827
• Composite: 42.44/100
• National rank: #3226
• State rank: #188 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lowry Crossing

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #718
• US rank: #13398

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,171
• Household income: $100,037
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 368.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 30% Black 17% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Mexico
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.99%
• Current HPI: 238.9373
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.02%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.2% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $316,990 NTREIS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $316,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $319,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $319,990 NTREIS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $329,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $329,990 NTREIS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $340,860 Zillow
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $339,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $339,990 NTREIS
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $345,080 NTREIS
• 2026-01-29 Listed $345,080 Zillow
• 2026-01-28 Listed $365,080 NTREIS

Property tax history

-3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $725 · -3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.